Minus Tucker, Can Astros Still Compete?
PLUS: CONSECUTIVE MVPs REMAIN A RARITY
Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
The Mets suffered a big blow when prospective staff ace Sean Manaea suffered an oblique problem that will force him to start the season on the IL . . .
Hard to believe veteran starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson remain unsigned even though exhibition play has started . . .
Ditto aged but still competent reliever David Robertson . . .
In his first seven seasons, Mike Schmidt had five seasons of at least 36 home runs and 100 RBIs without ever winning an MVP, though he later got his just due with back-to-back awards in 1980-81 . . .
The Washington Nationals inspired their crowd at Cacti Ballpark of the Palm Beaches last night with the National Anthem played live on a bugle . . .
Is Craig Kimbrel’s career over — and his bid for 500 career saves? Nobody has signed him, even though his original team (the Braves) badly needs bullpen arms.
Leading Off
Maybe Houston Was on to Something
By Ray Kuhn
Spring is the time for eternal optimism. Every team is in first place and most everyone is healthy. Only the best-case scenario is in play and the mood matches the sunny weather.
After Cam Smith hit two home runs earlier this week, that’s an important distinction to make. Through four early at bats, Smith has two home runs and two walks. He’s look great so far in Spring Training, and everything like the player who the Chicago Cubs took 14th overall in this past summer’s draft.
Smith had a dominating season for Florida State last year hitting .387 with 16 home runs, 57 RBI, and 82 runs scored in 66 games. He then followed that up by ending his professional season with five games at Double-A. It was a three level progression for Smith who reported to A-ball after being drafted and finished by hitting .313 in 32 games.
After striking out 14.9% last year in college, Smith continued that trend with a slight bump to 17.9%. The good news is that Smith maintained his double-digit walk rate while finishing with seven home runs and 24 RBI.
The good news is that Smith’s power and hit tool is still developing, but he is already generating solid production. There is the chance we see Smith in Houston this year, but regardless, he’s slated to be under their control at the major league level for six seasons.
That happens to be five more seasons than they had Kyle Tucker.
To be clear, no one is comparing Smith to Tucker. Everything truly has to break right for Smith to reach Tucker’s level of success. However, the projection and possibility is certainly there. And the Astros have ample time to unlock that and enjoy those benefits.
Considering Houston’s aversion to surpassing the CBT threshold, essentially acting as a Salary Cap, Tucker wasn’t going to be an Astro in 2026. This isn’t the space to litigate the case on how to feel about this, but it’s reality. Nothing against Tucker, but the Astros also turned the corner last season when he was sidelined with a league injury.
The biggest problem here is that the Astros are trying to compete in 2025 and head back to the World Series. Doing so with Smith in the organization instead of Tucker will make things more difficult.
Another problem, is that that while they at least showed effort, Alex Bregman was likely never returning. That meant the Astros had to be creative in filling his role as well. No matter what they did, swapping Tucker and Bregman for just about anyone wasn’t going to be fair. This isn’t an exercise in equal value, but instead in operating under the limitations they are working under. Whether or not they real and warranted is a different story.
In this situation, it’s also better to get Smith for Tucker as opposed to the nothing Houston received when Bregman signed with Boston.
Since we are still concerned with 2025, and this goes beyond Smith’s upside, the Astros also secured a known quantity with upside (Isaac Paredes) and an intriguing young pitcher (Hayden Wesneski) for Tucker.
Someone has to play third base with Bregman no longer around. Replacing the intangibles and the defense isn’t going to be easy. From the offensive side of the ball though, is there really much difference.
Last year, Bregman hit .260 so the Astros are giving up some average compared to Paredes’ .238. It was a rough year for him with just 19 home runs (Bregman had 26), but Paredes had five more RBI (80 vs. 75). In 2023, Paredes had 31 home runs and 98 RBI before struggling after being traded to Chicago last year.
