Major League Baseball Completes First Half
Observations on the first half of the MLB season
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Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
. . . If the playoffs started today, the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles would end six-year playoff droughts, the third-longest active drought in MLB.
. . . After two stolen bases Sunday, Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna, Jr. has 21 home runs and 39 stolen bases. That already puts him among 86 total players in baseball history that have put together a 20-homer, 35-steal season. No player has ever had 30 home runs and 60 stolen bases nor 40 home runs and 50 stolen bases. Two players (Eric Davis 1987 and Barry Bonds 1992) have hit 30 home runs and stolen 50 bases.
Leading Off
MLB First Half Observations
By Benjamin Chase
This past week, each major league team reached 81 games played on the season, the official halfway point of a 162-game regular season. While the All-Star break is still a week away (July 11), the statistical midway point of the year has already been achieved.
So what have we learned this season?
The Rays and Braves Are Good
While both Tampa Bay and Atlanta were generally expected to be playoff teams entering the season, both have been heads and shoulders above the rest of baseball this season. The thing that is most impressive is that they hold the top two records in the league despite missing major pieces of their respective starting rotations for the majority of the first half.
The Braves lead all of baseball with 158 home runs, 26 ahead of the second-place team in the game...you guessed it, the Rays. The Rays have the top OPS+ in the game as a team at 123, one ahead of the Braves.
Rule Changes Spur Innovators
Teams that are taking advantage of the rule changes that encourage strong overall defenders and pushing the tempo on the bases are finding success. Tampa Bay is the only team with more than 100 stolen bases, but second is the upstart Cincinnati Reds. Of the top five teams, only Oakland (who has just one player in double-digits, league leader Esteury Ruiz with 42, roughly half of the team's overall total) is not currently in a playoff position.
The top five teams in defensive runs saved all would make the playoffs, with the Rangers holding strong in the American League West and leading MLB with 44 DRS. Milwaukee is also very highly rated as the Brewers are tied atop the NL Central despite missing their co-ace Brandon Woodruff for much of the first half and having struggles offensively.
Rookie Starting Pitchers Are a Hit
Seventy-seven rookie pitchers have made at least one start this year. That is ahead of the pace of 2019 and 2022 and on par with 2021's numbers for overall rookies to make a start (a year that was inflated by 2020 debuts that still had rookie eligibility in 2021).
The view is more drastic when you take just players that have debuted in 2023, as 95 pitchers have debuted this season, and 40 of those have made at least one start. That's already nearly the same amount of debut arms that made starts in the last three full seasons, and we're only halfway through the season.
While many will debate the true impact of rookie starters, pitchers like Hunter Brown, Ryne Nelson, Tanner Bibbee, Taj Bradley, Jhony Brito, and Eury Perez have already made big impacts on the standings. Additionally, starters like Kodai Senga, Bryce Miller, Bobby Miller, Andrew Abbott, and others have impacted their MLB team thus far and could have a notable impact on the postseason chances for their team.
Even With "New" Rules, the Game Remains
Many lamented the pitch clock, shift restrictions, wider bases, and pickoff restrictions that were all put into place this year, stating that it was too much change, too fast, and that the number of changes would significantly impact the quality of the game.
So far, it's essentially the same game as 2022. Scoring is up, but less than seven percent overall. While home runs and batting average on balls in play are both up, the change is also less than a 10% increase.
The biggest difference does lie in the stolen bases, which are up more than 40% over 2022's pace, but already the success rate of stolen bases is down just short of one percent from April to June, so teams are beginning to make adjustments on that as well.
The first half has been fun - and we still have a whole half of 2023 to go! Play ball!
Benjamin Chase is a newspaper reporter in rural South Dakota. He also edits the Here’s the Pitch newsletter, writes for Rotoballer, and is the co-host of the weekly Pallazzo Podcast prospects podcast. He can be found on Twitter: @biggentleben.