MLB Free Agent Predictions, Hot Off The Presses!
One IBWAA editor shares how she thinks the MLB offseason will play out for this year's most coveted free agents.
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Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
. . . The Hot Stove has barely been ignited, but the Braves and Angels already made a notable move, with Atlanta sending slugger Jorge Soler to Anaheim in exchange for starter Griffin Canning. Soler only hit 21 homers last year, which is a bit of a down year for the slugger, but he still represents the imposing threat and thump that the Angels are lacking. Canning, meanwhile, is still arbitration-eligible and pitched to a 5.19 ERA in 2024 while leading the American League in earned runs allowed.
. . . Here are some notable dates in the 2024 MLB offseason:
Nov. 19: The deadline for players to accept a qualifying offer is 4 p.m. ET, and the deadline to add players to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft is 6 p.m. ET.
Nov. 22: Tender deadline. By 8 p.m. ET, teams must tender contracts to unsigned players for 2025, including their arbitration-eligible players. If a player is non-tendered, he becomes a free agent.
Dec. 9-11: Winter Meetings in Dallas, including the MLB Draft Lottery on Dec. 10 and the Rule 5 Draft on Dec. 11.
Dec. 15: End of the 2024 international signing period.
Jan. 10, 2025: Eligible players and their teams exchange arbitration figures.
Jan. 15, 2025: Start of the new international signing period.
Leading Off
My Bold (But Not That Brash) 2024 Free Agency Predictions
By Elizabeth Muratore
It’s the first week of November, and the MLB Hot Stove is officially open for business.
Last year was the offseason of Shohei Ohtani, and his ultimate destination of the Dodgers was not surprising to anyone (except maybe the Blue Jays). Several of the top Scott Boras clients didn’t sign until Spring Training, which was certainly unexpected even by Boras free agency standards, but on the whole I wouldn’t say there was a truly jaw-droppingly shocking signing.
So what will this offseason bring? The current crop of free agents is very pitcher-heavy, and aside from Juan Soto there are few top-tier bats available. I’ll go through some of the top free agents, where I think they’ll sign, and why.
Juan Soto – Yankees
Especially after they just fell short in the World Series, I feel like there’s a lot of pressure on the Yankees, externally and from their own fans, to sign Soto. So much so that I can’t picture a world in which they don’t make every effort to bring him back. And he just had the best season of his already stellar career! I feel similarly about this to how I felt about the Yankees bringing back Judge in 2022 – they’re still the Yankees. I think they get this done.
Pete Alonso – Mets
Alonso did reportedly turn down an extension from the Mets of around seven years and $158 million before his walk year, only to have one of the poorer seasons of his career heading into free agency. And even after hitting an instantly iconic homer to send the Mets to the NLDS, Alonso is more than just his numbers. He’s the LFGM guy, he’s the Polar Bear, he’s ingrained in the Mets’ team culture and identity at a deep level. I’ve been a big Alonso fan since his debut season and I’m obviously biased, but I think (and sincerely hope) he and the Mets will work something out.
Alex Bregman – Cubs
Christopher Morel was the Cubs’ third baseman for a while, but then they traded him to the Rays at the trade deadline. Third base isn’t the strongest position for the Cubs right now, and Bregman just won a Gold Glove with the Astros. Houston loves him, but I feel like there’s a good chance Bregman could be ready for another challenge, and Chicago seems like a sensible fit. The fact that the Astros haven’t extended him yet, which they did with Jose Altuve, suggests to me that Bregman isn’t committed to staying there for the rest of his career.
Anthony Santander – Phillies
One can only go so long playing both Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos in the outfield. After their entire lineup went cold in October this year, I feel that the Phillies will be aggressively pursuing another bat, and the switch-hitting Santander (who just hit a career-high 44 homers at age 29) could provide the thump they need to slug their way deep into October.
