Seattle Mariners: Building for the Future While Searching for Answers Today
An IBWAA member examines the build of the Seattle franchise.
Pregame Pepper
. . . Today is the birthday of one MLB Hall of Famer, soon to be two. The current Hall of Famer is not one that would typically roll off the tongue of your average baseball fan. Stan Coveleski. Coveleski pitched in his first full MLB season at age 26, but he would go on to be one of the most dominant pitchers of the 1920s in the game. When all was said and done, Coveleski had a 14-year career, tallying 215 wins over more than 3,000 innings. His lifetime mark of a 2.89 ERA ranks in the top 30 of starting pitchers who threw more than 3,000 innings in the game. He passed away in 1984 at age 94.
. . . The likely Hall of Famer celebrating a birthday today is longtime St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina, who turns 44. He will be eligible for voting for the first time on the 2028 ballot, and he and longtime teammate Albert Pujols could go in together on the first ballot. Molina’s defensive excellence ranks among the best all time behind the plate, and he was able to finish a 19-year career with 2,168 hits.
Leading Off
Seattle Mariners: Building for the Future While Searching for Answers Today
By Miguel Riera
The Seattle Mariners entered the 2026 season with a clear objective: defend their American League West title and take another step toward reaching the World Series after falling just short of baseball’s biggest stage a year ago.
On paper, the roster looked even stronger than the one that captured the division championship in 2025. President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto and General Manager Justin Hollander retained one of Major League Baseball’s deepest starting rotations while adding experienced pieces designed to bring more balance and versatility to an offense that appeared ready to take the next step.
But baseball rarely follows the script.
As the club reaches the All-Star break, Seattle owns a 47-49 record, having surrendered first place in the AL West after spending much of May and early June atop the division. The Texas Rangers now lead the standings, while the Houston Astros have once again reminded everyone why they remain one of the toughest organizations to count out.
Seattle’s first half cannot be explained by one single issue. Injuries disrupted the club’s plans almost immediately, several expected offensive contributors failed to perform, and the organization once again leaned on what has become one of its greatest strengths: an elite player development system.
A roster that never had the chance to settle
Depth was supposed to be one of Seattle’s biggest advantages entering 2026.
The addition of Brendan Donovan was viewed as one of the organization’s most important offseason moves. His defensive versatility and high-contact approach were expected to provide stability throughout the infield while reducing some of the offensive burden carried by Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh.
The early returns were exactly what Seattle hoped for.
In just 25 games, Donovan posted a .274 batting average, .386 on-base percentage, .839 OPS, and a 141 OPS+, quickly becoming one of the lineup’s most valuable players.
Then the injuries arrived.
Donovan’s absence was followed by time missed from J.P. Crawford, while Seattle recently lost another cornerstone when Julio Rodríguez entered concussion protocol after suffering a frightening collision while attempting to advance to third base.
Utility infielder Miles Mastrobuoni, expected to provide valuable depth throughout the season, also spent significant time on the injured list.
As a result, manager Scott Servais rarely had the opportunity to field the lineup Seattle envisioned during Spring Training.
An offense that never found consistency
Injuries explain part of the story.
The other part lies in the performance of the hitters expected to anchor Seattle’s offense.
Following his historic 2025 campaign, some statistical regression from Cal Raleigh was inevitable. Few, however, anticipated a decline of this magnitude.
At the All-Star break, Raleigh is hitting just .168 with nine home runs, 29 RBIs, a .580 OPS, and a 67 OPS+—numbers far removed from the middle-of-the-order force who powered Seattle’s offense one season ago.
A similar story has unfolded for Josh Naylor.
After playing a pivotal role following his arrival in 2025 and earning a five-year contract extension, the first baseman has struggled to provide the production Seattle expected from one of its middle-of-the-order bats. Through 89 games, Naylor owns a .251 batting average, eight home runs, 36 RBIs, and a .668 OPS.
Another offseason move simply never paid off.
Seattle acquired Rob Refsnyder hoping his right-handed bat would provide balance against left-handed pitching for a lineup heavily built around left-handed hitters.
That plan never materialized.
Before landing on the injured list, Refsnyder was batting .133 with a .422 OPS, a 22 OPS+, and -1.1 WAR, making him one of the least productive acquisitions of the offseason.
