Players Should Grab Contracts While They Can
ALSO: A WRITER REVEALS A HALF-CENTURY OF PERSONAL BASEBALL MEMORIES
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Pregame Pepper
Did you know ...
Six men pinch-hit for Hank Aaron: Lee Maye, Mike Lum, Marty Perez, Johnny Blanchard, Johnny Briggs, and Mike Hegan.
In Cy Young’s first bid for a berth in Cooperstown, he got 49 per cent of the vote from the writers and 41 per cent from the Veterans Committee.
Wally Pipp, whose “headache” allowed Lou Gehrig to break into the lineup of the New York Yankees, was watching from the stands when Gehrig’s streak ended in Detroit on May 2, 1939. Attendance that day was only 11,379.
Leading Off
With Rough Winter Ahead, Players Should Take The Money And Run
By Dan Freedman
If you follow baseball at all – and if you are reading this newsletter, it’s a good bet that you do – you have seen the start of the cold-stove season bloodletting. Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs and Ben Lindbergh of The Ringer have already written about it, as have countless other baseball scribes.
When you look at the sheer number of options that were not picked up (only 4 of 28 of >$5M, and only 2 of 12 of <$5M) and the limited number of qualifying offers proffered (only 6, the lowest amount ever), you get that feeling in your belly. And that is before we learn how many arbitration-eligible players will simply be non-tendered, with Kris Bryant being potentially the biggest fish in what may become a great lake of free agents-who-didn’t-expect-to-be.
Hell, not only did the Indians decline to pick up Brad Hand’s $10M option, they put him on waivers in the hope that someone else would sign him, allowing them to avoid their $1M buy-out – and no one claimed him. Things are not looking good for players this off-season.
But, as I wrote during the Covid-related CBA squabble last spring, I am keeping an eye out for the 2022 season as well. With that on the horizon, my suggestion to any free agent and/or any arbitration-eligible player, is the following: sign the first contract they put in front of you. Bring a pen to any meeting you have with the front office; check to make sure they spelled your name correctly; and then find the dotted line toot sweet. Here is why:
As Patrick Ewing once famously said about professional athletes: “[We] make a lot of money, but we spend a lot too.” But the truth is that the making side of that ledger has become and will continue to be increasingly difficult. As we all know, players only earned 37 per cent of their annual contract amount for the 2020 season. We have no idea what 2021 will look like, but there is definitely reason to believe that MLB may again play less than 162 games, and most likely in less-than-packed ballparks. So that means that the owners will be looking to reduce salaries yet again. It is hard to calculate what that will mean, but it could result in having players’ salaries reduced by up to 50 per cent for 2021.
Which brings us to the 2022 season –- if it happens. Long before the world had ever heard the phrase “novel coronavirus,” there was talk of a potential lockout after the current CBA expires in December 2021. The players and owners have not been on the best of terms for quite some time, and after Michael Weiner passed away and Rob Manfred was elevated from chief labor negotiator to commissioner, things have only gotten worse. Throw in a global pandemic, a massive recession, a shortened season with no fans (save for limited capacities during the NLCS and the World Series), and the rancorous negotiations just to get us this far, and we are primed for players to find the gates locked when they arrive at Spring Training a year from February.
This is all conjecture, and there is no way to know if there will be a lockout or if there is, how long it will last. But, operating on the reasonable assumption that labor strife is in the offing, you certainly expect that players who earned 37 cents on the dollar in 2020 will most likely take some form of haircut in 2021 and may earn even less in 2022.
That may be due to a shortened season (after a prolonged work stoppage) or owners demanding more concessions after two seasons of reduced operating revenues. It could be because television revenues are down, or that the price of consolidating the minor leagues under the MLB umbrella was more costly than expected. However you slice it, the 2022 season could be the third year in a row for reduced player salaries.
And that only accounts for the players who have guaranteed contracts. If you think the current hot stove is going to be chilly, wait ‘til you see the 2021-22 version. In November of next year, teams won’t have any idea what the 2022 season will look like, so they will have a devil of a time setting a budget. Fewer qualifying offers will be extended, fewer options will be picked-up, fewer free agents will be signed. And once (if ever) that all gets cleared up, it stands to be another buyer’s market, with players taking dimes on the dollar to play professional baseball.