Willy Adames – Diamondbacks
The D-backs were an offensive juggernaut in the regular season, but I don’t think they’re a finished product heading into next season considering that they managed to miss the playoffs in 2024 despite leading MLB in runs scored. Adames is also coming off a career year in Milwaukee and would absolutely be an offensive (and defensive) upgrade from Geraldo Perdomo, though Arizona also has prospect Jordan Lawlar waiting in the wings. I could see Arizona splurging for someone this winter, and I think Adames could be a nice target.
Christian Walker – Giants
The Giants have been sort of under the radar the last couple of years, but firing president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and replacing him with franchise icon Buster Posey definitely makes them interesting to watch heading into 2025. They made a few notable signings last offseason, including Matt Chapman and Blake Snell, and I think Posey will want to make at least one big splash. If Walker and Chapman teamed up in S.F., they could form the best corner-infield defense in the Majors.
Teoscar Hernández – Dodgers
He took a one-year deal just to go to the Dodgers, and it paid off handsomely. I could see them running this partnership back to capitalize on how well 2024 went. Plus, the Dodgers still need outfielders for 2025.
Gleyber Torres – Yankees
Torres hasn’t exactly been flexible in his Yankees tenure – his defense at second base is fine, he was below-average defensively at shortstop when he was the starter, and he did not want to move to third when the Yankees acquired Jazz Chisholm Jr. at the deadline. But I feel like he’s built up enough goodwill with the organization – and likely wouldn’t command a huge deal – that they’ll decide he’s the best option they have at second next year and bring him back.
Blake Snell – Cardinals
The Cardinals have been trying to add more swing-and-miss to their pitching staff, and they finished 27th in MLB in strikeouts in 2024. Snell, who fanned 235 batters in his Cy Young season two years ago and K’d 145 in just 20 starts last year, seems like a perfect fit for them.
Corbin Burnes – Red Sox
This one is a bit of a shot in the dark. I don’t see the Orioles ponying up $175 million for Burnes, and despite the Red Sox displaying a curious penny-pinching attitude the past couple of seasons, they tend to be in the running for at least some of the top free agents every year. Burnes was exactly what the O’s needed in 2024, but I’m not convinced that the O’s are exactly what Burnes needs in 2025.
Max Fried – Dodgers
The Dodgers already acquired one SoCal Harvard-Westlake grad in Jack Flaherty, so why not add another? Fried was one of the few Braves on their 2024 roster that was not already signed to a team-friendly extension, which seems to make it pretty clear that both sides are ready to look elsewhere this offseason. Fried has been healthy most years except for 2023 and is as ace-worthy as they come. I feel like the Dodgers are going to pay big bucks for a pitcher to team up with Yamamoto, Glasnow, Ohtani (?!?), and “insert current injured Dodgers pitcher here,” and Fried is the one I think they’ll be eyeing the most.
Tanner Scott – Padres
Scott was outstanding in 2024, but there’s simply not many teams willing to give relievers expensive multiyear deals. If Scott is looking for one after a stellar last couple of seasons, I could see the Padres as one of the few teams willing to take that gamble.
Walker Buehler – Mets
The Mets struck gold with their pitching signings in 2024, and it remains to be seen if they’ll run any of those guys back in ‘25 or eye a new formula while they wait for their farm system arms to develop. Buehler was shaky in 16 regular-season starts coming back from his second Tommy John surgery, but sometimes it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. After pitching brilliantly in the World Series and locking down the save in the decisive Game 5, I think Buehler will get a mid-tier contract as he continues to re-prove his durability. The Mets are looking for talent but likely don’t want to commit years and years to a single starter. This could be a great match.
Elizabeth Muratore is a co-director of the IBWAA and one of the editors of the Here’s the Pitch newsletter. She also works as a senior content producer for MLB. Elizabeth is a lifelong Mets fan who thinks that Keith Hernandez should be in the Hall of Fame. You can follow her on Twitter @elizmuratore.
Cleaning Up
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