Should Ted Williams Have Been a Lead-off Man? Stats Suggest That Idea
ALSO: FIVE BRAVES COOPERSTOWN SHOULD CONSIDER
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Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
Now that a plethora of players has been non-tendered, the list of free agents has swelled to more than 300 . . .
The Phillies, unhappy at missing the World Series with their high-priced, veteran-laden team, are listening to offers for third baseman Alec Bohm and right-fielder Nick Castellanos . . .
The Phils could also sign a slugging first baseman — Christian Walker or Paul Goldschmidt — and move Bryce Harper back to the outfield . . .
After finishing last in three of the last five seasons, the Boston Red Sox are in hot pursuit of former batting champ Juan Soto, most recently with the Yankees, and star southpaw Max Fried, whose price has become too rich for Atlanta . . .
The return of Mookie Betts to the Dodger infield means Gavin Lux is expendable . . .
All three of Shohei Ohtani’s MVP wins were by unanimous vote — a major-league record unlikely to be duplicated. He and the late Frank Robinson are the only players to win MVP trophies from both leagues.
Leading Off
Ted At the Top
By Paul Semendinger
Last season, there was a period when the Yankees were struggling to find a lead-off hitter.
They tried numerous players there but none found success.
I came up with a solution that seemed very logical. I wanted the Yankees to take their best player at getting on base, Juan Soto, and bat him first. The reasoning makes sense. What is a lead-off man supposed to do? He's supposed to get on base...
The following are the All-Time MLB On-Base Percentage Leaders From Players Whose Careers Began After 1930:
1. Ted Williams .482
2. Barry Bonds .443
3. Ferris Fain .424
4. Juan Soto .4208
5. Mickey Mantle .4205
The 2024 Yankees had Juan Soto, one of the greatest players since 1930 at getting on base. Since they weren't getting runners on base before him (Soto mostly batted second in 2024), I reasoned they should bat him first. It was better, I reasoned, for Soto to come up with no outs rather than with one out.
Alas, the Yankees never followed my advice...
But in looking at my list, I started to wonder if Ted Williams, the greatest player of all time at getting on base, was ever tried as his team's lead-off hitter. I wondered if Ted Williams ever batted first in the lineup.
It turns out that he did.
In his long career, Ted Williams batted in the first spot in the batting order for the Red Sox six times. That's it. Six times.
The following is a list (from Baseball-Reference) of the numbers of times Ted Williams hit at each batting position:
1- 6 times
2- 57 times
3- 1,541 times
4- 459 times
5- 67 times
6- 32 times
7- 24 times
8- 35 times
9- 71 times
The first thing that jumps out at me from that list is, "Ted Williams batted ninth 71 times? Ninth? Ted Williams?!" Why would any manager, in any situation, ever bat Ted Williams last?
(It wasn't as if Ted Williams came to his greatness slowly. Williams batted .327/31/145 in his rookie year. He led the league in runs batted in and total bases. He was a slugger, a great slugger, from the start. In Williams' first game, he batted sixth and hit a double. In his second game, he had a hit and an RBI. In his third game, he drove home another run and hit another double. He was a force at bat from the very first moment he stepped into a big-league batter's box.)
For this exercise, though, I wanted to dig into the weeds and determine what occurred the six times Ted Williams batted lead-off. Being that he had only six plate appearances at that spot, I originally figured it was a way to get him in a game and get him out as quickly as possible. But... why? I hoped the research would answer the question for me.
Here are the six occasions when Ted Williams batted lead-off:
1. July 16, 1941 - Williams came in as a pinch-hitter in the eighth inning of a game in which the Red Sox were trailing the White Sox, 1-0. He hit a run-scoring fly to center field to tie the game at 1-1. Williams did not remain in the game. The Red Sox would go on to win that game, 2-1.
2. September 16, 1955 - Williams came in as a pinch-hitter with the Red Sox losing to the Yankees, 2-0, in the top of the fifth inning. He walked and was removed for a pinch-runner. The Yankees won that day, 5-4.
3. April 17, 1958 - In a game the Red Sox lost to the Yankees, Williams pinch-hit in the eighth inning and grounded out. He did not remain in the game.