Let’s say you are Kiké Hernández. You were supposed to make $5.9M in this, your walk year, but due to the pandemic, you took home less than $2.2M. The Dodgers, for obvious reasons, did not extend Kiké a qualifying offer, and he is now a free agent. In a pre-Covid world, a player of his skills may have expected something like $5-$10M/year on a multi-year deal. But here is a brief list of players on the market in the same (relative) category as the Banana Man: Tommy La Stella, Kolten Wong, Brad Miller, Jurickson Profar, César Hernández, Jonathan Villar, Jonathan Schoop, Brock Holt, Ha-Seong Kim, and Dee Strange-Gordon. That is a lot of options to choose from – and this list specifically excludes DJ LeMahieu, Didi Gregorius, Justin Turner, and Marcus Semien, all of whom stand to get contracts regardless of whom else is available.
So back to Kiké. He made $3.7M less than expected in 2020. His career earnings are $8.6M. Let’s say the Royals offer him a 2/$8M deal. Under normal circumstances, he would reject the offer and wait it out. He might look for a higher AAV or just a better one-year deal. But the problem is, he has no idea what 2021 or 2022 will look like. So rather than taking a “pillow contract” (which, truthfully, would be pretty lumpy for someone of Hernández’s stature), he needs to get multiple years, even if the AAV is low. Again, under normal circumstances, a player of Kike’s unique IF/OF skills, his ability to crush left-handed pitching, his post-season experience, including a two huge home runs in the most recent NLCS, might be able to do better. But he lost 63 per cent of his salary last season, and if he holds out for more this year, teams will easily and gladly move on to one of the other names listed above, or someone from their farm system (see, Witt, Bobby, Jr.) whom they can play on a split contract and save millions. And all of that is before we get to 2022.
Come next off-season, there will be even more available players –- some of the names we already know who didn’t get signed or took one-year deals; free agents; non-tenders; prospects rising through the ranks. But having a multi-year, locking in the guarantee of a few million bucks –- which may (again) be prorated in 2021 and/or 2022 if either season is truncated -– is considerably better than hocking your wares (again) in another crowded market.
Current free agents may think a better deal is out there –- that Steve Cohen will become their personal benefactor –- and will play the odds. But the market stands to be slow and choppy, and at some point the money music will stop, and many players –- whose agents led them astray –- will find that there are simply not enough chairs. And that will have a lasting impact on both 2021 and 2022.
So, as I stated above, bring a Mont Blanc, a Bic, or even a Sharpie to your next meeting with the front office, and just sign whatever they put on the table. Two years from now, you –- and your accountant –- will be glad you did!
PLAY BALL!!
Dan Freedman is the Executive Vice President of Business & Legal Affairs at Lionsgate Films. His writing about baseball stems from his unique (?) perspective on the game, his desire for people to love the game as much as he does, and how the game oftentimes relates to life. His musings can be found at www.baseballcraziness.com. You can follow him on Twitter @dffreedman.
Cleaning Up
A Writer’s Half-Century Of Personal Baseball Memories
By Dan Schlossberg
Since 1969, the year I earned Syracuse University degrees in newspaper journalism and political science, I have had many personal memorable moments. Here are a few that stand out:
Interviewing Hank Aaron in the Atlanta clubhouse during the last week of the 1974 season and being interrupted by Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter, a huge Braves fan. The next day, the headline in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution was “Jimmy Carter is Running For WHAT?”
Completing a lengthy interview with Steve Garvey and having him thank me at the end. I said, “Why are you thanking me? I should be thanking you.” He said, “You did your homework. You asked good questions. Most reporters don’t.”
Covering Hall of Fame inductions for six straight years, 2014-19, and interviewing all incoming electees during that span
Making Mike Piazza laugh as he walked down the steps after the Doubleday Field roundtable the day after his Hall of Fame induction, when I said, “Mike, this is the bar mitzvah you never had.”