Houston’s home park couldn’t be more ideal for Paredes and that will also help. Aside from batting average, Paredes could finish with a better 2025 season than Bregman.
At this point, Wesneski appears to be getting a chance to start the season in the rotation. He has interesting stuff, and if any organization can unlock it, it’s Houston.
Yes, the Astros are a worse team without Tucker, and Bregman, for that matter in 2025. When Smith reaches his All-Star potential, a lot of these negative feelings could be erased. What’s clear though, is that in 2026, the Astros will be better than if they hadn’t traded Tucker. The question, is how much of step back did they take this year, or does it even matter?
This is a decision to bank on continued success instead of a flex towards the 2025 championship. Trading Tucker in this deal certainly made that more difficult, but given their reluctance to expand the payroll, it was making the best of a bad situation. And Smith can generate the optimism for those feelings.
Ray Kuhn can be found covering Fantasy Sports on Fantrax after previously covering the Houston Astros as part of the FanSided network at Climbing Tal’s Hill. Reach him on X/Twitter at @ray_kuhn_28 or raykuhn57@gmail.com as he is always interested in talking or writing about our great game.
Cleaning Up
Will We Have Consecutive MVPs Again?
By Dan Schlossberg
Winning the MVP trophy is tough enough. Winning it more than once is exceedingly difficult. And winning it in consecutive years is next-to-impossible.
Since the MVP award was created in 1931 by the Baseball Writers Association of America [BBWAA], just 34 players have won it more than once, 14 of those have won it consecutively, and only one has won back-to-back trophies multiple times.
That being said, are Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani going to retain their trophies?
Judge, the towering slugger of the New York Yankees, is always a threat to break his own American League record of 62 home runs in a season. But he has to stay healthy first.
Judge also has to have a better all-around performance than somebody like Bobby Witt, Jr., the star shortstop of the Kansas City Royals and runner-up for the honor last year. Should the Royals win the AL Central — and especially if Witt produces a third straight 30/30 season — he could wrest the trophy from Judge, who now owns two of them.
As for Ohtani, he’s won two in a row — both by unanimous vote — but not in the same league. Signed as a free agent by the Dodgers, he produced the first 50/50 season in baseball history. Now that he’s also returning to pitching, could there possibly be a more valuable man in the National League?
Only one man has ever won three MVPs in a row and that man, Barry Bonds, actually monopolized the award for four years, from 2001-2004. Meanwhile, Ohtani is a good bet for his third in a row. If he wins by unanimous vote again, it would not only be a record also be the third straight time he’s done that.
So far, Ohtani and the late Frank Robinson are the only players to win MVPs in both leagues. But Robinson had five years between wins (1961 Reds and 1966 Orioles).
In additon to Ohtani and Bonds, players who have won the award in back-to-back seasons are Miguel Cabrera (2012-13), Albert Pujols (2008-09), Frank Thomas (1993-94), Dale Murphy (1982-83), Mike Schmidt (1980-81), Joe Morgan (1975-76), Roger Maris (1960-61), Ernie Banks (1958-59), Mickey Mantle (1956-57), Yogi Berra (1954-55), Hal Newhouser (1944-45), and Jimmie Foxx (1932-33). All are Hall of Famers but Ohtani, who is still active, plus Murphy and Maris.
Bonds. excluded from Cooperstown because voters suspect him of using artificial means to enhance his performance, also won consecutive awards in 1992-93 — making him the only man to win it at least two years in a row twice.
The most amazing multiple-MVP performance was that of Ernie (“Let’s play two”) Banks, since his Cubs finished fifth — and under .500 — during the two years he won back-to-back MVPs.
But what of this season?
Ohtani seems to have a lock on the trophy, though Juan Soto has topped him in salary and seems driven to win his first MVP. If he leads the Mets to resounding victory in the tough NL East, the award could be his.
Then there’s former MVP Ronald Acuña, Jr., whose unprecedented 40/70 season in 2023 made him a unanimous MVP. And let’s not forget Mookie Betts or Freddie Freeman, Ohtani’s Dodger teammates and both erstwhile MVPs on their own.