Collectively, those struggles are reflected in the club’s offensive profile. Seattle enters the break hitting .229 as a team with a .688 OPS and a 97 OPS+, production well below what is typically expected from a division contender.
Bright spots emerged despite the adversity
While much of the conversation has centered on injuries and underperforming veterans, Seattle also found several unexpected contributors who helped keep the club competitive.
The best example has been Randy Arozarena.
The Cuban-Mexican outfielder has become Seattle’s most consistent offensive player and the lineup’s unquestioned catalyst. He enters the break slashing .288/.382/.453 with a .835 OPS, 10 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 140 OPS+, establishing himself as one of the American League’s most complete outfielders.
If Arozarena has been Seattle’s offensive leader, Dominic Canzone has arguably been its biggest surprise.
Given expanded opportunities throughout the season, Canzone has responded by becoming one of the club’s most productive hitters. His 15 home runs, .863 OPS, and 144 OPS+ have provided much-needed production for an offense searching for consistency.
Luke Raley has also exceeded expectations.
His 14 home runs and .453 slugging percentage have supplied valuable power and depth to a lineup that has spent much of the season looking for offensive answers.
Emerson Hancock changed the conversation about Seattle’s rotation
If the offense has raised questions, the starting rotation has once again reminded everyone why it remains the foundation of the organization.
When Bryce Miller went down with an injury, Emerson Hancock stepped into the rotation and delivered the best stretch of his major league career.
Across 17 starts, Hancock has posted a 6-4 record, a 3.23 ERA, 97.2 innings pitched, 92 strikeouts, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 123 ERA+, establishing himself as one of Seattle’s most reliable starters during the first half.
His emergence has fundamentally changed the conversation surrounding Seattle’s rotation.
With Bryce Miller now healthy and Luis Castillo enduring one of the most difficult seasons of his Mariners tenure—a 3-8 record and 4.93 ERA—Seattle suddenly finds itself with something every contender covets: starting pitching depth.
As the trade deadline approaches, that depth could become one of Jerry Dipoto’s most valuable assets should the front office decide to pursue the impact right-handed bat this lineup still appears to need.
Seattle’s Player Development System Continues to Deliver
If the first half raised questions about the major league roster, it also reinforced something the Mariners have spent years building: one of baseball’s strongest player development systems.
Once injuries forced Seattle to look beyond its 26-man roster, the organization once again found answers from within.
The first name is Colt Emerson.
Regarded as one of the franchise’s cornerstone prospects since being selected in the 2023 MLB Draft, Emerson signed a landmark contract extension before establishing himself in the big leagues—a clear indication of how highly Seattle values his long-term potential. His promotion came sooner than expected following injuries to Brendan Donovan and J.P. Crawford, and while he is still adjusting to Major League pitching, he has already shown why the organization believes he can become a foundational player.
Through his first 45 games, Emerson has hit seven home runs, driven in 20 runs, and demonstrated the defensive versatility to play both shortstop and third base.
But Emerson is only one chapter in a much larger story.
At High-A Everett, Felnin Celesten continues to establish himself as one of the system’s most intriguing middle infield prospects. Alongside him, Jonny Farmelo and Carlos Jiménez have continued their offensive development, while catcher Luke Stevenson remains one of the organization’s most promising long-term projects.
Double-A Arkansas has been home to perhaps the organization’s biggest pitching success stories this season.
Both Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan earned selections to the 2026 All-Star Futures Game, with Anderson receiving the honor of starting the game—a reflection of the reputation he has built throughout the scouting community during an outstanding season.
The most significant promotions, however, came in Triple-A.
In recent weeks, both Lázaro Montes and Michael Arroyo earned promotions to the Tacoma Rainiers, placing them just one step away from the Major Leagues.
Montes continues to develop into one of the organization’s premier power hitters, while Arroyo has reinforced his reputation as one of Seattle’s most polished young offensive infielders, combining plate discipline, bat-to-ball skills, and emerging power.
Their promotions represent another success for Seattle’s player development department.
Ironically, they may also increase the organization’s flexibility ahead of the trade deadline.
With the Mariners still within striking distance in the American League West, it would not be surprising to see some of the club’s prospect depth become part of trade discussions if the front office identifies an opportunity to acquire an established impact bat.
