What We've Learned So Far From the 2024 Arizona Fall League
One of IBWAA's co-directors examines the early returns from the 2024 Arizona Fall League season
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Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
. . . Last season’s Arizona Fall League had 24 players who spent time in the major leagues this season. Of those, 20 made their Major League debut in 2024, with the other four having limited MLB time before heading to the AFL in 2023. Five 2023 AFL alums played in the 2024 MLB Postseason, including Ben Casparius of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who started Game 4 of the World Series.
. . . Subjectively, the biggest impact in the 2024 season from a 2023 alum of the AFL was Washington Nationals lefty DJ Herz, who opened the 2024 season in Triple-A, where he had success but also had significant control concerns. He was put into the Nationals’ rotation on June 4 and finished the season with 19 starts, 88 2/3 innings pitched, a 4.16 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 106/36 K/BB ratio, likely locking Herz into a rotation spot for the 2025 Nationals’ plans.
Leading Off
Lessons Learned from 2024 Arizona Fall League
By Benjamin Chase
The 2024 Arizona Fall League (AFL) has had plenty of exciting moments. For those who have been consumed with the MLB Postseason (and it was a good one!) and have not had the opportunity to watch any AFL games this season, there are plenty that are still available to watch on MLB’s streaming site.
With the season heading into its final stretch, what have we learned from the 2024 Arizona Fall League? Here are three things…
1. Caleb Durbin Is Going To Be Fun
Though speedster Victor Scott II got a lot of the headlines last AFL season for his raw speed, the guy who actually led the AFL in stolen bases in 2023 was Yankees infield prospect Caleb Durbin. After a fractured wrist eliminated much of the 2024 season for Durbin, he’s back this season and he’s already surpassed last year.
With 22 steals, Durbin has moved into the second-most steals in an AFL season, and he has two weeks to accumulate just three more. Impressively, Durbin has been caught just once despite teams having a strong idea what he’s doing once he gets on base.
Durbin was originally drafted by the Atlanta Braves and was traded to the Yankees in the 2022 offseason. He’s going to fight for a utility bench spot in Spring Training, and with his ability to handle shortstop and his impressive ability on the basepaths, he could certainly provide a spark off the bench for the Yankees - or someone else if he ends up moved before Opening Day.
Oh, and he’s not ALL speed:
2. Andrew Painter Is Still A Beast
Rewind back to Spring Training 2023, and Andrew Painter was considered among the top ten prospects in the game after reaching Double-A as a 19-year-old and striking out 155 over 103 2/3 dominant innings across three levels. He showed up that spring and was a finalist for an Opening Day rotation job before the nightmare scenario for a pitching prospect happened - his elbow popped.
Painter missed all of the 2023 season and the 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. His appearances in the AFL this year are his first competitive pitches since Spring Training 2023. He’s been nothing short of dominant, as the 6’7” righty has pitched just 10 innings in four appearances, but he’s flashed big stuff and struck out 10 with just one walk.
His performances have drawn such attention that Phillies team management recently came out to level Phillies fans’ expectations of Painter heading into 2025, but once he’s turned fully loose, he will definitely be one to watch!
3. The 2025 Season Will Feature Many 2024 AFL Performers
The 2024 season had plenty of 2023 AFL alums reaching the majors, and depending on your definition of “impact”, the 2024 alums could have quite a bit more impact in the upcoming season.
Of course, part of that is the injury recovery work that established MLB players such as Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are doing this year in Arizona, but even NOT counting them, there are a number of players who have already put themselves in good position to have a big role in their team’s 2025 plans.
Niko Kavadas got his feet wet in MLB to end the year for the Angels (30 games), but his whiff rate was concerning, prompting the Angels to send him to the AFL. He’s been one of the most discerning hitters this year in the league while also tying for second in home runs through Sunday with six. Fellow 2024 debut Thomas Saggase was overmatched in a brief look with the Cardinals, but his .431/.554/.657 line over 14 games includes filling up nearly every statistical category, putting Saggese in position to compete for at-bats in St. Louis in 2025.
The Chicago White Sox recently declined Yoan Moncada’s option, opening up third base for the team, and top prospect Colson Montgomery is recovering after a rough showing during the regular season with a tremendous line in the AFL while also primarily playing third base - perhaps an indication of the team’s plans? Team rumors could also get louder due to AFL performance in Texas as the trade rumors for Adolis Garcia will get much louder due to the impressive play of outfielder Alejandro Osuna.
Numerous other players have shone in their AFL time thus far, but remember that Ben Casparius was the second-worst qualified pitcher last season in the AFL in ERA, but he started a World Series game. There could be plenty of gems to come from this 2024 AFL talent pool.
If you’d like to get a chance to preview the players who could impact the 2025 season ahead of the game, the AFL is heading into its final two weeks of play. This coming weekend will be the annual Fall Stars game, highlighting the top players participating in the AFL this season. The next weekend will feature a pair of semifinal games and the league’s championship game, to be played on Nov. 16 at 8 p.m. Eastern.
Benjamin Chase is the co-director for IBWAA and one of the co-editors of the Here’s the Pitch newsletter. His “day job” is as a newspaper reporter in rural South Dakota, but he still dedicates time to baseball writing on his Medium page, Chasing Baseball Greatness, and is the co-host of the Pallazzo Podcast prospect show. He can be found on most social media platforms under the username biggentleben.
Extra Innings
Here’s the Pitch co-editor Dan Schlossberg put together a collection of the best articles from the newsletter and, on Nov. 15, that book will be available to the public. The cost is $24.95, and preorders can be made on the ACTA site.