With Betts slated to play shortstop for the Dodgers this season, his chances have increased. If he wins, he’ll join Ohtani and Robinson as the only men to win MVP trophies in both leagues. Betts previously won while leading Boston to the 2018 world championship.
As for Freeman, he already has MVP trophies for both the regular season, with the 2021 Braves, and the World Series, with the 2024 Dodgers.
Way back when, Berra was in the top four finishers in MVP voting seven seasons in a row, winning the honor in 1954 (when Cleveland topped the Yankees for the pennant) and 1955.
The lone pitcher on the list is Hal Newhouser, the Detroit left-hander who led the majors in wins and strikeouts in both 1944-45, his MVP seasons. It’s worth noting that he beat the Cubs in Game 7 of the 1945 World Series.
Mantle was a perennial World Series presence, as the Yankees got there 10 times during the 12 years Casey Stengel ran the club. He compiled an 11.3 WAR in each of his MVP seasons, making him one of four position players to top 11 WAR twice.
The first man to win consecutive MVPs, Double X, led the majors in home runs, RBIs, slugging, and OPS in his MVP years while collecting 106 home runs and batting .360 for the late, great Philadelphia Athletics. He was later traded to the Boston Red Sox as Connie Mack needed cash to cope with Depression-era economics.
Since it’s so hard to win consecutive MVPs, how about predicting it won’t happen in 2025? From this perspective, we’re betting on Bobby Witt, Jr. in the American League and Betts in the National. Sorry, Shohei but it’s time to share.
Former AP sportswriter Dan Schlossberg of Fair Lawn, NJ is the author of 42 baseball books, including two Hank Aaron biographies and collaborations with Ron Blomberg, Al Clark, and Milo Hamilton. He’s now in spring training on assignment for forbes.com. Dan’s email is ballauthor@gmail.com.
Extra Innings: 22 Of 30 Clubs Cut 2025 Payroll
“I have a dream that starting the year, all 30 teams would be committed to be the last team standing.”
— Tony Clark, executive director, Major League Baseball Players Association
Although teams spent $3.2 billion in free agency this winter, eight teams have accounted for 75 per cent of that while the other 22 have cut payroll . . .
The figures are distorted by the Dodgers, whose projected payroll is on the cusp of $400 million, and the 15-year, $765 million pact Juan Soto signed with the Mets . . .
The Dodgers are masters of deferred dollars, with more than $1 billion on the books from such huge player contracts . . .
According to Bob Nightengale of USA TODAY, baseball revenues hit a record $12.1 billion in 2024 but 14 teams spent less than $45 million in free agency, preferring instead to invest in properties around their ballparks . . .
Nineteen teams actually spent less than the Athletics, who will spend the next three seasons living in the Twilight Zone of Sacramento between Oakland and Las Vegas . . .
The A’s had to raise payroll because they are a revenue-sharing recipient that could be subject to a grievance from the Players Association if their payroll did not represent 150 per cent of the assistance they receive . . .
Nightengale notes that just four of the top-spending teams won world championships in the past 25 years.
Know Your Editors
HERE’S THE PITCH is published daily except Sundays and holidays. Benjamin Chase [gopherben@gmail.com] handles the Monday issue with Dan Freedman [dfreedman@lionsgate.com] editing Tuesday and Jeff Kallman [easyace1955@outlook.com] at the helm Wednesday and Thursday. Original editor Dan Schlossberg [ballauthor@gmail.com], does the weekend editions on Friday and Saturday. Former editor Elizabeth Muratore [nymfan97@gmail.com] is now co-director [with Benjamin Chase and Jonathan Becker] of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America, which publishes this newsletter and the annual ACTA book of the same name. Readers are encouraged to contribute comments, articles, and letters to the editor. HtP reserves the right to edit for brevity, clarity, and good taste.