Seattle has followed this blueprint before.
Last season, Jerry Dipoto used prospect capital to acquire Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez, moves that helped strengthen the roster during the stretch run and ultimately contributed to the club’s division title and appearance in the American League Championship Series.
The question now is how much of the future Seattle is willing to leverage in pursuit of another postseason run.
A Draft That Reflects Organizational Needs
Seattle’s approach to the 2026 MLB Draft offered another glimpse into the organization’s long-term vision.
With the 24th overall selection, the Mariners chose college third baseman Ace Reese, one of the draft’s most accomplished hitters and a player whose profile addresses a position that has lacked long-term stability throughout much of the organization’s recent history.
Seattle followed that selection with outfielder Jake Brown, right-handed pitcher Nathan Taylor, and another collegiate third baseman, Trevor Lucas, reinforcing key areas of organizational depth with players who could move relatively quickly through the minor league system.
More than simply selecting the best available talent, the Mariners appeared to draft with purpose, addressing future organizational needs while continuing to build a sustainable pipeline of talent.
That philosophy has already produced homegrown players such as Julio Rodríguez, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Cole Young, and now Colt Emerson.
Seattle hopes the next wave will follow a similar path.
The Decisions That Could Shape the Season
As the trade deadline approaches, attention naturally shifts back to Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander.
Seattle still appears to be one impact right-handed bat away from fielding a much more balanced lineup, and few organizations possess the prospect depth necessary to pursue significant upgrades without completely sacrificing the future.
At the same time, Emerson Hancock’s emergence and Bryce Miller’s return provide the Mariners with an enviable amount of starting pitching depth.
That surplus could become one of Seattle’s most valuable trade assets should the front office decide to aggressively pursue offensive help before the deadline.
The coming weeks may ultimately define not only the remainder of the 2026 season, but also the organization’s trajectory over the next several years.
Building Tomorrow While Trying to Win Today
The Mariners enter the All-Star break in an uncomfortable position, but far from a hopeless one.
They still possess one of the American League’s most talented starting rotations, one of baseball’s premier farm systems, and a front office that has consistently demonstrated a willingness to act aggressively when opportunities arise.
If the first half proved anything, it is that Seattle’s organizational identity remains firmly intact.
The Mariners continue to develop talent at a pace matched by only a handful of organizations across Major League Baseball.
Now comes the difficult part.
Finding the balance between protecting one of baseball’s elite farm systems and using that prospect capital to strengthen a major league roster that still has a legitimate opportunity to compete for another American League West title.
Because if the Mariners have mastered building for the future, the challenge now is turning that future into a winning present.
Miguel Riera is an IBWAA member and covers baseball for Lineup al Dia. He can be found on a number of platforms, including YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok.
Extra Innings
Today should be the 35th birthday of Tyler Skaggs. It seems like much longer than seven years ago, on July 1, 2019, that Skaggs was found unresponsive and pronounced deceased due to drugs. His death opened up an unsightly world behind the scenes of MLB trainers, translators and other positions within the team who seem to be willing to do whatever needed in order to be “in” with MLB players. A legal case against the Los Angeles Angels’ trainer at the time concluded with a conviction in 2022, and last December, the Skaggs family settled a civil lawsuit with the Angels organization over Tyler’s death. While his passing led to some much-needed reform and regulations within MLB, it’s good today to remember the promising career he was just beginning. In the game following his passing, his Angels teams, playing through heavy hearts, pitched a combined no-hitter.
Know Your Editors
Here’s the Pitch is published daily except Sundays and holidays. Benjamin Chase [biggentleben@hotmail.com] handles the Monday issue with Dan Freedman [dfreedman@lionsgate.com] editing Tuesday and Jeff Kallman [easyace1955@outlook.com] at the helm Wednesday and Thursday. Original editor Dan Schlossberg [ballauthor@gmail.com], does the weekend editions on Friday and Saturday. Former editor Elizabeth Muratore [nymfan97@gmail.com] is now co-director [with Benjamin Chase and Jonathan Becker] of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America, which publishes this newsletter and the annual ACTA book of the same name. Readers are encouraged to contribute comments, articles, and letters to the editor. HtP reserves the right to edit for brevity, clarity, and good taste.