Why Shohei Ohtani Should Be The AL MVP Once Again
Today, we discuss how Shohei Ohtani has somehow managed to outdo himself in another fantastic season and the stats that back up him winning another MVP.
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Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
. . . In a game against the Oakland A’s on Tuesday night, Shohei Ohtani hit his 25th home run of the season. Per MLB.com’s Sarah Langs, Ohtani has the only two seasons in MLB history with 25-plus home runs as a batter and 150-plus strikeouts as a pitcher — both his 2022 and 2021 seasons. The closest Babe Ruth came to accomplishing this was in 1919, when he hit 29 home runs and struck out 30 batters.
With Ohtani earning his 10th win of the season, he and Ruth (1918) are also the only players in AL/NL history to hit 10 or more home runs and win 10 or more games in the same season.
. . . Earlier this season, Ohtani struck out 10 or more batters in six straight starts, which was one start shy of tying Nolan Ryan’s franchise record of seven straight such starts, set in 1977. The only pitchers in AL/NL history to have longer streaks of consecutive double-digit strikeout starts are Pedro Martínez, Randy Johnson, Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander.
Leading Off
Yes, Shohei Ohtani Is Still The AL MVP
By Daniel R. Epstein
All stats entering play on Tuesday
Winning an MVP award is extremely difficult, but earning a second one is even harder to accomplish. A year ago, the novelty of Shohei Ohtani dominating as both a pitcher and a hitter was the talk of baseball, and he won the American League MVP unanimously. This year, he has been just as spectacular, but doesn’t have nearly the same amount of hype.
Let’s start on the pitching side, where he has a strong case as a Cy Young contender. He leads all of MLB with a 35.9 percent strikeout rate, 30.3 percent strikeout-to-walk percentage, and 13.0 strikeouts per nine innings (minimum 100 innings). His 6.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio is third in the AL. Baseball Prospectus’ DRA- is one of the most comprehensive public-facing pitching stats, and his 61 is tops in MLB among starting pitchers. In fact, only three relievers have a better DRA- despite throwing much fewer innings. His 3.1 WARP as a pitcher is second in the AL to Shane McClanahan by a hair (3.3). They could easily trade places before the end of the season.
In 2021, Ohtani shined brighter in the batter's box, where he belted 46 home runs, than he did on the mound. This year, it’s the other way around, but he’s still having an excellent season at the plate, slashing .253/.344/.492 with 24 home runs and 11 stolen bases. His 134 OPS+ means his offense is 34 percent better than a league-average hitter, even if it’s down from 157 last season. Baseball Prospectus credits him with 2.2 WARP as a position player.
Combining his WARP in both roles gives him 5.3 in total. If he maintains this pace, he will finish the season with 7.8 WARP. That is an exact match for his 2021 WARP: 5.0 as a hitter, and 2.2 as a pitcher. For context, the second-best player by WARP last season was Juan Soto, who accumulated 7.7. On the pitching side, Zack Wheeler led the way with 5.5. No other AL player amassed more than 5.7 as either a pitcher or a hitter.
Admittedly, the competition is stiffer this year. Aaron Judge’s barrage of home runs has earned 6.4 WARP thus far, putting him on pace for 9.4 over the full season. Judge also has the all-important narrative advantage. Ohtani is just as brilliant as ever, but not quite as novel. Meanwhile, Judge plays for a Yankees team that will push for the World Series. As October gets closer and Judge creeps towards the AL record of 61 home runs, he will increase his visibility while Ohtani, stuck on an abysmal Angels team, will recede below the proverbial fold.
Regardless of your own personal criteria for the MVP award, Ohtani remains both the best and most valuable player in the game. It’s important to note that any version of WAR should only ever be the beginning of a conversation rather than the culmination of one. Clearly, he is worth more than the sum of his parts. He essentially gives his team an extra roster spot as he continues to accomplish feats previously considered impossible. As long as he excels as both a pitcher and a position player -- and stays healthy -- he should always win the MVP.
Daniel R. Epstein serves as co-director of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America. He writes for Baseball Prospectus, Off the Bench Baseball, and Bronx Pinstripes. Follow him on Twitter @depstein1983.