Free Agent Roulette: Soto vs Ohtani
PLUS: HALL OF FAME SHOULD OPEN GALLERY FOR MORE MANAGERS
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Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
The Houston Astros suddenly can’t win at Minute Maid Park, where they went 40-45 including the first two ALCS games against Texas . . .
Corey Seager is the only shortstop to homer in both the NLCS and ALCS . . .
Mickey Mantle’s childhood home in Commerce, Okla. has been divided into 47,000 shares to be put up for sale at $7 each by a memorabilia company called Rally, according to ESPN . . .
NLCS ticket prices plunged 90 per cent after the Phillies flattened the D’backs, 10-0, in Game 2 at Philadelphia . . .
Who could have guessed Brandon Pfaadt would become a postseason hero? How many people even heard of him before?
Leading Off
Soto vs Ohtani: 2024
By Paul Semendinger, Ed.D.
There are two premier players that are, or might be available for the 2024 season: Juan Soto (possibly by trade) and Shohei Ohtani (as a free agent). Among fans, there is a growing debate over which of the two players their favorite team should try to acquire.
I figured I would break down the stats, and some arguments and make the determination myself.
To begin, while he is known for being a pitcher and designated hitter, it is clear that for 2024, at least, Shohei Ohtani will not be pitching. I am of the belief that while he will try to pitch again, any team that acquires Shohei Ohtani must know that, due to his injury history, there is no guarantee that Ohtani will pitch again nor, even if he can, there is no guarantee that he will be an effective or top-of-the-rotation starter again.
The team signing Ohtani has to sign him knowing that there is a real possibility that they will only be signing him as an offensive threat — not as a pitcher as well. If I were acquiring him, I would consider anything he can do as a pitcher, again, probably not until 2025, as a bonus. For this article, I will compare these two players only as hitters and fielders.
Once one starts to compare the two players as position players, one thing quickly becomes very clear. While Juan Soto is not a great defensive outfielder (through the entirety of his career, his dWAR has been negative in every season he has played) he is more of an outfielder than Shohei Ohtani.
While it might be said that Ohtani has never made an error as an outfielder in the major leagues, neither has he ever made an assist — or even a putout. In his career with the Angels, Shohei Ohtani has played a grand total of 8.1 innings in the field.
In short, while he has been a two-way player as a pitcher and a hitter, he has not been a two-way player in regard to playing a fielding position other than pitcher. This trend goes back to his days playing in Japan.
The only time Ohtani had any significant playing time in the outfield in his professional career was 2013, when he appeared in 56 games. I do not believe that the team that signs him will even consider playing him in the field.
The hope is that he can return to being an effective pitcher one day. A smart team wouldn't ask a rehabbing pitcher to play outfield. As such, when we consider Shohei Ohtani, it will have to be as a designated hitter.
In sum, a team acquiring Juan Soto would be getting an outfielder, the team that acquires Shohei Ohtani will be getting a designated hitter (but one who might pitch in the future). With this in mind, a comparison of the two players, strictly as hitters in the Major Leagues makes a lot of sense.
To begin, both players began their big-league careers in 2018. That allows for an excellent opportunity for comparison as their tenures as MLB players are identical. Soto has played more games (779) than Ohtani (701) but the numbers are relatively close.
If we look at traditional counting stats, Juan Soto, in part because he's played more games, has an advantage in almost every one except homers. Soto has scored more runs (527-428) and has more hits (768-681), doubles (148-129), and runs batted in (483-437). Shohei Ohtani out paces Soto in triples (29-11) and home runs (171-160).
While Soto has the edge across most counting stats, his edge isn't overly significant, and one must consider that Ohtani was pitching throughout much of his time adding an added component to his work that Soto did not encounter. I will assume that if Shohei Ohtani focuses exclusively on batting, that his numbers in that area will improve. In the end, by counting stats, at least, to my thinking, it is basically a toss-up.
Interestingly, where the divide between the two players becomes more clear is in regard to walks and strikeouts. Soto has struck out far fewer times than Ohtani (577 to 755) and has walked a ton more (640 to 351). The differences in these numbers is significant. So, while Soto has a slight edge in batting average, 284 to .274, his On-Base Percentage of .421 is significantly higher than Ohtani's .366. In fact, Soto is the active leader across Major League Baseball in On-Base Percentage.
Conversely, Shohei Ohtani is the better slugger. His .556 Slugging Percentage is a more impressive number than Soto's .524.
Soto has the edge in OPS (.946 to .922) and OPS+ (157 to 148), though the latter number is very close.
Again, these two hitters have very similar statistics across their careers.
The one area where Soto has a most significant edge is in age. Shohei Ohtani will turn 30 years old during the 2024 season. Soto, on the other hand, will be only 25.
If I were a general manager, while I would love to have both players, if I had to choose one player or the other, I would acquire Juan Soto. He is, if only slightly, the better hitter, he can play the field (if not exceptionally well), and he has age on his side. I believe Juan Soto's next five to ten years will be significantly better than Ohtani's, which might even be true if Ohtani can pitch again. I wouldn't bank on a pitcher with arm issues and two significant surgeries.
What a great debate to have!
Paul Semendinger is an adjunct college professor, a retired school principal, a runner (he'll be running the NYC Marathon in November), and an author. His published books are "Scattering the Ashes," "From Compton to the Bronx (with Roy White)," "The Least Among Them," and "Impossible is an Illusion." Paul's next book 365.2 will be published in March 2024. More on that special book coming soon!
