Making Sense Of The A's Surprisingly Good Start
Today, we unpack how, despite trading cornerstone players this offseason, the Oakland Athletics have outperformed expectations so far in 2022 thanks to new faces and old friends.
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Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
. . . Through the A’s first 11 games, they lead the American League with 58 runs scored, an average of 5.27 runs per game. Over the 2021 season, Oakland averaged 4.59 runs per game by scoring 743 runs over 162 games, which ranked sixth in the AL. So far this season, the A’s rank fifth in the AL in hits (81) and fourth in home runs (12, tied with Minnesota), but they rank just 12th in the AL in on-base percentage (.288) and 11th in OPS (.649).
. . . Cristian Pache, who the A’s acquired from the Atlanta Braves in the Matt Olson trade, has had an eventful week. On April 14, he hit a “Little League” homer against the Tampa Bay Rays, circling the bases on a ground ball that the Rays’ defense booted.
That same game, he made an impressive basket catch in center field to rob the Rays’ Manuel Margot of a hit.
Two days later on April 16, he hit a go-ahead two-run homer against the Toronto Blue Jays in the ninth inning of an eventual 7-5 win.
Leading Off
The A’s Are Off To A Solid Start — What To Make Of It?
By Rich Campbell
After Monday night’s home opener, a 5-1 victory over the last-place Baltimore Orioles, the Oakland A’s record stood at 6-5. Not bad for a team predicted by FanGraphs to go 70-92 in 2022, after an offseason that saw long-term manager Bob Melvin depart for the perceived greener pastures of the San Diego Padres. Also, out the door were Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, all via trade. Meanwhile, free agents Mark Canha, Starling Marte, Josh Harrison, Mitch Moreland, Yan Gomes, Andrew Chafin, Jake Diekman, Sergio Romo and Yusmeiro Petit all left, too.
But rather than dwell on the departed talent, this first monthly article on the 2022 campaign, back for a second season by perceived demand (and a willingness by yours truly to write it), focuses on what the team is actually doing on the field, as the Oakland franchise ushers in a new era.
Record Recap
The 6-5 start is a pleasant surprise, as the team opened with a record-setting ten-game road trip to open the season, caused by the late start after the offseason lockout. Facing the stiff test of visiting Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and Toronto — all teams viewed as contenders heading into the 2022 campaign — the A’s fared as well as could be expected by going 5-5. Tack on Monday’s win before a boisterous, albeit small, opening night crowd of 17,503 fans and we get the team’s 6-5 mark, just half a game behind the Houston Astros at this writing.
Stat Nobody Saw Coming
At this early date, do you know which team is leading the American League in run differential? The Oakland A’s at +14. The four National League teams with a higher run differential (Los Angeles +30, New York +26, San Francisco +23) are a combined 22-7.
Who Is The New Guy?
With such a young team this year, this space will focus on a new player each month. Kevin Smith is a 25-year-old infielder, who was acquired from Toronto in the Matt Chapman deal. So far, he has mostly played third base for the Athletics. The 2017 fourth rounder out of the University of Maryland slashed .285/.370/.561 in 410 plate appearances in Triple-A Buffalo last year. For the A’s, this season is about determining if he is an everyday player or more of a Chad Pinder-like bench player, as Smith has displayed infield and outfield versatility in his Minor League résumé.
Regression To The Mean Candidates
When a team has played only 11 games, all stats are small sample size theater, of course. But two players to watch are back-of-the-rotation guys Paul Blackburn and Daulton Jefferies. While each only has two starts on the young season, each has an ERA under 2.00 (Blackburn is at 1.80 and Jefferies is at 1.93). Certainly, no one expects them to pitch to that level for the duration of the season, though coming up with a pair of affordable starters under team control that could each put up 25-plus starts with an ERA around league average would be a boon to this team’s chances of exceeding expectations. We will check back next month on this pair.
Old Guys Report
While the 2022 squad is much younger than last year’s squad, there are still “old” guys on the team and this space shines a light on one such player each month. So, this month it makes sense to start with A’s stalwart Jed Lowrie. At age 38 and in his seventh season in the green and gold, Lowrie provides a veteran presence, and more importantly the dude can still hit. In seven games so far this year, he is slashing .250/.348/.400 with four runs scored and four RBIs in just 23 plate appearances. The switch-hitter is a veteran I look forward to monitoring all year, unless he is moved at the trade deadline.
Coming Up
The A’s finish their four-game set with the Orioles Thursday, followed by a weekend series against the Texas Rangers in Oakland. After a day off Monday, a quick two-game jaunt to San Francisco is followed by another off-day. The A’s are then home vs. the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays before embarking on a road trip to Minnesota and Detroit.
Rich Campbell is a Marketing Professor at Sonoma State University by day and A’s fan by night. He has previously been a sports business contributor at Forbes.com and his academic writing has appeared in Sport Marketing Quarterly. You can find him on Twitter @RichCampbellPhD.