4. August 11, 1958 - Williams pinch hit in the seventh inning with the Red Sox losing, 4-2, to the Senators. Williams struck out. He did not remain in the game.
5. May 12, 1960 - Williams pinch-hit in the bottom of the ninth with the bases loaded in a 0-0 game against the Senators. He grounded out into a fielder's choice to first with the runner heading home retired. The next batter singled and the Red Sox won the game, 1-0.
6. August 12, 1960 - In a game the Red Sox would lose, 5-4, to the Orioles, Williams pinch-hit in the top of the ninth inning and flew out to center. He did not remain in the game.
And there it is.
Ted Williams actually never batted lead-off. He appeared in the lead-off spot six times in his career, all because he pinch-hit for the lead-off batter. I suspect the same is true if one were to determine all the times Williams "batted ninth." I suspect he never batted ninth in a starting lineup at all.
One final note: in Ted Williams' time, batting average ruled as the measure for hitters more than On Base Percentage. Williams also played in a time when most of the other all-time Major League all-time leaders in OBP had played recently as demonstrated in the following chart:
(Juan Soto currently ranks #19 all-time in OBP. While he was special, his “specialness” wasn't as apparent then as it is today.)
1. Ted Williams .482
2. Babe Ruth .474
3. John McGraw .466 (not a contemporary or recent player to Williams)
4. Billy Hamilton .455 (not a contemporary or recent player to Williams)
5. Lou Gehrig .447
6. Barry Bonds .444 (not a contemporary - a future player to Williams)
7. Rogers Hornsby .434
8. Ty Cobb .433
9. Jimmy Foxx .428
10. Tris Speaker .428
Dr. Paul Semendinger is the Vice Chairman of the Elysian Fields Chapter of SABR. He has written a host of books on baseball and other topics. He is eagerly awaiting the spring when he'll continue pitching for a local baseball team as he turns 57 years old.
Cleaning Up
Five Braves Whom Cooperstown Should Enshrine
By Dan Schlossberg
Okay, I’ll admit it: I’m a Braves fan — and have been ever since the Milwaukee Braves upset the favored Yankees in the 1957 World Series.
Those NL champs had numerous future Hall of Famers, including Hank Aaron, Eddie Mathews, Red Schoendienst, and Warren Spahn. But Lew Burdette, a fidgety right-handed pitcher, stole the show — and that year’s World Series MVP award — with a 3-0 record that featured three complete games, two of them shutouts.
He’s one of five Braves I think Hall of Fame electors have overlooked.
In alphabetical order, they are Burdette, Andruw Jones, pitching coach Leo Mazzone, Dale Murphy, and owner Ted Turner.
Jones is on the baseball writers’ ballot for the eighth time, so he has three years left to reach the required 75 per cent of the vote needed for election. A gifted center-fielder, he won 10 consecutive Gold Gloves — a feat done previously by incumbent Hall of Famers Roberto Clemente, Willie Mays, and Ken Griffey, Jr. plus Class of 2025 candidate Ichiro Suzuki.
That lone should be enough to qualify Jones, whose WAR (wins against replacement) ranked first on the team five times more often than any of his teammates during Atlanta’s record 14-year title streak. Yes, that’s five more than Chipper Jones, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, David Justice, Ron Gant et. al.
Andruw also hit 434 home runs, including 51 in a season that should have included an MVP trophy (he finished second to Albert Pujols).
A big-league star at age 19, when he became the youngest man to homer in a World Series, Jones was dominant for more than a decade — the usual measuring stick for Cooperstown. His balloon deflated toward the end, lowering his final average to .256 but others in the Hall were in the same statistical ballpark.
Jones drew more than 61 per cent of the vote last year and keeps rising in the returns.
Burdette, on the other hand, needs the Eras Committee to reach the golden gallery of Cooperstown. A three-time All-Star who won an ERA title and a World Series ring, Slippery Lew had the misfortune of playing Robin to Warren Spahn’s Batman.
He won 203 games — as many as Hall of Famer Roy Halladay — and one of those was a no-hitter. Burdette was also an amazing hitter who hit three home runs — three! — against Sandy Koufax. The Dodger lefty even called him his toughest opposing hitter.
