Jacob Young Is The Center Of Attention
PLUS: ON THE IDES OF MARCH, THESE GUYS ARE SURPRINGLY STILL UNSIGNED
Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
Saying they could not afford their share of construction costs for a new stadium, the Tampa Bay Rays will return to a refurbished Tropicana Field in 2026 — but maybe only for a year or two, since their lease at the St. Petersburg ballpark expires after the 2027 season (which could fall victim to a lockout anyway) . . .
Another surprise: Lucas Giolito will begin the 2025 season on the 15-day injured list, thanks to a hamstring issue. Giolito, 30, signed a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox in the 2023-24 off-season but has yet to throw a regular-season pitch for them. Last year, the issue was a partial UCL tear in his right elbow. The Sox will open the season with three starting pitchers on the IL: Giolito, Brayan Ballo (shoulder), and Kutter Crawford (knee) . . .
Desperate to add right-handed bats, the Yankees have considered ex-Braves Adam Duvall and Whit Merrifield, both on the bottom of the free-agent barrel.
Leading Off
Jacob Young’s elite defense
By Andrew Sharp
On August 15, 2024, in Philadelphia, after having made a spectacular leaping catch against the fence, Jacob Young took a step on a hard-hit ball right at him. He recovered quickly enough to reach up and grab the liner, only to have it pop out of his glove. He was charged with an error.
If it weren’t for his quick reaction on a difficult play for any outfielder, the ball would have gone over his head. But Young isn’t just any outfielder. When you make the kind of plays he routinely makes, you get in a position to catch balls others wouldn’t. So he dropped one. It happens.
In fact, Young was charged with eight fielding errors, six of them on misplayed balls that were grounded or fell well in front of him, allowing a runner to advance. That’s the most by an outfielder in 2024. Yet, that’s why, as Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report wrote, “Young is Exhibit A in the case to more or less disregard errors when judging a player's value/added” on defense. That’s because Young led all outfielders in Outs Above Average. Those errors likely contributed, however, to his failure to win what would have been his first Gold Glove.
By a slew of the ever-expanding metrics to measure defense, Jacob Young was the best center-fielder in baseball in 2024. The eyeballs of many players and fans confirm that. It’s why on November 3, he was one of three finalists with a chance to become the first Nationals’ outfielder to earn a Gold Glove.
Yet the N.L. Gold Glove in center again went to Brenton Doyle of Colorado, a fine fielder with a stronger arm who finished first in the Society for American Baseball Research’s Defensive Index. Still, it’s unlikely he is better at making great catches than Young.
The Nationals have had excellent fielding fly-ball chasers in center before. Young’s immediate predecessor, Victor Robles, comes to mind. And Michael A. Taylor, another former National might well have joined Young as an N.L. finalist, had he played more in Pittsburgh. Yet neither of them regularly made as many highlight-reel plays as Young.
Young led all outfielders with 15 outs on balls that had a 25-50 percent catch probability. His seven catches made with a 0-25 percent catch probability were tied for the lead. His foot speed and good jumps certainly help: He stole 25 bases in row after his call-up in August 2023 before being caught a month into the 2023 season.
How does Young do it? Aside from taking fly balls of all kinds in all directions at every ball park before games, he watches where the Nats’ catcher set up for a pitch -- and gambles.
“You can look really smart sometimes, especially if you guess right,” Young told the Washington Post’s Spencer Nusbaum. “And it’s just something where I’m trying to get moving…. I’m able to have a quick correction if it is the wrong direction.”
Indeed, it’s Young ability to correct on the fly that makes him an elite defender. As measured by Baseball Savant, he is far ahead of every other MLB outfielder in the speed of his reaction. The 4.6 feet he covers in the first 1.5 seconds, combined with his 97th-percentile sprint speed produce the best “jumps” on fly balls of anybody. The next best outfielder covered 2.4 feet.
SABR’s rankings count for 25 percent toward determining what players earn a Gold Glove. The August 12 rankings, the last before the season’s end, had Young on top, well ahead of Taylor (now with the Pirates), 11.8 to 8.2. Yet the final rankings dropped Young into a tie with Taylor at 8.8, who started just 80 games in center in 2024. Pete Crow-Armstrong, second by SABR’s composite at 10.4, started 109 games in center to Young’s 142. Four of Young’s errors came between August 15 and September 15.
The SABR Defensive Index “aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics,” according to the website, from four sources. Among the four metrics are play-by-play accounts and the game charting provided by Sports Info Solutions (SIS), which is what I did for a dozen seasons myself for the baseball unit of SIS, I can attest that it is to a degree subjective, as are broadcasters’ play-by-play perceptions. So it is hard to understand how SABR’s numbers produced that much of a drop for Young and such a dramatic month-and-a-half jump for Doyle.
