Clearing A Post For Pedroia In Cooperstown
PLUS: GREEDY BELLINGER ILLUSTRATES WHY FREE AGENT PROCESS STINKS
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Pregame Pepper: Cooperstown’s New Class
Carlos Beltran, virtually certain to be elected to Cooperstown next week, missed by 19 votes last year . . .
Fellow outfielder Andruw Jones, the 10-time Gold Glove center-fielder likely to join him, fell 35 short a year ago . . .
Electors have apparently forgiven Beltran for his alleged involvement in the 2017 electronic sign-stealing scandal by the Houston Astros . . .
Manny Ramirez is in his 10th and final year on the writers’ ballot before his name, record, and alleged PED activities revert to the Eras Committee for future consideration . . .
With both Beltran and Jeff Kent part of the Class of 2026, the three-man election class will have a strong New York Mets flavor, attracting many drive-up fans for the free July 26 induction ceremonies at Clark Sports Center . . .
Remember that boomlet for Omar Vizquel a few years back? Thanks to his legal troubles, he’s hardly polling 12 per cent in the tallies this year . . .
Buster Posey and Jon Lester lead the first-time eligibles for next year, with holdovers Chase Utley, Andy Pettitte, and Felix Hernandez also nearing 75 per cent . . .
Results of this year’s BBWAA voting will be announced on MLB Network Tuesday night at 6 EST by Hall of Fame president Josh Rawitch.
Leading Off
WAR in the Hall: A Case for Dustin Pedroia
By Brig Berthold
Dustin Pedroia remains a borderline prospective Hall of Famer. The fact is, if he wasn’t good enough, he’d have already fallen off the ballot. People doubt his candidacy, citing his countable numbers, relatively short peak, and injury-stunted career. This, however, is demonstrably flawed thinking. Beyond the numbers, there’s one more factor to which the writers don’t give enough credit.
According to the Baseball Hall of Fame, “Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.”
In 14 seasons with the Red Sox, Pedroia was a Rookie of the Year, MVP, four-time All-Star, four-time Gold Glove award winner, silver slugger award winner, and two-time World Series Champion.
Offensive numbers dominate the Hall of Fame and voters’ ballots. But unless you’re a pitcher or DH, you play both offense and defense. Unless their contributions at the plate force a team to retain them, players with substandard defense are cut. So why are defensive numbers treated by some as lesser?
From 2006 to 2020, Pedroia was elite compared to his contemporaries (Robinson Canó is removed from this list for violation of MLB’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program). Pedroia was 4th in Putouts, 3rd in Assists, 3rd in Double Plays (Ian Kinsler, 1183; Brandon Phillips, 965; Pedroia, 862), 2nd in overall Fielding Percentage (FPCT) at .991 (Mark Ellis, .994), 2nd overall in Defensive Runs Saved (Ellis, 105), 1st in Ultimate Zone Rating at 87.5, and T-2nd in Ultimate Zone Rating/150 (UZR/150) with 9.1 (Eillis). Fangraphs lists Pedroia as the top defensive second baseman with 88.5 during that period.
Even this data set is skewed somewhat—giving his peers significant time to close the gaps—as it includes his 31 games in 2006 and his final three, injury-shortened seasons with only nine games. Trimming the sample size to his peak, and fully qualified seasons, Pedroia was the top second baseman in the league from 2007-2017, posting a 53.3 bWAR.
But this is about the history of baseball, not just the era in which he played. Where does Pedroia rank against the 21 second basemen currently enshrined?
Better than nine in career WAR, JAWS, WAR7, and better than 15 guys in terms of WAR/162. Only 12 have a single MVP award. Pedroia would be the third to have won Rookie of the Year, joining Jackie Robinson and Rod Carew.
For some, Jeff Kent’s induction removed the final barrier between Pedroia and Cooperstown. No doubt, Kent’s offensive numbers outshone Pedroia’s, but the difference in bWAR between 51.8 and 55.4 is a matter of perhaps two full seasons. A season-long WAR of around 2 is considered average for an everyday second baseman. Pedroia’s only sub-2 WAR seasons were 2006, 2018, and 2019. A 3.8 WAR was a below-average season for Pedroia. What about errors? Kent: 195; Pedroia: 57. Fielding percentage? Kent: .980; Pedroia: .991. WAR? Look for yourself:
KENT 55.4 career WAR | 35.8 7yr-peak WAR | 3.9 WAR/162 | 45.6 JAWS
PEDROIA 51.8 career WAR | 40.9 7yr-peak WAR | 5.6 WAR/162 | 46.4 JAWS
If that’s not enough, let’s get an even more specific comparison, examining offense.
Bobby Doerr: 14 seasons, .288/.362/.461, 51.4 bWAR (4.5/162), 115 OPS+, 44.1 JAWS
Dustin Pedroia: 14 seasons, .299/.365/.439, 51.9 bWAR (5.6/162), 113 OPS+, 46.5 JAWS
Pedroia’s resume speaks for itself, and still, there will be those who refuse to acknowledge the countables. If we’re going to place significant emphasis on character infractions—PEDs, domestic issues, poor media interaction, etc.—then it stands that guys without such controversy be afforded the same degree of positives as their counterparts with negative points. The absence of negative qualities should not immediately equate to positive votes. But positive qualities should equate to positive votes.
Misuse of banned substances? No. Violations of MLB’s domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy? No. Betting on baseball? No.
