Is Craig Kimbrel Actually Bad Now? Or Just Unlucky?
Today, we look at the bumpy 2022 season of newly minted Dodgers closer Craig Kimbrel and how not all of his outward struggles might actually be his fault.
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Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
. . . Craig Kimbrel currently has 394 career saves, which makes him the active saves leader and seventh on the all-time saves list. Former Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen is next on the active saves list with 382, which ranks ninth all-time. Kimbrel is also the Braves all-time saves leader with 186 while with Atlanta — John Smoltz ranks second on that list with 154.
In order to save 258 more games and tie Mariano Rivera for the all-time saves record, the 34-year-old Kimbrel would have to average around 32 saves per year (he has 22 saves so far in 2022) for eight more seasons until he is 42.
. . . Kimbrel is one of 12 relievers to win the Rookie of the Year award, which he did in 2011 with the Braves. Since then, only one relief pitcher has won the Rookie of the Year in either the American or National League, which was Devin Williams with the Brewers in 2020. The first relief pitcher to win the Rookie of the Year was Joe Black with the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1952 — he appeared in 56 games (just two starts) and pitched to a 15-4 record with a 2.15 ERA and a 1.005 WHIP.
Leading Off
Unpacking Craig Kimbrel’s Uneven 2022 Season
By Jeremy Dorn
(All stats entering play on Tuesday)
You would be forgiven for thinking Los Angeles Dodgers closer Craig Kimbrel is washed. The 34-year-old might well be on his way to Cooperstown for his work amassing nearly 400 career saves, but 2022 has proven a difficult one for Kimbrel.
The Dodgers traded outfielder AJ Pollock to the Chicago White Sox in a one-for-one deal to acquire Kimbrel shortly before the season. At worst, Kimbrel was thought to be a lateral move for departed franchise saves leader Kenley Jansen, who signed with Atlanta.
More than 45 innings (over 50 appearances) later, and Kimbrel’s bloated 3.97 ERA and 1.43 WHIP are turning Dodgers fans against him. More worrisome for Kimbrel, manager Dave Roberts has publicly discussed using other relief options in save situations down the stretch and in the postseason. In fact, since Kimbrel recorded his 21st save of the year on Aug. 17 against the Milwaukee Brewers, the Dodgers have had three games in which there was a save opportunity -- and all three of those were successfully converted by Evan Phillips, Chris Martin, and Jake Reed.
Kimbrel has still gotten the lion’s share of work in the ninth inning this year, save situation or not. But, with Blake Treinen now off the injured list, there may be a natural transition if Kimbrel continues to walk a tightrope in high-leverage situations. Regardless of who ends up closing the Dodgers’ most important games in October, one question continues to haunt when perusing Kimbrel’s season statistics: is he really this bad? Or is he unlucky?
Bear with me here. The number that keeps popping out on Kimbrel’s Baseball Reference page is his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which basically measures a pitcher’s true effectiveness by taking plays that would involve the defense trying to field the ball out of the equation. In other words, FIP shows how well a pitcher prevents homers, hit-by-pitches, and walks, and how well he induces strikeouts.
Kimbrel’s 2022 FIP is 2.50. That … is good! Part of that good number comes from playing in Dodger Stadium, which is traditionally a great pitcher’s park. But it is also notable that Kimbrel has suffered from an absurdly high Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) -- a mark that currently stands at .357.
We hear a lot about batters with a high BABIP, which often means they are either hitting the ball extremely hard, getting very lucky with where said balls are being hit, or some combination of both. When NL MVP favorite Paul Goldschmidt has a .372 BABIP, which is also very high, you probably don’t bat an eye. Goldschmidt has been an elite hitter for years, and .372 wouldn’t even be the highest BABIP he finished a season with (.382 in 2015). He also hits the tar out of the ball, as evidenced by being in at least the 82nd percentile for average and max exit velocity and hard-hit percentage.
However, when Kimbrel’s teammate Gavin Lux has a .355 BABIP (good for sixth in baseball), but isn’t even in the top 50 percent of hitters for average and max exit velocity or hard-hit percentage, it’s pretty fair to assume his breakout season is being at least partially buoyed by good luck. The reverse is true for pitchers, like Kimbrel.
Kimbrel’s .357 BABIP means he is probably getting unlucky more often than usual. He also currently sports a 67 percent Left On-Base Percentage (LOB%), which FanGraphs defines as both “poor,” and a likely sign that he will regress to the mean (about 72 percent). This means that Kimbrel has a slightly inflated ERA that will likely drop when he strands more runners in the future (and, therefore, regresses to that LOB% mean).
All of this is to say that, yes, Kimbrel has had his fair share of bad luck in 2022. All of this is not to say that Kimbrel is pitching as well as he has in the past. He is still allowing a lot of hard contact. He is getting barreled up more than usual. He isn’t inducing as many chases, nor keeping his walk rate low enough for a closer. His strikeout rate is more than 10 percent below his career mark. Those are all factors that have led to his unsightly traditional metrics this year.
Simply put, Kimbrel is not as capable of blowing his fastball by hitters as he is used to. His curveball, while still generally effective, is also not surprising hitters as much as it has over his career. The combination, when utilized correctly, is still a devastating weapon for a guy who has a strong Hall of Fame case. But, the decline in his only two pitches, coupled with some bad luck, has made for a headache of a 2022 season.
It’s hard to answer the question this piece’s title begs, and not just because baseball is a cruel and impossible sport. Most likely, the answer is yes to both questions. Kimbrel is worse than he has been for most of his career. He is also unluckier than usual. And for a team like the Dodgers with other proven closing options and title-or-bust expectations, Kimbrel may be best used as a bridge to Treinen in the playoffs.
Jeremy Dorn is an avid Dodgers fan living in Asheville, NC. He is a former Featured Writer at Bleacher Report, FanRag Sports, and more. He has two personal baseball blogs ("Born on the By You" and "Bum Baseball") and is a co-host of the Bros, Balls & Bourbon podcast. Follow him on Twitter @Jamblinman.