Young’s FanGraphs Defensive Ranking (13.4) topped all other outfielders. He tied Doyle in center for the most Defensive Runs Saved with 11.
Baseball Savant credited him with 20 Outs Above Average, one behind second baseman Andres Gimenez of Cleveland for tops among players of all positions. Young’s 18 Runs Prevented was the highest number of any player since 2019. Savant’s own combined metric, Fielding Run Value, had Young and Crow-Armstrong tops among N.L. outfielder at 16, one ahead of ahead of Doyle. But SABR’s 11.2 grade for Doyle was first among outfielders, and could have influenced the coaches and managers whose votes count for 75 percent in determining the winner.
Outfielder defense in general has shown a slight but measurable improvement over the past several seasons, adding to a number of factors that are depressing batting averages for balls in play. Even so, Young stands out, which is why some day, if he hits enough, he should have “Gold Glove centerfielder” attached to his name.
Andrew Sharp is a retired newspaper journalist and a SABR member who blogs about D.C. baseball at washingtonbaseballhistory.com
Cleaning Up
Unsigned Players: Beware the Ides of March
By Dan Schlossberg
If the calendar has reached March 15 and you haven’t signed yet, you’re in trouble — just like Julius Caesar (as opposed to Cesar Geronimo).
Quite a few name players are aboard that sinking ship and unlikely to find new homes unless (a) their asking price comes down and (b) injuries create openings.
That being said, here’s a position-by-position look at the still-available free agents:
Catcher — Yasmani Grandal, James McCann
First base — Anthony Rizzo
Second base — Whit Merrifield
Shortstop — Aledmys Diaz
Third base — Brian Anderson, Matt Duffy
Left field — Adam Duvall
Center field — Alex Verdugo, Aaron Hicks
Right field — David Peralta
Designated Hitter — J.D. Martinez
Starting pitchers — Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, Alex Wood
Relief pitchers — Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson, Will Smith
Although a work stoppage is looming after the 2026 season, some of these players could be productive on a one-year or two-year contract.
Will Smith, for example, once won World Series rings three years in a row — for three different teams.
Kimbrel is a former Rookie of the Year, while Keuchel has a Cy Young Award on his trophy shelf.
Merrifield plays multiple positions, while Duvall has hit 38 home runs in a season and three in one game.
Gibson and Lynn are proven starters, though Corbin regressed with Washington in recent years.
With the season openers looming on March 27 (except for the Dodgers and Cubs in Tokyo), roster decisions should be fast and furious in the coming days . . .
If the Yankees lose Giancarlo Stanton, will they opt for aging but still powerful ex-Met J.D. Martinez? . . .
And how about reunions for Kimbrel and Duvall in Atlanta?
Former AP sportswriter Dan Schlossberg of Fair Lawn, NJ is the author of 42 baseball books, including Hank Aaron biographies 50 years apart and collaborations with Al Clark, Ron Blomberg, and Milo Hamiton. His email is ballauthor@gmail.com.
Timeless Trivia: Injured Stars Back With Braves
“We’re going to make two really good trades here early in the year. We're going to get an MVP and a potential Cy Young Award winner back. I think everybody realizes that. Their presence in the lineup and on the team is going to probably do more than they’ve ever thought possible.”
— Braves manager Brian Snitker on the return of Ronald Acuña, Jr. and Spencer Strider
Acuña, Jr., the unanimous MVP after his 40/70 season in 2023, tore his ACL last May 26 after Strider, the NL leader in wins and strikeouts in ‘23, needed an elbow brace procedure following his second start of the 2024 season . . .
Those injuries, coupled with lengthy injury-related absences of Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, and Sean Murphy, ended Atlanta’s six-year streak of division crowns, the longest such streak in the majors before it ended . . .
A hot spring by blue-chip rookie receiver Drake Baldwin, a left-handed contact hitter with power, also has the Atlanta camp excited . . .
More left-handed pop has arrived this year in the form of switch-hitting left-fielder Jurickson Profar, a 2024 NL All-Star starter with San Diego.
Know Your Editors
HERE’S THE PITCH is published daily except Sundays and holidays. Benjamin Chase [gopherben@gmail.com] handles the Monday issue with Dan Freedman [dfreedman@lionsgate.com] editing Tuesday and Jeff Kallman [easyace1955@outlook.com] at the helm Wednesday and Thursday. Original editor Dan Schlossberg [ballauthor@gmail.com], does the weekend editions on Friday and Saturday. Former editor Elizabeth Muratore [nymfan97@gmail.com] is now co-director [with Benjamin Chase and Jonathan Becker] of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America, which publishes this newsletter and the annual ACTA book of the same name. Readers are encouraged to contribute comments, articles, and letters to the editor. HtP reserves the right to edit for brevity, clarity, and good taste.