Does Aaron Judge Hurt the Yankees in Sudden-Death Games?
ALSO: JUMPING FROM TOP ROOKIE TO TOP PLAYER OVERNIGHT
Pregame Pepper: Trade Rumors Get Hotter
San Francisco has more worries than its lowly spot in the standings: it fired highly-regarded incumbent manager Bob Melvin, eating his $4MM salary, then paid a $3 million buyout to obtain University of Tennessee college coach Tony Vitello and finally gave Vitello a three-year deal worth $3.5 million a year . . .
Now there are swirling rumors of a fire sale that could make ex-Giants of Rafael Devers, Robbie Ray, Willy Adames, and Matt Chapman, among others . . .
The Mets might also be moving players, especially in the wake of injuries to pitcher Christian Scott (hip impingement), Jorge Polanco (ankle), Luis Robert, Jr. (back), and Francisco Lindor (calf) . . .
Even the front-running Braves figure to be in the market and are gauging interest in slumping but overpaid third baseman Austin Riley, who could go to the Boston Red Sox for Jarren Duran and Aroldis Chapman or to the New York Yankees for Ryan McMahon and a couple of prospects . . .
If Byron Buxton finally waives his no-trade clause, the Minnesota Twins might make the star outfielder available, with Philadelphia and his native Atlanta likely to become his biggest suitors . . .
The Phils are fishing for a flyhawk after learning that free agent signee Adolis Garcia (one year, $10 million), who provided pop plus an elite arm in right field, will be out 6-8 months after surgery to repair his latissimus dorsi — damaged during June 10 throw home.
Leading Off
A Deep Dive: Judge’s Elimination Games
By Paul Semendinger
Aaron Judge is one of the greats in the game today. Of that there is no question and no debate. He is a superstar.
Maybe unfortunately, Aaron Judge plays for the New York Yankees, where there is an expectation that superstars bring World Series championships. To date, Judge has not delivered on that hope or promise. Aaron Judge risks going down in history as the greatest Yankee to never win a championship.
I decided to do a deep dive into Judge’s performances in post-season elimination (”Win or Go Home”) games to see if there is any correlation between his lack of rings and his own performance in those big games.
Has Aaron Judge worked to erase the championship drought or has he contributed to it?
Here are the results:
2017 Wild Card vs Minnesota Twins
Team Result - Yankees Win, 8-4
Aaron Judge - 2-for-3, HR, 1 walk, 2 runs batted in, 3 runs scored
2017 ALDS Game 5 vs Cleveland Indians
Team Result - Yankees Win, 5-2
Aaron Judge - 0-for-5, 4 strikeouts
2017 Game 7 vs Houston Astros
Team Result - Yankees Lose, 4-0
Aaron Judge - 0-for-4, strikeout
2018 Wild Card vs Oakland A’s
Team Result - Yankees Win, 7-2
Aaron Judge - 2-for-3, 2B, HR, 2 runs batted in, 2 runs scored
2018 ALDS Game 4 vs Boston Red Sox
Team Result - Yankees Lose, 4-3
Aaron Judge - 0-for-3, BB, run scored
2019 ALCS Game 6 vs Houston Astros
Team Result - Yankees Lose, 6-4
Aaron Judge - 1-for-4, walk, 2 strikeouts
2020 ALDS Game 5 vs Tampa Bay Rays
Team Result - Yankees Lose, 2-1
Aaron Judge - 1-for-3, HR, run, RBI, walk
2021 Wild Card vs Boston Red Sox
Team Result - Yankees Lose, 6-2
Aaron Judge - 1-for-4
2022 ALDS Game 5 vs Cleveland Guardians
Team Result - Yankees Win, 5-1
Aaron Judge - 2-for-4, HR, run, rbi, 2 strikeouts
2022 ALCS Game 4 vs Houston Astros
Team Result - Yankees Lose,6-5
Aaron Judge - 0-for-4, walk, strikeout
2024 World Series Game 5 vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Team Result - Yankees Lose 7-6
Aaron Judge - 2-for-3, HR, 2 runs batted in, run, 2 walks
2025 Wild Card vs Boston Red Sox
Team Result - Yankees Win, 4-0
Aaron Judge - 0-for-3
2025 ALDS Game 4 vs Toronto Blue Jays
Team Result - Yankees Lose, 5-2
Aaron Judge - 2-for-4, rbi, walk, strikeout
Summary — In elimination games, Judge’s Yankees have won five games and lost eight.
Aaron Judge has 15 hits in 54 at-bats (.278) with one double, five home runs, 11 runs batted in, and 11 runs scored. He has walked eight times and struck out 12 times.
During the regular season, Judge homers in nine per cent of his at-bats. In elimination games, he has also homered in nine per cent of his at-bats.
