Who Is the Best Prospect in MLB Right Now?
A composite list of multiple baseball prospect lists show interesting prospects of note
IBWAA members love to write about baseball. So much so, we've decided to create our own newsletter about it! Subscribe to Here's the Pitch to expand your love of baseball, discover new voices, and support independent writing. Original content six days a week, straight to your inbox and straight from the hearts of baseball fans.
Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
. . . The first modern top “prospect” list was published by Baseball America in 1990. Steve Avery, a left-handed pitcher with the Braves, ranked first overall. Hall of Fame players on that initial list included Frank Thomas (29) and Larry Walker (42).
. . . In the thirty-five Baseball America lists, only four players have ranked top overall twice - Andruw Jones, Joe Mauer, Bryce Harper, and Wander Franco. The Braves have had the most top-ranked players with six.
Leading Off
Combined Prospect Lists Show Interesting Information
By Benjamin Chase
To many baseball fans, they seem to be everywhere - top prospect lists! Not only are there lists from long-time respected publications, but prospect-centered websites each have their own interpretation of a top 100 list.
With more than one hundred prospect lists out there, a composite list to truly find who the best overall prospects in the game would be excellent...so that's just what I did!
The Method
Six lists were chosen to be the benchmark lists. These are not lists chosen based on any personal favoritism or a tie to any of the websites publishing the lists. On the contrary, some of my personal favorite lists were not chosen, and I'm not exactly a fan of the methodology of each list used here.
That all said, each of these lists has a level of reverence that has been developed over years of producing top 100 lists. The six chosen were Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, Fangraphs, Keith Law, and MLB Pipeline (some lists may require a subscription).
While the players were averaged, the method used to rank which player was the highest consensus player was a points system. Each player was assigned 101 points and then his ranking was subtracted from that number. So, for instance, the third-ranked player on a list would receive 98 points (101-3) for his appearance on that list.
The Top Ten
With that all said, 10 players set themselves apart, with a pretty natural progression down in points to the end of this list and then a 20-point leap to No. 11.
1. Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles, 600 points. Holliday was the top choice in every list used. Pretty easy top guy overall.
2. Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers, 589 points. Chourio was the second-ranked guy on four of six lists, with Baseball Prospectus having him lowest at sixth overall.
3. Junior Caminero, IF, Tampa Bay Rays, 584 points. Caminero got a big league taste last year and has some of the most prodigious power in the minors. He was ranked third on three of the six lists.
4. Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas Rangers, 581 points. Langford was ranked as high as second (twice) and as low as sixth (twice) to finish in this spot.
5. Dylan Crews, OF, Washington Nationals, 567 points. The second pick in the 2023 draft was ranked between fifth and ninth on the six lists.
6. Evan Carter, OF, Texas Rangers, 566 points. Barely behind Crews, Carter's 12th overall rank by Fangraphs likely dropped him a spot as he was ranked fourth in two lists.
7. Ethan Salas, C, San Diego Padres, 561 points. The teenage catcher was ranked as high as three (Keith Law) and as low as 12 (Baseball Prospectus) after reaching Double-A in his age-17 season.
8. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates, 558 points. The top pick in the 2023 draft ranked as high as third overall (MLB Pipeline).
9. Jordan Lawlar, IF, Arizona Diamondbacks, 545 points. Lawlar got postseason experience with Arizona last year but may not have an MLB job to open the 2024 season.
10. James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals, 538 points. Wood is incredibly talented, has all the right looks, but has some things yet to prove to some evaluators as he ranged from sixth to 19th in lists.
Who's Who of the Rest
155 total players made one of the five lists. Here are some breakdowns of interesting players of note for one reason or another:
Lowest ranked player that appeared on all six lists - Bryce Eldridge, OF, San Francisco Giants, 81 points.
Highest ranked player that appeared on five lists - Adael Amador, SS, Colorado Rockies, 363 points.
Highest ranked player that appeared on four lists - Colton Cowser, OF, Baltimore Orioles, 250 points.
Highest ranked player that appeared on three lists - Josue De Paula, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers, 162 points.
Highest ranked player that appeared on two lists - River Ryan, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, 147 points.
Highest ranked player that appeared on one list - Zach Dezenzo, IF, Houston Astros, 61 points.
List Breakdown
You can see the entire Google Sheet here. When reviewing the lists, a few things popped up.
Fangraphs had the most players that they were highest on of all the lists with 31. Baseball America had the least amount of guys that they were highest on, with 19.
The list with the most players that were lowest, but still on the list was Keith Law's list, with 20. Baseball America only had two players on their list who they were the lowest on among all rankers.
Each list had either 54 or 55 players unranked, due to Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs each having a 101st player on their overall list.
Hopefully, this was enjoyable reading, and you can review the spreadsheet linked above for plenty of interesting takes from the combination of the lists!
Benjamin Chase is a reporter in rural South Dakota. He also is co-editor for the IBWAA Here's the Pitch newsletter, writes for Rotoballer, and is the co-host of the Pallazzo Podcast Prospect show each week. He can be found on most social medias under biggentleben.
Extra Innings
It’s a rare thing that a player is still a prospect and makes a postseason impact, but that’s exactly what Texas outfielder Evan Carter did in 2023: