Jacob deGrom's Unfinished Business
. . . and other observations.
Pregame Pepper
. . . Six-Shooting Dept.—Only six players have hit inside-the-park home runs and grand slams in the same single game. Number six: Red Sox outfielder Wilyer (or Won’tyer) Abreu, who’s usually known as an elite-level defender, but who turned the inside-and-slammer trick against the Reds Monday. The company he joins, courtesy of the indispensable Sarah Langs: Jocko Fields (5 June 1890), Everett Scott (Fourth of July, 1923), Hall of Famer Charlie Gehringer (4 August 1930), Jim. Tabor (Fourth of July, 1939), and Roger Maris (3 August 1958).
. . . Time Passages Dept.—Abreu’s was the first inside-the-park homer at Fenway Park since Jacoby Ellsbury did it in 2011. It also took 67 years between Maris’s inside-and-slammer and Abreu’s, the longest-such drought between those who’ve accomplished the feat.
. . . Taking the Standing O Dept.—Last Friday night, Reds infielder Spencer Steer received a standing ovation in Great American Ball Park . . . when he struck out in the eighth. Half an inning later, Reds pitcher Nick Martinez got a standing O, too . . . after surrendering a walk and a double to open the San Diego ninth. Well, you’d get a standing O on a strikeout, too, if you’d clobbered three home runs earlier in the game. You’d also get a standing O for surrendering inning-opening baserunners in the ninth if you’d spent the previous eight innings no-hitting the other guys. (The Reds won the game, 8-1.)
Leading Off
DeGrom’s Unfinished Legacy
Appreciating his greatness, acknowledging his unfinished business
By Allen Settle
Texas Rangers ace Jacob deGrom was once quoted as saying, “Normally when I look at stuff, I try to look at the good things.” As the legendary starter’s career begins to round into form, this is an important perspective as we attempt to discern his place in major league history.
In one sense, deGrom is among the most dominant forces to ever pitch major league baseball. He is a former National League Rookie of the Year (2014), World Series Champion (2023), and four-time All-Star. He is also one of only 22 pitchers in history to win multiple Cy Young awards (2). Tragically, a slew of untimely injuries , including two Tommy John surgeries, have cost him enough time to impact his legacy significantly.
Many of deGrom’s per-inning stats rank in the top ten in league history. He ranks fourth all-time in Ks-per-9 while also boasting the fourth-best ERA+ , and second in lowest WHIP. He also became the fastest player in the modern era to 1,700 strikeouts .
At his peak, very few pitchers can compete with the former 9th-round draft pick’s elite production. If it were not for his injury struggles, he may have had a path toward cracking the top-ten starting pitchers the game has ever seen. When you zoom out, the plethora of missed games suppresses deGrom’s counting stats.
Currently, he ranks 43rd all-time in ERA, 717th in wins , and 134th in total strikeouts. At 37 years old, there is a clear cap on how far the former Met can climb up those lists. That’s had a tangible impact on his Hall of Fame chances and his overall legacy. But when processing this unique career arc, the best approach is to remember deGrom’s own words: Look at the good things.
While the ace cannot be elevated above peers who consistently started games over 15- to 20-year careers, his uncommon dominance also cannot be ignored. deGrom joins a tier of oft-injured stars including Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax plus J.R. Richard, Dwight Gooden, Tim Lincecum, Stephen Strasburg, and Chris Sale. While it’s an unfortunate group to be a part of, that doesn’t doom his legacy.
If he retired today, the available metrics suggest deGrom would be worthy of a top-50 spot among all-time starting pitchers. Fortunately, the window to add to his already-impressive résumé is still open.
For the sake of a ballpark projection, let’s assume deGrom’s second-half production in 2025 declines by 15% from his first-half pace. That would add six wins and 79 strikeouts to his career totals. Let’s also assume that he pitches two additional seasons, declining by 15% each year as he ages. That projection would net him 12 wins and 147 strikeouts in 2026, and 10 wins and 125 strikeouts in 2027.
These additions would raise his career totals thus:
• 120 wins, placing him inside the top 500 (tied for 447th), ahead of such Hall of Famers as Ray Brown, Andy Cooper, and Rollie Fingers.
• 2,111 strikeouts, placing him 89th in MLB history, and making him one of just 90 players to surpass 2,000 career punchouts.
If deGrom can continue at his current pace, the added counting stats could jettison him into the Hall of Fame and a spot in the top 20. Even with modest production, he still has a clear path toward cracking the top 30 all-time starters.
Let’s not to take deGrom’s resurgence for granted. With a bit of luck and his overwhelming talent, the ace has a real chance to continue his rise through the ranks of MLB greats.
Allen Settle is an MLB writer who has never given up on his passion for the beautiful game of baseball. He is an IBWAA member who has worked as a contributor for the FanSided network, covering both the New York Mets and the Miami Marlins. Currently, Allen covers baseball prospects at prospects1500.com and is a general MLB writer at YardBarker.
Extra Innings
. . . Jacob deGrom at this writing is the leader among active pitchers in fielding-independent pitching (kind of your ERA when your defenses behind you are removed from the equation—at 2.62.
. . . DeGrom also leads both active pitchers and all major league pitchers with his 5.37 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
. . . DeGrom’s 0.987 WHIP at this writing is first among active pitchers and second all-time only to Hall of Famer Addie Joss (0.967).
. . . DeGrom lifetime has pitched with only 3.8 runs worth of support—0.4 below the major league average for his career to date.
Last Licks
For as long as you’ve been a baseball fan, you’ve been inundated with the message that a pitcher—or at least a starting pitcher—is his win total . . . somehow, the pitcher had to will his teammates to score more runs while he was in the game while simultanously exhorting his relievers to pitch well after his departure.
This line of thinking, of course, is dumber than a sack of hair. In baseball, team victories matter, but the idea of a single player earning full credit for a win or blame for a loss exposes a deep ignorance of how the game actually plays out on the field. If you’ve ever watched an actual game of baseball, you know that the sport doesn’t function this way: even a pitcher who throws a perfect game gets some help somewhere—from his defense, from his catcher, and of course from the offense that scored at least one run so he didn’t have to go out and pitch the tenth inning . . .
—Keith Law, in Smart Baseball. (2016.)
No qualifying pitcher had a better ERA in 2018 than deGrom’s 1.70 mark.* It was the best in baseball by 0.19 points, and the best in the NL by 0.67. In fact, it was the sixth lowest among qualifying pitchers since the league lowered the mound to its current height in 1969. Furthermore, his 217 innings pitched were the second-most in baseball. He set records for consecutive quality starts and consecutive starts allowing three or fewer runs.
And he went 10-9.
Jacob deGrom’s issue wasn’t that he didn’t know how to win. It was that he didn’t know how to not be on the 2018 New York Mets. They put up 3.57 runs per deGrom start, the third-lowest support average for any qualified pitcher that season. In the end, deGrom, owner of the league’s best ERA (1.70), finished 2018 with the same number of wins as the White Sox’s Lucas Giolito, owner of the league’s worst ERA (6.13). As the great Jayson Stark wrote of deGrom’s Cy Young case in The Athletic late in the season, “So are you still asking why we’re ignoring wins? It’s obvious, isn’t it? Because there isn’t a single entry on the stat sheet that tells us less about how this man pitched than the entry that most people used to check first. That’s why.”
—Anthony Castrovince, in A Fan’s Guide to Baseball Analytics. (2020.)
* Also in 2018, Jacob deGrom posted a major league-leading 1.98 fielding-independent pitching rate.—Ed.
Know Your Editors
HERE’S THE PITCH is published daily except Sundays and holidays. Benjamin Chase [gopherben@gmail.com] handles the Monday issue with Dan Freedman [dfreedman@lionsgate.com] editing Tuesday and Jeff Kallman [easyace1955@outlook.com] at the helm Wednesday and Thursday. Original editor Dan Schlossberg [ballauthor@gmail.com], does the weekend editions on Friday and Saturday. Former editor Elizabeth Muratore [nymfan97@gmail.com] is now co-director [with Benjamin Chase and Jonathan Becker] of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America, which publishes this newsletter and the annual ACTA book of the same name. Readers are encouraged to contribute comments, articles, and letters to the editor. HtP reserves the right to edit for brevity, clarity, and good taste.