Cooperstown Welcomes Fred McGriff and Scott Rolen As Class of 2023 Hall of Fame Inductees
PLUS: HERE ARE THE BEST FREE AGENT PITCHERS THIS FALL
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Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
Arizona’s All-Star outfielder Corbin Carroll, the NL Rookie of the Year favorite, was the first freshman with 15 homers and 25 stolen bases before the All-Star break . . .
Carroll hit .540 as a high-school senior in the Seattle area, where he grew up as a diehard fan of the Mariners . . .
Kansas City shortstop Bobby Witt, Jr. has become the first major-leaguer ever have at least 20 HR and 30 SB in both of his first two seasons . . .
After starting the season with a 3.27 ERA in his first 13 starts, veteran southpaw Drew Smyly of the Cubs has stopped smiling, posting a 7.24 ERA over his first nine games (seven starts) since June 14 . . .
Mets rookie catcher Francisco Alvarez has matched his age (21) in home runs . . .
Prime prospect Ronnie Mauricio hasn’t been promoted by the Mets because he’s defensively challenged at second, third, and shortstop . . .
New Mets prospect Luisangel Acuña, a speedy shortstop, is part of an extended family that not features his superstar brother but includes his father, Ronald Acuña, Sr. (a longtime Mets farmhand who also played for Binghamton) as well as cousins Alcides Escobar, Kelvim Escobar and Maikel García . . .
Cincinnati wunderkind Elly de la Cruz was the first man in more than 50 years to steal second, third, and home in the same plate appearance (Jack Fraley was batting) . . .
After signing a six-year, $162 million free-agent pact to pitch for the Yankees, lefty Carlos Rodon missed three months with a left forearm strain, pitched poorly when reinstated, and joined the Injured List with a hamstring injury.
Leading Off
Fred McGriff and Scott Rolen Take Their Places in Cooperstown
By Thomas Holmes
It was another sunny day in the quiet, sleepy town of Cooperstown, NY.
Though it was daytime, stars of baseball past lit up the town. It was the 74th induction ceremony for the mighty National Baseball Hall of Fame.
This museum enshrines the most elite players who played America’s National Pastime. Only one per cent of players in the game make it to that prestigious level.
Their bronze plaques will be on the wall for future generations to read and remember.
Countless conversations begin with the phrase, “I remember when…” in those halls. This warm summer day belonged to the Class of 2023: Fred McGriff and Scott Rolen.
Tampa-native Fred McGriff was selected by the Contemporary Baseball Players Era Committee.
The first baseman spent 19 years in professional baseball. His career began in Toronto with the Blue Jays. Over the years, McGriff played for the Dodgers, Padres, Devil Rays, Cubs, and Braves, where he won his only World Series championship. To many in attendance, that fan-favorite induction was long overdue.
Scott Rolen was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America in his sixth year on the ballot. The 1997 National League Rookie of the Year played third base for the Phillies, Blue Jays, Reds, and Cardinals.
He was a major force for the Cardinals 2006 World Series Champion by batting .421. In 17 seasons, Rolen reached into the Top 10 for WAR at his position and was compared to defensive greats Brooks Robinson and Mike Schmidt.
Baseball is a game of numbers. There is a statistic for everything. But what statistic qualifies a player for this grand gesture? Is it more than one statistic? What number must a player reach to be awarded baseball’s greatest honor?
There used to be benchmark numbers that could pave the way for players. At one time reaching 500 home runs guaranteed a player a trip to Cooperstown. Both Sammy Sosa and Alex Rodriguez surpassed 600 career home runs but do not have plaques hanging in the sacred hall. A career batting average of .300 was another benchmark. Should a player meet each of these standards to be inducted? Does McGriff reach, meet, or surpass these milestones?
To compare the two newest members of the Hall of Fame, I selected 13 categories to see where McGriff and Rolens place among their peers. The categories are WAR, batting average, hits, doubles, triples, home runs, runs batted in, all-star appearances, championships, Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, Rookie of the Year awards, and MVPs. Those statistics were chosen for simplicity to avoid any unnecessary math.
McGriff has a WAR of 53.7, below the first base average of 60.7.
To some analysts, WAR is an end-all statistic. Others preach it is meaningless. In addition, McGriff failed to reach the batting average of .308 by batting .284. A batting average of .284 is respectable but is below the .300 benchmark.
On the other hand, McGriff surpasses the average hits of 2204 with 2490 and doubles of 396 with 441.
Speed was not one of McGriff’s specialties. He legged out 24 while the average first baseman had 91. The Crime Dog was seven homers (493) shy of the 500-homer benchmark. The strike-shortened season in 1994 was the culprit for that.
However, Fred still exceeded the average home run numbers of 309. McGriff was a run-producing machine during his prime and his 1550 RBIs prove it. He collected 200 more RBIs than the standard set by his peers. McGriff met standards for four of seven categories.
Rolen has a WAR of 70.1. That places him above the average among his peers.
Third basemen have a combined WAR of 60.1. Like McGriff, Rolen had a career batting average below the average Hall of Fame third baseman with .281 versus .302. Once again, .281 is a respectable batting average but is it hall of fame worthy?
The average player at the hot corner hit 384 doubles, which Rolen easily topped with 517, fourth among the other third basemen.
Triples were a rarity for Rolen. He hit 43 of them, half the mean. In the run production department, Rolen exceeded standards with home runs and RBIs. His 316 homers are over the average of 203. Scott’s bat produced 1287 RBIs during his playing years, topping his colleagues by nearly 200. So Rolen met the standards for four of seven categories.
