Scoring The Oakland A's Offseason
Today, we look at the moves the A's have made this offseason and the position they are in heading into 2023.
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Pregame Pepper - Happy Holid-A’s
Leading Off
The A’s Sign Free Agents? Don’t Get Too Excited
By Rich Campbell
The pre-Christmas MLB shopping season has been intense, with lucrative and long-term deals being signed.
High-end average annual value contracts (AAV) included the New York Mets signing Justin Verlander (AAV $43.3M) the New York Yankees retaining Aaron Judge (AAV $40M) and the Texas Rangers adding Jacob DeGrom (AAV $37M).
For contract length, noteworthy was Carlos Correa with the San Francisco Giants (13 years), Trea Turner to the Philadelphia Phillies (11 years), and Xander Bogaerts joining the San Diego Padres (11 years).
The highest overall deals were inked by Judge ($360M), Correa ($350M), and Turner ($300M), indicating the top teams are behaving as if they are flush with cash.
While the Yankees, Phillies, Mets, Padres, and others are behaving as if their coffers are filled, the Oakland A’s (and several other teams) are not.
Before considering the A’s free agent signings, a look at the A’s payroll (per Sportrac) from 2022 is helpful for context. Last year Oakland’s spending ranked 29 out of 30 teams ($48.4M) with only the Baltimore Orioles ($44.9) being more miserly. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cleveland Guardians were the teams immediately above the A’s in 2022 payroll, spending $66.3M and $66.5M, respectively.
The good news is that two of those four teams played over .500 ball: the Orioles went 83-79 and the Guardians recorded a 92-70 mark and won the AL Central. So, not spending certainly does not doom a team to a terrible season. Of course, the other half of that story is that the A’s and Pirates each lost 100 games.
Another four teams spent under $100 million (Tampa Bay Rays, Kansas City Royals, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Miami Marlins) with only the Rays having a winning record. In summary, the under $100 million payroll teams had three teams over .500 and five below that mark.
Up at the top of 2022 MLB payrolls, seven teams topped $200 million in payroll: Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox, and Chicago White Sox. The top three of those seven played over .600 (Dodgers, Mets, Yankees), the Phillies and Padres played over .500, the White Sox played exactly .500 ball and only the Red Sox played losing baseball. In summary, the over $200 million payroll teams had just one of the seven finish below .500.
Before looking at the A’s three free agent signings, let’s look at the most expensive players on the roster at the close of 2022. The only players making more than $1 million were: Chad Pinder ($2.7M), Tony Kemp ($2.2M), and Ramon Laureano (2.0M). Pinder is a free agent and Kemp and Laureano seem likely to be dealt, if not now, then at the trade deadline. After all, Sean Murphy was dealt this month just as he became arbitration eligible, with an estimated raise to $3.5 million, per mlbtraderumors.com.
The pattern seems evident, right? Jettison players making anything over a million dollars, right?
Au contraire! The A’s have inked three free agents to deals topping out over at $7 million per year. Sure, in MLB budgeting that is still bargain-basement shopping, but it runs contrary to the tanking plan that seems well underway. The players, who surely will not go down as memorable members of the green and gold are utility infielders Aledmys Diaz (2 years, $14.5M), Jace Peterson (2 years, 9.5M), and reliever Trevor May (1 year, $7M). All three players seem like the type that the front office will seek to flip for prospects at some point, as they are already in their early thirties and signed to short-term deals, potentially attractive to aspiring playoff teams at the trade deadline.
In addition, the Murphy trade (along with a stockpile of prospects) added 36-year-old backup catcher Manuel Pina to the roster with a salary of $4.5M in 2023, followed by a club option for $4M in 2024. Ironically, Pina’s 2023 salary is more than what Murphy would have earned this year, per mlbtraderumors.com. You have to figure that Pina too is likely to be flipped at some point this year.
The bottom line is that despite spending a few dollars in free agency, this team is likely to lose over 100 games again this coming season. In fact, vegasinsider.com has the A’s win total set at 58.5. Would you want to take the over on that? It might give you a reason to pay attention, besides the dream that some of the A’s prospects will blossom this year into a core that can eventually get back to .500 or even make the playoffs.
Rich Campbell is a Marketing Professor at Sonoma State University by day and A’s fan by night. He has previously been a sports business contributor at Forbes.com and his academic writing has appeared in Sport Marketing Quarterly. You can find him on Twitter at @RichCampbellPhD.