Cleaning Up
Cooperstown Should Open Gates For Managers
By Dan Schlossberg
In 2014, the Hall of Fame Veterans Committee gave unanimous approval to all three managers listed on their ballot: Bobby Cox, Joe Torre, and Tony La Russa.
Nine years later, its latest offshoot — the post-1980 Baseball Era Committee — needs to do the same.
All four managers listed in the group’s eight-man ballot are Cooperstown-worthy, with five world championships among them.
Davey Johnson won with the ‘86 Mets, Jim Leyland with the ‘97 Marlins, Cito Gaston with the ‘92 and ‘93 Blue Jays, and Lou Piniella with the 1990 Reds. All also collected a pile of pennants and division titles, with Piniella’s 2001 Mariners even winning an AL-record 116 games.
The Hall of Fame gallery has only 22 plaques for managers — even though there are 30 teams in the majors now — and should find room for more.
A slugging second baseman as a player, Johnson was a computer whiz who managed 2500 games in 17 seasons starting in 1984. He led the Mets to six straight winning seasons, including the world championship decided in part by Bill Buckner’s error in Game 6. He also managed the Dodgers, Reds, Orioles, and Nationals.
Gaston had two stints in Toronto, where he once won four division titles in five years. The former outfielder was the first black manager to win a World Series — and was the last man to bring a world championship to Canada.
In 22 seasons, Leyland led the Pirates, Rockies, Tigers, and Marlins in addition to Pittsburgh, where he won three straight division titles from 1990-92. His 1997 Marlins rode a wild-card berth to a surprise world championship in just their fifth season. Leyland finished with 1,769 career wins, 18th on the career list for managers and just behind Piniella (1,835).
Sweet Lou served as manager and general manager of the Yankees during the Steinbrenner years but also piloted the Reds, Mariners, Cubs, and Devil Rays (who have since dropped the Devil from their nickname). He won the 1990 World Series in his first season with Cincinnati and had multiple playoff teams in both Chicago and Seattle.
If they weren’t still in uniform, Dusty Baker (Astros) and Bruce Bochy (Rangers) could be on the ballot too, and should join just-retired Terry Francona when managers are considered again. Maybe Brian Snitker (Braves) and Dave Roberts (Dodgers) too.
Meanwhile, the latest Veterans Committee ballot — that name still sounds more appropriate — also includes former executives Bill White and Hank Peters and former umpires Joe West and Ed Montague. White was the last president of the National League, while Peters served as general manager and front-office figure for 42 years, dating back to the days before the St. Louis Browns went defunct. He even worked under Charlie Finley in Oakland before creating the Cleveland powerhouses of the ‘90s.
West umpired more games than any other arbiter: 5,460. Montague was also a workhorse among men in blue, with 4,000 games to his credit from 1974-2009. West, nicknamed “Country Joe” and “the Singing Cowboy,” retired a year ago, in February 2022.
Nominees need 12 of 16 votes (75 per cent) to win election. The voting will take place during December’s Winter Meetings in Nashville and induction will be held in Cooperstown next July.
Players elected by the baseball writers will be revealed in January. Leading contenders are Todd Helton, Billy Wagner, Gary Sheffield, and Andruw Jones from last year’s ballot and newcomers Adrian Beltre and Joe Mauer, who both could win entry on their first try.
Former AP sportswriter Dan Schlossberg of Fair Lawn, NJ is the author of more than 40 baseball books, including the forthcoming Home Run King: the Remarkable Record of Hank Aaron, due from Sports Publishing in April. Dan’s e.mail is ballauthor@gmail.com.
Timeless Trivia
Roger Maris, the American League’s single-season home run king before Aaron Judge, hit more homers (31) in 1961 than he hit at home (30) and did the same in his second-best season of 1960 (13 at home, 26 away) — despite batting left-handed and aiming at the short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium . . .
A two-time MVP, Maris still holds the record for most home runs hit during consecutive pennant-winning seasons (182) . . .
By way of contrast, Hank Greenberg loved the Detroit home cooking, connecting 39 at Briggs Stadium in 1938 and a career-best 19 on the road, while Hack Wilson had 33 of his 56 homers in 1930 at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, his home park . . .
Johnny Mize, the chief beneficiary of the horseshoe-shaped Polo Grounds, never hit more than 22 homers on the road but hit 29 of his 51 circuit clouts in 1947 at home . . .
Without benefit of even one 50-homer season, Hank Aaron had more home runs on the road than Jimmie Foxx, Ralph Kiner, Johnny Mize, Greenberg, and Wilson . . .
Sandy Koufax hit the first of his two major-league home runs against fellow lefty Warren Spahn in Milwaukee, giving Spahn his fifth one-run loss of 1962 as his record dropped to 6-7.
Know Your Editors
HERE’S THE PITCH is published daily except Sundays and holidays. Benjamin Chase [gopherben@gmail.com] handles Monday and Tuesday editions, Elizabeth Muratore [nymfan97@gmail.com] does Wednesday and Thursday, and Dan Schlossberg [ballauthor@gmail.com] edits the weekend editions on Friday and Saturday. Readers are encouraged to contribute comments, articles, and letters to the editor. HTP reserves the right to edit for brevity, clarity, and good taste.