He was an infield anchor at the keystone position for two Red Sox World Series Championship teams. Despite his injury-absent role on the field, the 2018 World Series Championship team undoubtedly benefited from his mentorship and clubhouse presence. Alex Cora, manager of the Red Sox in ‘18, said as much. “[Pedroia] was a great teammate, he was a great leader, he was part of the team meetings and in the dugout the whole time. He was paying attention to the game. He was outstanding for us.”
Whether he was on the field or not, his teammates loved him.
“Not only great talent and an MVP-type player, he brought heart, soul, and hustle to all the teams that he played on,” said Jason Varitek, Red Sox catcher from 1997-2011. “As a competitor, no one stands quite as tall as Pedroia.”
Red Sox pitcher Jonathan Papelbon said, “Dustin is the most inspiring person and player I have ever been around. He makes everyone around him a better player and person…He is an amazing husband, father, son, friend, and athlete.”
Hall of Famer David Ortiz agrees. “He was committed to do well for his team and his teammates. His commitment was extraordinary…He was the whole package. I’m happy, thankful, grateful and proud that I was able to have a teammate like him because he was a guy who motivated me to do well.”
On Opening Day in 2013, Pedroia slid into first base, tore the UCL in his left thumb, and then played 160 games. He played the way we all profess to celebrate, with grit and respect for the game. If you want a visual reminder, watch Pedroia range to his right, make a diving stop behind second base, pop up, and make a perfect throw to beat Miguel Tejada’s dive into first base, saving Clay Buchholz’s no-hitter.
Respectable offensive numbers while playing a defense-first position. Sustained, elite defensive capabilities. Clutch play. Impeccable character. Holds up to both contemporary and historical comparison. Widely beloved and respected. Championships.
Dustin Pedroia deserves to be enshrined in Cooperstown.
Cleaning Up
Boras + Bellinger = Highway Robbery
By Dan Schlossberg
Cody Bellinger is a decent player, probably an All-Star but definitely not a future Hall of Famer.
He’s hit a pedestrian .261 over nine seasons, only once reaching the 40-homer plateau.
For that, he wants to be paid like Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, and Mickey Mantle all rolled into one.
Thanks to the machinations of his money-grubbing agent, Scott Boras, and the stupidity of revealing every player’s salary, Bellinger is demanding a seven-year contract — longer than any player in Yankees history not named Max Fried.
Sure, he can play all three outfield spots and provide decent defense at first base too. But he’s won just a solitary Gold Glove — and that was years ago.
The fact that he bats left-handed also helps, especially considering the short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium.
Twice an All-Star, Bellinger also has a Rookie of the Year trophy and MVP award on his trophy shelf. But he wasn’t even the best hitter available on the free-agent market this winter.
Except in his own mind.
Forget the Kyles — Tucker and Schwarber — and the Polar Bear — Pete Alonso. Suddenly Bellinger wants to crown himself Most Likely to Succeed in the 2026 Free Agent Class.
Boras, notorious for delaying decisions on placing players with new teams, is up to his usual tricks, producing voluminous print publications extolling the virtues of his clients. They’re so tilted that they might have been produced by the same guy who proclaimed Donald Trump “a very stable genius.”
On Baseball-Reference.com, Bellinger’s comps are Teoscar Hernandez, Wally Post, and Jesse Barfield, among others. No Hall of Famers there.
But Boras and Bellinger are boasting that the player’s sensational first month — his 1.398 OPS in April 2019 (min. 125 PA) was the best in a century — is enough of a selling point to warrant the gold of Fort Knox and more.
Chances are Bellinger will wind up in New York or Los Angeles, cities where money is no object, but what would motivate him to play his hardest after that?
HtP weekend editor Dan Schlossberg of Fair Lawn, NJ also covers baseball for forbes.com, Memories & Dreams, USA TODAY Sports Weekly, Sports Collectors Digest, and many other outlets. His email is ballauthor@gmail.com.
Timeless Trivia: Free Agent Market Goes Wild
The free agent market this week had more twists and turns than Lombard Street in San Francisco.
The Phillies, for example, met with Bo Bichette but wound up re-signing J.T. Realmuto, the last solid available catcher, after the former Toronto shortstop opted for the Mets instead . . .
Philadelphia third baseman Alec Bohm, who had been on the trade bloc, breathed a sigh of relief, since Bichette won’t supplant him at the hot corner . . .
As a result, the Phils will have Realmuto plus Bohm for about the same price they would have paid Bichette . . .
The negative part is age — or too much of it — as Bichette won’t turn 28 until March and the Phillies are a team that is aging quickly . . .
So, by the way, are the Dodgers, though signing Kyle Tucker, not yet 30, was a major coup by L.A. no matter the cost . . .
Despite the maneuvering, Cody Bellinger remains available and will probably be the center of a protracted bidding war involving both New York teams, the Blue Jays, and perhaps the Phillies, who need a dependable center-fielder.
Know Your Editors
Here’s the Pitch is published daily except Sundays and holidays. Benjamin Chase [gopherben@gmail.com] handles the Monday issue with Dan Freedman [dfreedman@lionsgate.com] editing Tuesday and Jeff Kallman [easyace1955@outlook.com] at the helm Wednesday and Thursday. Original editor Dan Schlossberg [ballauthor@gmail.com], does the weekend editions on Friday and Saturday. Former editor Elizabeth Muratore [nymfan97@gmail.com] is now co-director [with Benjamin Chase and Jonathan Becker] of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America, which publishes this newsletter and the annual ACTA book of the same name. Readers are encouraged to contribute comments, articles, and letters to the editor. HtP reserves the right to edit for brevity, clarity, and good taste.