In his career, Aaron Judge’s Yankees have certainly failed to win the big prize, but in the win-or-go-home games, Judge has performed basically at his standard levels. The Yankees’ overall poor performance in those games cannot be pinned on him.
Paul Semendinger runs the Yankees site Start Spreading the News. He is the author of numerous baseball books including The Greatest New York Yankees By Uniform Number. Paul is also the author of West Point at Gettysburg, Impossible is an Illusion, 365.2, and Scattering the Ashes.
Cleaning Up
From Rookies of the Year To Instant MVPs
By Dan Schlossberg
Not counting Fred Lynn and Ichiro Suzuki, both of whom won Rookie of the Year and MVP trophies in the same season, only four players have collected the top rookie and MVP awards in back-to-back campaigns.
There could be two more in 2026.
Reigning Rookies of the Year Nick Kurtz of The Athletics and Drake Baldwin of the Braves have emerged as legitimate candidates for Most Valuable Player honors.
With Aaron Judge idled by a broken rib, Kurtz is burying rival pitching — keeping the pitching-thin Athletics alive in the weak American League West.
And Baldwin, before losing a month with an oblique injury, was giving the Braves enough offense to compensate for the first-half slumps of Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Austin Riley.
Kurtz figures to have opposition from Yordan Alvarez, who’s a potential Triple Crown contender with the Houston Astros, while Baldwin’s biggest MVP challenger figures to be Shohei Ohtani, who has already won the trophy twice in each league.
At this stage of the season, however, Ohtani seems more likely to win the National League’s Cy Young Award than another MVP. Sure, he remains a two-way star, not to mention a svelte slugger who produced the only 50/50 season in baseball history.
But his power hasn’t been the same this season, with only 11 home runs as the calendar approaches the half-way mark.
The fact that Baldwin mans the most difficult position, as opposed to DH Ohtani not playing the field unless he pitches, could influence voters at year’s end.
Baldwin returned to action Tuesday after learning he was leading the fan vote to be the National League’s starting catcher in the July 14 All-Star Game in Philadelphia. Leading off the game, he hit the first pitch he saw to dead center — a 473-foot drive that was the longest home run any player hit so far this season.
It’s hard enough to win the Rookie of the Year award. But vaulting right to MVP is exceptionally difficult.
The first time it happened was 1983, when Baltimore shortstop Cal Ripken, Jr. followed American League Rookie of the Year honors with an MVP award.
Another infielder, Dustin Pedroia of the Boston Red Sox, was the 2008 AL MVP a year after winning Rookie of the Year.
Then there were Philadelphia first baseman Ryan Howard, who went from top rookie to MVP in 2006, and Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs 10 years later.
HtP weekend editor Dan Schlossberg of Fair Lawn, NJ covers baseball for Lucas Communications, Memories & Dreams, USA TODAY Sports Weekly, Sports Collectors Digest, and Here’s the Pitch, among other outlets. His email is ballauthor@gmail.com.
Timeless Trivia: Positions and Performances
“I love catching.”
— Yankees first baseman Ben Rice, a catcher in the minors
Yankees catchers started the week with the second-worst aggregate OPS (.526) . . .
Rice, the Yankees’ current home run leader, caught during spring training workouts but not in any exhibition games . . .
Former All-Star Game MVP Elias Diaz, signed as a free agent by the Texas Rangers, is hitting close to .300 since his arrival . . .
A Manny Machado single was the lone blemish on a route-going, complete-game, one-hitter by Dodger discard Dustin May, now with St. Louis . . .
That 3-0 game at Busch Stadium Monday took only two hours and eight minutes . . .
Kudos to Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong for producing the first cycle of 2026 and to Phillies freshman Gabriel Rincones, Jr. for collecting his first hit with a home run . . .
Tale of two Chicagos: the once-woeful White Sox opened the week on top of the American League Central while the crosstown Cubs — despite two 10-game winning streaks — were only one game ahead of the fourth-place Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League Central.
Know Your Editors
Here’s the Pitch is published daily except Sundays and holidays. Benjamin Chase [gopherben@gmail.com] handles the Monday issue with Dan Freedman [dfreedman@lionsgate.com] editing Tuesday and Jeff Kallman [easyace1955@outlook.com] at the helm Wednesday and Thursday. Original editor Dan Schlossberg [ballauthor@gmail.com], does the weekend editions on Friday and Saturday. Former editor Elizabeth Muratore [nymfan97@gmail.com] is now co-director [with Benjamin Chase and Jonathan Becker] of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America, which publishes this newsletter and the annual ACTA book of the same name. Readers are encouraged to contribute comments, articles, and letters to the editor. HtP reserves the right to edit for brevity, clarity, and good taste.