Major League Baseball Will Have Another 300-Game Winner
Justin Verlander could be the last 300-game winner in MLB for a while, but there will be more
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Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
. . . Reaching 300 wins has long been considered a pinnacle pitching milestone, though there are almost an equal amount of pitchers with 250-299 wins (25) as with 300+ (24).
The difference between the two milestones is evident in Hall of Fame voting. Only one pitcher with 300+ victories is not in the HOF (and Roger Clemens’ exclusion is not due to his on-field performance). Of the 25 with 250-299 victories, nine have not been voted into the HOF, with one that hasn’t reached eligibility yet, one that is on the ballot, and one active.
The two pitchers with the most wins between 250-299 are both currently left out of the Hall. Bobby Mathews won 297 games between 1871 and 1887. Tommy John won 288 games between 1963 and 1989 (not to mention being the namesake to a surgery that has revolutionized pitching).
Leading Off
MLB Will Have Another 300-game Winner
By Benjamin Chase
When Justin Verlander laces up his cleats for his first start of 2024, the righty will be 41 years old. The former second-overall draft pick out of Old Dominion will be pitching in his 18th full major league season (he made two starts in 2005).
Verlander currently sits at 257 wins. To reach 300 wins, one of those iconic marks in Major League Baseball (MLB), Justin will need 43 wins before he calls it a career. He won 31 games the past two seasons after returning from Tommy John surgery that limited him to one start in 2020-2021.
Playing for a team like Houston that should give him plenty of opportunities for victories will allow Verlander a good shot at reaching the milestone, and if he reaches 140 innings pitched in 2024, he has a guaranteed contract in 2025, when he'll be 42. It'd require two impressive seasons for him to reach it by then, meaning he likely will have one more contract negotiation, with 300 wins as the primary selling point to bidding teams.
Will Verlander be the last to challenge 300 wins? Maybe even the last to clear 250 wins?
Let's first take a look at the history of 300-game winners.
Dead-ball Era Creation
There have been 24 players to reach 300 wins in the entire history of the game. Eleven of those 24 won their 300th game through the 1924 season.
What major thing happened in the mid-1920s? The game drastically changed to a "live" ball that drastically improved offense. After the game shifted toward offense, only three pitchers won their 300th game in a 57-season time frame between 1925 and 1982.
The changes to favor pitching in the 1960s as well as the adaption of sliders and split-finger fastballs, among other pitches, ushered in a new era of "big" winners in the game, as ten pitchers won their 300th game from 1982 to 2009.
One “Empty” Decade Already
Already, no matter what is going to happen with Verlander, an entire decade of players will not reach the 300-win plateau, as no player that debuted in the 1990s reached 300 wins and none will, as there are no remaining pitchers that debuted in the 1990s.
However, that is not uncommon, as only two decades since 1950 have even seen a pitcher debut that would win 300 games. Still, it's two of the most common debut decades in the entire history of the game, as the 1960s had six future 300-game winners debut, and the 1980s had four debuts (tied for second-most in a decade with the 1880s).
That said, since the live ball era began in the 1920s, those are the only two decades with more than one future 300-game winner debut.
The Future
History shows us that changes in the game strongly dictate how many players achieve any number of career milestones. A focus on speed and athleticism that began being put into play in the rule book this past season could work to restructure lineups from the teams full of power hitters in from leadoff to 9-hole.
That could be counter-balanced by the implementation of the designated hitter throughout baseball. Adding the designated hitter is an obvious difference in pitchers that accomplished winning 300 games, as since the rule was implemented in 1973, only one of the ten pitchers that have won their 300th game did so after pitching the majority of his seasons in the American League. The designated hitter rule being part of more games with interleague play cannot be ignored in the fact that no pitcher who debuted after interleague play has yet won 300 games.
In general, though, we see ebbs and flows in the game that last decades. The pitching-friendly 1960s to early-1990s spawned 10 300-game winner debuts. Hitting-friendly conditions since have slowed that pace, so just as quickly a move toward pitching again will open the door for more 300-game winners.
Benjamin Chase is a newspaper reporter in South Dakota with an intense love for baseball. He is a co-editor for Here’s the Pitch, writes for Rotoballer, and is the co-host of the Pallazzo Podcast prospect show among other writing and podcasting. He can be found on most social media under biggentleben.
Timeless Trivia
The first pitcher to win his 300th game is also the first pitcher who ever threw a perfect game, though neither was a recognized feat at the time.
Who was this pitcher?
Not possible considering Verlander's age and long distance from 300 wins. Bill James agrees in his latest Bill James Handbook, which contains computer-simulated projections that give him only a 29% chance and no one else more than 5%. Not good odds.