As for awards (All-Star appearances, championships, Gold Gloves, Silver Slugger, Rookie of the Year, MVP) McGriff and Rolen were mediocre.
McGriff had five All-Star selections and Rolen had seven. Both players matched the average of their position. Each player won a championship meeting their averages.
Differences appear with Gold Gloves and Silver Slugger Awards. Rolen’s superior glove work won him eight Gold Glove Awards, while McGriff did not win any.
Conversely, McGriff’s superb skills with the bat produced three Silver Slugger Awards versus Rolen’s one. Nonetheless, Rolen has the unique distinction of being the only Hall of Fame third basemen to win a Rookie of the Year award.
Neither player won an MVP.
There is no clear-cut standard that determines who is a Hall of Famer or not.
Moving forward, how should the appointing committee compare upcoming candidates? To current Hall of Famers or to the players they played against?
Either way, statistics ought to be the only factor. Likeability and off-field actions should be irrelevant, although the written standards for election specify character as one of the qualifications.
Email the author as follows: thomasholmes163988@gmail.com
Cleaning Up
Where to Find Pitching in Next Free Agent Class
By Dan Schlossberg
Make no mistake: everybody is always looking for pitching.
Injuries, age, and inexplicable obstacles always obscure the most optimistic outlooks — meaning no one can ever have too much pitching.
That being said, more than a dozen decent-or-better veterans top the list of likely free agents.
In alphabetical order, they are Aroldis Chapman, Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Sonny Gray, Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, Craig Kimbrel, Michael Lorenzen, Lance Lynn, Jordan Montgomery, Charlie Morton, Aaron Nola, Shohei Ohtani, Eduardo Rodriguez, Blake Snell, Marcus Stroman, and Julio Urias.
All but Chapman, Hader, Hicks, and Kimbrel are starters. And Morton, who turns 40 this fall, may find his age a barrier in future contract negotiations.
With their contracts expiring, most of the pitchers on this list have already been traded, probably to serve as two-month rentals who could put contenders over the top.
Stroman, Gray, Hader, Kimbrel, Lorenzen, Ohtani, and Stroman were 2023 All-Stars while Rodriguez, Snell, and Urias certainly could have joined them.
Once free-agent season starts in November, nothing will happen until Ohtani’s status is settled. The Los Angeles Angels elected to keep him — and risk losing him for nothing but a future draft pick — but will have the advantage of incumbency if they want to bid for him.
The cost could be $500 million spread over 10 years — a whopping $50 million per season — but the winning bidder will be getting both a top right-handed pitcher and potent left-handed hitter. Ohtani is both and could have hardware to prove it if he wins both MVP and Cy Young honors in the American League this fall.
Clubs gearing up to woo the Japanese star, in addition to the Angels, are the Dodgers, Padres, Giants, and Mariners — all serious bidders for a player who prefers the West Coast. San Francisco failed to land Aaron Judge, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, or any of the big-ticket stars in the window last winter but is determined not to be out-bid again.
Then there’s Steve Cohen, who mortgaged his team’s future by trading veterans for prospects — even though most if not all are at least two years away.
Ohtani wants to win now and is anxious to jump ship from the Angels, who have not had a single winning season during his six-year tenure in the U.S. majors.
If he follows the money, both the Yankees and Mets (and maybe even the Red Sox) might make ridiculous offers. If he follows his heart, he’ll still be an uber-rich young man at age 30 and living in a place he prefers.
Here are a few early guesses as to where some of the free-agent pitchers might land:
Chapman (Giants), Flaherty and Hader (Braves), Giolito (Angels), Hicks (Phillies), Lorenzen (White Sox), Morton (retirement), Montgomery and Nola (Padres), Rodriguez (Red Sox), Snell (Twins), Kimbrel and Stroman (Yankees), Urias (Angels), and Ohtani (Dodgers).
Former AP sportswriter Dan Schlossberg of Fair Lawn, NJ has been covering baseball since 1969. His byline is published by forbes.com, Sports Collectors Digest, USA TODAY Sports Weekly, Memories & Dreams, and other outlets. He answers emails sent to ballauthor@gmail.com.
Timeless Trivia
“I’ve seen some great players but none that can run like the wind, throw 100 miles an hour, and hit as well as anybody in the game. He’s the most incredible athlete I’ve ever seen in baseball.”
— Dusty Baker, manager of the World Champion Houston Astros, on Shohei Ohtani
The same Michael Lorenzen who no-hit the Nationals this week used to be a pinch-hitter and part-time center-fielder, as well as a relief pitcher, for the Cincinnati Reds …
The Nationals, despite all their ineptitude, had never been no-hit in their history, dating back to their 2005 arrival in D.C., ending their run as the Montreal Expos expansion team . . .
Is this 1951 revisited? Since the All-Star Game, the way-out-in-front Atlanta Braves went 12-12 entering their weekend series against the floundering New York Mets at CitiField in Flushing . . .
STAT OF THE WEEK:
Best slugging-plus (SLG above league average) since 1920:
120 // Braves, 2023
119 // Yankees, 1927
115 // Red Sox, 1977
115 // Red Sox, 2003
(shortened 2020 excluded)
Know Your Editors
HERE’S THE PITCH is published daily except Sundays and holidays. Benjamin Chase [gopherben@gmail.com] handles Monday and Tuesday editions, Elizabeth Muratore [nymfan97@gmail.com] does Wednesday and Thursday, and Dan Schlossberg [ballauthor@gmail.com] edits the weekend editions on Friday and Saturday. Readers are encouraged to contribute comments, articles, and letters to the editor. HTP reserves the right to edit for brevity, clarity, and good taste.