You Don't Want To Be On This List: Prospects Trending In The Wrong Direction
Today, we look at a handful of prospects that may be on their way to "down and out" after being described as "up and coming" leading into the 2022 season.
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Pregame Pepper - Eyes On The Minor Leagues
Leading Off
Prospect Panic Time!
By Benjamin Chase
Sunday completed six weeks of the 2022 minor league season. That gives some level of surety to what has been seen this season so far. Players that have succeeded haven't simply had a hot series or two, likewise, those who have struggled haven't just struggled for a week or two at this point.
At the end of April, we looked at top performers who had underlying numbers that suggested that their early performances could be real. Here, we'll look at nine prospects that have struggled early that have signs that it may be time to be worried about the entirety of their 2022 season. Each of these prospects was considered an organizational top-30 prospect entering the season.
Jordy Barley, Washington Nationals
Barley was originally signed by the Padres out of the Dominican. He's got a tremendous amount of raw tools, and he made huge strides last season when he was able to steal 45 bases and power out 10 home runs, with no real change when he was acquired by Washington midseason in the Daniel Hudson trade. This year, Barley is quite literally posting the lowest wRC+ of any qualified hitter as he is hitting .157/.202/.225. He's got a 5.3% walk rate and a 35.1% strikeout rate. No matter how impressive the speed may be, as the old saying goes, you cannot steal first base.
Andrew Dalquist, Chicago White Sox
Dalquist was drafted by the White Sox out of high school in 2019 with a big fastball and equally big struggles with control. The control struggles are still there, but the fastball now sits mid-90s at the top end, with no standout secondary pitch. He has struggled at High-A this season, with his 8.25 ERA supported by a 13% strikeout rate that's actually lower than his 14.8% walk rate. Hitters are also teeing off on Dalquist, as he’s given up four home runs in 24 innings.
Bryce Jarvis, Arizona Diamondbacks
When the Diamondbacks selected Jarvis 18th overall in the 2020 draft, a number of fanbases were disappointed as he had received many glowing reports. However, Jarvis was a pitcher that made a big leap forward in the shortened 2020 college season, but he's not been able to carry those changes forward as a pro. Jarvis is touching 97 with his fastball still, but the spin on the pitch and his command of the pitch have taken a significant step back. His strikeout rate this season has dropped to 18.6%, which is really below the level that would be successful for any major league pitcher.
Luis Matos, San Francisco Giants
Matos jumped onto top-100 lists coming into this season, ranking as high as the top-30 overall. He's shown elite bat speed and the ability to handle all three outfield spots defensively. He had 51 extra base hits in 109 games in 2021. This season, he has yet to record an extra base hit. His strikeout rate is still low, thanks in large part to his bat speed allowing him the ability to foul off plenty of balls, but he has adjusted his swing to attempt to generate more power, and instead, it's led to a ton of pop-ups. A return to his previous swing is desperately needed but may require the offseason to reset.
Erick Pena, Kansas City Royals
Pena was signed for nearly a $4 million bonus out of the Dominican in 2019, one of the top bonuses in the entire international signing class. He then flashed incredible power in his first instructs in Arizona, getting people drooling over his potential. Coming out of the pandemic, however, he struggled to make contact. This season, he's struck out at an incredible 45.3% rate. While few in the minors hit the ball with more raw power than Pena when he does connect, the swing and miss is such a problem that he has some significant concerns over his potential future at this point.
Robert Puason, Oakland Athletics
The Braves were cited in their punishment in 2017 for inappropriate negotiations with Puason, who would have been 14 at the time. Puason ended up getting the top bonus of the 2019 international class, $5 million. He has struggled ever since to live up to those high expectations. The crazy part is that his strikeout rate has significantly improved this year, but is still at 29.6%. He's still posting one of the lowest wRC+ numbers of any qualified hitters in the minor leagues. How long the A's will be able to continue giving Puason chances remains to be seen.
Chris Vallimont, Minnesota Twins
Acquired from the Miami Marlins along with Sergio Romo in 2019 as the Twins were attempting to get to the playoffs, Vallimont had a big season in 2019, striking out 150 over 127 2/3 innings in his first full pro season. It's been a struggle for Vallimont to locate his impressive raw stuff every since. He has the highest qualified ERA right now in the minor leagues, and it's no mystery why, as he has posted more walks than strikeouts along with a half-dozen wild pitches on the season. From the eye test, his delivery simply has a number of "hitch" points within it that didn't exist in 2019. It may take completely breaking down his delivery and rebuilding it to allow for Vallimont to recover his control.
Cole Winn, Texas Rangers
One of the top prep arms in the 2018 draft, Winn had a forgettable 2019 before the pandemic, but his 2021 caught the eyes of many evaluators, and he was a consensus top-100 guy before this season, ranked as high as top-50 overall. He's sporting an ERA over six in Triple-A this season, and while we've highlighted a couple of other pitchers with more walks than strikeouts, Winn is the only qualified pitcher in the minors who has that notoriety right now, with a 14.8% walk rate and a 14.1% strikeout rate. Winn's had this high ERA in 2022 while posting an abnormally low home run rate as well, so it could actually be worse!
Gage Workman, Detroit Tigers
The "other" Arizona State infielder the Detroit Tigers drafted in 2020, Workman was more well-known for his defensive chops coming out of college. He is an impressive raw athlete, but he's struggled with his swing and miss since his college days. The glove has allowed him to move forward to Double-A this season, but so far, he's posting one of the top-five highest strikeout rates among qualified minor league hitters, with a 43% strikeout rate this season. Even with a .310 BABIP this year, he's only posting a .188 batting average. Workman has become a hitter of extremes, with 86.2% of his batted balls going into the ground or fly balls. Using his raw power with a line drive stroke could undoubtedly allow for much more success.
Benjamin Chase is a newspaper reporter in small-town South Dakota. He loves to write about baseball, specifically minor league baseball and prospects, primarily at his own website, videobaseballscout.com. You can find him on Twitter @biggentleben.