Seattle, We Have a Problem
An IBWAA member examines the status of the Seattle franchise.
Pregame Pepper
. . . Today is the Major League Baseball midseason trade deadline, with all deals needing to be submitted to the commissioner’s office by 6 p.m. ET. A number of big names are already off the market.
. . . The biggest movement over the weekend was in the starting pitcher market. The Los Angeles Dodgers acquired the biggest trade piece of the deadline, left-handed starter Tarik Skubal, from the Tigers for three prospects. The New York Mets sent away struggling starter Freddy Peralta to the Tampa Bay Rays for three prospects; Luis Castillo went from Seattle to the White Sox for a pair of big leaguers to offset costs and a catching prospect. Veteran Kevin Gausman was traded to the Cubs for two prospects. Many more will likely move today in the starting pitching market.
. . . That isn’t to say that the weekend was all about starting pitchers. The Mets traded two notable relievers, sending Huascar Brazoban to the White Sox and AJ Minter to the Twins. The Pirates acquired reliever Camilo Doval from the Yankees. Infielder Luis Garcia Jr. was dealt from the Nationals to the Yankees for four pitchers.
. . . Keep your eyes on social media and MLB sources today for plenty of action to come!
Leading Off
Seattle, We Have a Problem
By Miguel Riera
When the Seattle Mariners captured the American League West title in 2025, it felt as though the organization had finally found a sustainable formula for winning. The core of the roster remained intact, key additions strengthened the club, and Seattle continued to boast one of baseball’s strongest farm systems.
Everything pointed toward another run at October.
Four months later, the picture looks very different.
The Mariners entered the All-Star break atop the AL West. Today, they sit in third place, outside the Wild Card picture, facing far more questions than answers. The decision to trade Luis Castillo for reliever Seranthony Domínguez sent perhaps the clearest message yet: rather than acting as an aggressive buyer before the trade deadline, Seattle has begun making moves with an eye toward balancing both its current roster and its immediate future.
That does not mean the season is over.
But it does suggest the organization’s outlook has changed far more quickly than anyone expected back in spring training.
It would be easy to blame everything on performance.
The reality is more complicated.
Injuries have shaped Seattle’s season almost from Opening Day.
Julio Rodríguez, J.P. Crawford, Cal Raleigh, Brendan Donovan, Rob Refsnyder, Matt Brash, and Carlos Vargas have all spent significant time on the injured list, forcing manager Dan Wilson to constantly reshape both his lineup and bullpen. Rarely has Seattle been able to field the roster it envisioned entering the season.
Still, injuries alone do not explain everything.
Several players simply failed to perform at the level the organization expected.
Josh Naylor never became the middle-of-the-order bat Seattle envisioned. Rob Refsnyder failed to solve the club’s long-standing need for right-handed production against left-handed pitching. Brendan Donovan showed flashes before his injury but never had the opportunity to establish himself as the versatile contributor the Mariners believed they had acquired.
Meanwhile, Randy Arozarena and Cole Young carried much of the club’s offensive and defensive workload while Seattle searched for answers almost every week.
And over the course of a 162-game season, consistency almost always outweighs talent.
That may be the biggest difference between Seattle and Houston.
The Astros dealt with injuries, underperformance, and roster turnover of their own. Yet manager Joe Espada found a way to keep his club competitive and eventually reclaim first place in the division. The Texas Rangers, meanwhile, steadily improved as the season progressed, creating another obstacle in an increasingly competitive AL West.
Seattle, by contrast, gradually lost ground.
Ironically, the organization’s most encouraging developments have not come at T-Mobile Park.
They have come from the minor leagues.
The promotions of Lázaro Montes and Michael Arroyo to Triple-A Tacoma represent another milestone for one of baseball’s premier player development systems. Behind them, prospects such as Kade Anderson, Ryan Sloan, and Felnin Celesten continue to emerge, reinforcing the belief that Seattle’s long-term foundation remains exceptionally strong.
That depth also explains why several of those names have surfaced in trade speculation. Whether the Mariners choose to add major league help or continue building internally, the organization still possesses one of the game’s most valuable collections of young talent.
But before looking ahead to 2027, there is still unfinished business in 2026.
Matt Brash has already begun his rehabilitation assignment. Carlos Vargas is nearing a return. Brendan Donovan is expected back in the coming weeks, while the arrival of Seranthony Domínguez provides much-needed reinforcement for a bullpen that has spent most of the season trying to compensate for missing pieces.
Perhaps that is the greatest irony of Seattle’s season.
The Mariners do not need to discover talent.
The talent is already there.
What they need is the opportunity to finally have that talent on the field at the same time.
Because Seattle’s biggest problem has never been a lack of ability.
It has been the inability to keep together the roster that Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander envisioned when they built this club during the offseason.
Injuries, underperformance, and inconsistency disrupted the balance of a team that entered the year expecting to defend its division title.
And yet, the story has not been fully written.
Houston now controls the division, and Texas remains a dangerous challenger, but Seattle still has enough talent to make one final push. Doing so will require finding, over the next two months, the consistency that eluded the club throughout the first four.
If the returning players can stay healthy, and if Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, and Julio Rodríguez rediscover the production expected of them while Randy Arozarena and Cole Young continue performing at a high level, the Mariners still have the pieces to change the direction of a season that once promised so much more.
Because in the end, Seattle’s greatest opponent has not been Houston.
Nor Texas.
Not even the weight of expectations.
It has been its inability to become, even once, the team it was built to be.
Miguel Riera is an IBWAA member and covers baseball for Lineup al Dia. He can be found on a number of platforms, including YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok. Riera is a member of the IBWAA and SABR, and is currently enrolled in the Baseball General Manager & Scouting program at Sports Management Worldwide (SMWW).
Extra Innings
The newly-formed Women’s Pro Baseball League (WPBL) kicked off play over the weekend. Kelsie Whitmore, who has been a trailblazer for women playing baseball in the modern era, recorded a touching YouTube short with one of the last living members of the AAGPBL who played primarily during World War II, Maybelle Blair. Whitmore then caught Blair’s first pitch to kick off the season.
Know Your Editors
Here’s the Pitch is published daily except Sundays and holidays. Benjamin Chase [biggentleben@hotmail.com] handles the Monday issue with Dan Freedman [dfreedman@lionsgate.com] editing Tuesday and Jeff Kallman [easyace1955@outlook.com] at the helm Wednesday and Thursday. Original editor Dan Schlossberg [ballauthor@gmail.com], does the weekend editions on Friday and Saturday. Former editor Elizabeth Muratore [nymfan97@gmail.com] is now co-director [with Benjamin Chase and Jonathan Becker] of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America, which publishes this newsletter and the annual ACTA book of the same name. Readers are encouraged to contribute comments, articles, and letters to the editor. HtP reserves the right to edit for brevity, clarity, and good taste.