Murphy’s fate is also in the hands of the erstwhile Veterans Committee. He hit 398 home runs, almost all of them for Atlanta, and won five Gold Gloves for his stellar play in center field after starting out as a catcher. He also had the most total bases in the majors during the decade of the ‘80s, finishing second in both home runs and RBIs, while collecting back-to-back MVP awards in 1982-83.
Manager Bobby Cox was the man who moved him twice, initially to first base and then to the outfield. Despite bad knees, Murphy could run — and even recorded a rare 30/30 season.
Speaking of Cox, he was one of three men who wore a Braves jersey throughout the long title streak. The other two were John Smoltz, like Cox already enshrined, and Mazzone, the Cox choice to succeed Johnny Sain as pitching coach.
It was Mazzone who convinced Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddux that they would perform better if they threw twice between starts. Although the pitchers balked, they tried it and liked it. Obviously, their mentor was right.
The affable Mazzone, known for resurrecting pitchers rejected by others, should be the first coach enshrined in Cooperstown.
Hard to believe, but the gallery of nearly 350 baseball greats does not have a single coach, scout, or player agent. Certainly all three noble professions have a myriad of candidates.
Although a handful of owners have been added over the years, too many deserving ones remain on the outside looking in — men like Charlie Finley, George Steinbrenner, Gene Autry, and even the mercurial, often enigmatic Ted Turner.
He saved the Braves for Atlanta and saved Jane Fonda for himself but Turner’s prime contribution was creation of the first SuperStation. WTBS (Turner Broadcasting System) beamed Braves baseball around the country, giving the game visibility in many new markets, and creating Braves fans in places like Valdez, Alaska.
The outspoken CNN creator had a sign on his desk that read, “Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way.” He followed it to the letter, even making himself manager for a day, getting himself suspended for openly coveting Gary Matthews when he still belonged to the Giants, and angering Commissioner Bowie Kuhn for making free agent Andy Messersmith wear “CHANNEL” rather than his name over uniform No. 17.
Known variously as “The Mouth of the South” and as a championship yachtsman in the America’s Cup, Turner won more headlines than his team. When he fired Cox after his first run as Braves manager, Ted said, “If Bobby weren’t the one getting fired today, he’d be the man I’d be hiring.”
Thanks to Turner, Cox spent three years in Toronto, returned to Atlanta as general manager, and built the foundation for the pitching staff that dominated the league for more than a decade. More than anyone else, he convinced Turner to give him a free hand in running baseball operations.
There are some owners in Cooperstown — Walter O’Malley and Bill Veeck come to mind right away — but there needs to be room for Ted Turner too.
Here’s the Pitch weekend editor Dan Schlossberg of Fair Lawn, NJ is the author of 42 baseball books, including Home Run King: the Remarkable Record of Hank Aaron, The New Baseball Bible, The 300 Club, and collaborations with Al Clark, Milo Hamilton, and Ron Blomberg. Dan’s email is ballauthor@gmail.com.
Timeless Trivia: the Juan Soto Saga Continues
“We have to get back to the winning days. We have to get back to the sell-outs, to give the fans what they expect, which is a winning team on the field that can take us to the promised land. The only way that’ll happen is by spending money.”
— David (Big Papi) Ortiz on Red Sox possibly signing Juan Soto
While growing up in the Dominican Republic, Juan Soto was a fan of the Boston Red Sox — and especially Big Papi . . .
The Soto bidding war includes reports that Mets owner Steve Cohen told Scott Boras he would top any other offer by $50 million . . .
If the Mets sign Soto, do they let Pete Alonso walk and move Mark Vientos across the infield from third to first? . . .
A four-time All-Star at age 26, Soto already owns a batting crown and a World Series ring . . .
Soto also has 11 post-season home runs, including one in the 2024 Fall Classic for the Yankees against the Dodgers.
Know Your Editors
HERE’S THE PITCH is published daily except Sundays and holidays. Benjamin Chase [gopherben@gmail.com] handles Monday and Tuesday editions, Elizabeth Muratore [nymfan97@gmail.com] does Wednesday and Thursday, and Dan Schlossberg [ballauthor@gmail.com] edits the weekend editions on Friday and Saturday. Readers are encouraged to contribute comments, articles, and letters to the editor. HTP reserves the right to edit for brevity, clarity, and good taste.