Finding out in a private clubhouse conversation with Chipper Jones that he shares my view that Lee Harvey Oswald did not assassinate President John F. Kennedy in Dallas on Nov. 22, 1963
Arranging and conducting a private exclusive interview with Cal Ripken Jr. during spring training with the promise I would not ask him about the consecutive games playing streak he was chasing
Getting Greg Maddux to sign an artist’s rendition of his pitching motion on the cover of Legends Sports Memorabilia with the help of Braves PR man Jim Schultz – and watching the pitcher take the time to write an easily-legible autograph despite his reputation for simply scrawling his name
Sitting alone, talking politics, with Bobby Cox on rocking chairs during a break in the baseball winter meetings in San Diego
Playing ping-pong with Brooks Robinson on the QE2 as the ship swayed during a gale off the coast of Cape Hatteras
Playing singles tennis against Ralph Kiner after the baseball winter meetings in Hawaii
Visiting the homes of Ron Blomberg, Milo Hamilton, and Al Clark while working as ghostwriter of their autobiographies
Announcing an inning of an Astros exhibition game with Milo and having a friend in Los Angeles tell me he heard it and enjoyed it
Sitting in the stands talking baseball with Mets announcer Wayne Hagin for six innings at Jupiter’s Roger Dean Stadium when neither of us were working
Looking out the window of the Braves PR trailer in West Palm Beach and seeing Jane Fonda walking her dog
Entering the Atlanta clubhouse after the crazy Francisco Cabrera game in 1992, asking Jane (obviously waiting for Ted Turner) why she was alone, and finding out she didn’t want to be under the pile at home plate
Having Ted, who then owned the Braves, ask me in 1991 when the Braves last won a pennant (the answer was 1958 but he didn’t know that)
Enjoying the Hall of Fame’s first tribute to Jewish baseball (including kosher hot dogs served in a an adjacent tent), arranged by Marty Abramowitz and Marty Appel and attended by Mike Epstein, Richie Scheinblum, Ken Holtzman, Norm Sherry, Bob Tufts, Elliott Maddux, Art Shamsky, and Blomberg
Creating, coordinating, and hosting more than two-dozen baseball theme cruises – including the first one in 1981 – with Ralph Branca, Roger Craig, Carl Erskine, Darrell Evans, Bob Feller, Ernie Harwell, Tom Henke, Monte Irvin, Larry Jansen, Fergie Jenkins, Jay Johnstone, Jim Kaat, Clyde King, Clem Labine, Eddie Mathews, Lindy McDaniel, Gene Oliver, Pepper Paire Davis, Fritz Peterson, Phil Regan, Stan Musial, Red Schoendienst, Enos Slaughter, Jeff Torborg, Johnny VanderMeer, Billy Williams, and others, including Blomberg, Clark, B.Robinson, and Shamsky
Helping Musial learn to fly a kite – yes, just the two of us – on the top deck of the American Queen paddlewheeler out of St. Louis
Watching Musial perform magic tricks with napkins during dinner and then entertain the whole boat with his harmonica rendition of “The Wabash Cannonball”
Listening to Erskine play classical harmonica with the ship’s band without rehearsal
Calming Pepper Paire Davis, real-life inspiration for the Dottie Henson character played by Geena Davis in A League Of Their Own, when she started to cry as the credits rolled at the end of the movie – she said all her friends were gone
Getting a phone call from John Schuerholz while he was on vacation in Italy after he learned I needed a quote for a USA TODAY Sports Weekly Hall of Fame article
Chasing and catching all 10 living 300-game winners for my book, The 300 Club, and being surprised at how nice nine of them were (not you, Steve Carlton)
Getting Ted Williams to pose for a spring training picture when he was managing the second-edition Washington Senators
Getting a hug from Morganna Roberts at the Baseball Winter Meetings, where she had a basket of Hershey’s Kisses at her booth and said to passing men, “How would like a kiss from Morganna?”
Sitting next to longtime hero Warren Spahn as he told stories at the Braves’ fantasy camp
Marveling at the enormous hand size of Fergie Jenkins as he instructed me at the Cubs’ fantasy camp
Watching an irritated and enormous Dave Kingman rise from his chair after writer Mike Schuman – spurred on as a gag – asked his girlfriend to dance
And one from pre-college:
Stepping onto a baseball diamond for the first time as a writer three days after my 17th birthday in 1965 to do a pre-arranged interview on sportsmanship with Milwaukee Braves manager Bobby Bragan.
Those days may be gone but the memories will live forever. Sadly, I have outlived many of the baseball celebrities I have met but I am fortunate to remain friends with many others.
HERE’S THE PITCH Weekend Editor Dan Schlossberg, 72, has covered baseball since 1965. His e.mail is ballauthor@gmail.com.
Timeless Trivia
Lou Gehrig’s last appearance came in a Kansas City exhibition game on June 12, 1939, the same day the Baseball Hall of Fame opened. He checked himself into the Mayo Clinic the next day and received his difficult diagnosis . . .
The first run ever scored by the Mets came in on a balk . . .
Three years to the day after his 2012 perfect game, Felix Hernandez yielded 10 earned runs . . .
It seemed perfectly innocent at the time but the Giants’ 4-1 victory over the Dodgers on Sept. 7, 1916 launched a record 26-game winning streak.
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Know Your Editors
HERE’S THE PITCH is published daily except Sundays and holidays. Brian Harl [bchrom831@gmail.com] handles Monday and Tuesday editions, Elizabeth Muratore [nymfan97@gmail.com] does Wednesday and Thursday, and Dan Schlossberg [ballauthor@gmail.com] edits the weekend editions on Friday and Saturday. Readers are encouraged to contribute comments, articles, and letters to the editor. HTP reserves the right to edit for brevity, clarity, and good taste.
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