Tigers Trust Upcoming MLB Draft Will Help
PLUS: WILL LAS VEGAS PIXIE DUST RUB OFF ON TRANSPLANTED A'S?
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Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
An ill-prepared Bob Costas made numerous factual errors in his TBS telecast of the Braves-Phillies game Tuesday, incorrectly repeating Ronald Acuna, Jr. was leading the majors in stolen bases (actually only the National League) and that Atlanta had just completed a series at Colorado (that just-completed, four-game series was actually in Truist Park) . . .
First baseman Joey Votto, the 39-year-old elder statesman on the Cincinnati roster, returned to the team this week and homered in his return 10 months after Aug. 19 left-shoulder surgery that repaired his torn rotator cuff and biceps . . .
Josh Donaldson, the oft-injured Yankees third baseman, says he might retire after this season . . .
An ordinary bag of Cracker Jack costs $16 in San Diego, where the disappointing Padres are apparently asking fans to foot the bill for the signings of Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis, Jr. & Company . . .
Don’t look now, but the major-league RBI leader when the week began was switch-hitting Atlanta second baseman Ozzie Albies, shortest player in the National League …
Bidding for another All-Star start, Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan started the season 10-1 with a 2.18 earned run average . . .
Arizona made the right move shifting Ketel Marte back to second so that blue-chip rookie Corbin Carroll could find playing time in the outfield . . .
I bet Ted Williams would absolutely refuse to wear those ridiculous yellow Red Sox uniforms.
Leading Off
Detroit Tigers: Recent Draft History
By Joe Underhill
Across Major League Baseball, teams are preparing for the annual amateur player draft scheduled for July 9-11.
The Detroit Tigers have a new voice calling the shots this year but it seems like a good time to revisit the recent draft history of the Tigers and evaluate how well the team has done in evaluating and developing talent.
When evaluating a draft class, it is important to remember that players take varying amounts of time to reach the majors. Those timelines are impacted by a number of factors including, talent, age, competition level, position, make up, and cultural assimilation. The top players drafted in this year’s class will probably still be in the minors in 2025 and many won’t make their debuts until 2026 or later.
Teams have gotten increasingly good at evaluating early-round prospects since the amount of data now available has made it easier for teams to have confidence with their early-round picks.
Using the 2013 class as an example, 32 of the 39 players drafted in the first round and the first compensation round made it to the majors a success rate of 82% with those players currently accounting for a total of 165.5 WAR. Jump to round 10 and only 11 of the 30 players selected in round 10 have played a game in the majors with a collective WAR of 16.9.
At least three full seasons are usually required after players are drafted — and that’s especially true now that the draft has been moved to so late in the summer.
Let’s begin begin our examination with the 2019 class and look at the previous five years to see the impact drafting has had on the current Tigers roster.
2019
This class, headlined by Riley Greene (1-5), who looks the part of an above-average, probably All-Star level player if he can stay healthy. He’s lost parts of the past two seasons due to injuries.
After a cold start, Greene was slashing .365/.435/.573 with his power beginning to show up in games (13 extra-base hits in 25 games). The other player turning heads in that class is fellow outfielder Kerry Carpenter (19-562) who in 64 big-league games has hit .265 with 12 home runs.
There are still a number of players with the potential to make and impact a major- league roster, such as Andre Lipcius (3-83), Ryan Kreidler (4-112), Brendan White (26-772) and Beau Brieske (27-802).
2018
The Tigers carried the first overall pick in this draft and selected RHP Casey Mize (1-1), who has been okay but is on the IL. Whether he can be the ace of the staff is still in question.
The best pick in the ‘18 class was ninth-rounder Tarik Skubal (9-255), who rocketed up the rankings following his professional debut. Unfortunately, Skubal is also on the IL again, leaving his future a little murky while we wait to see how he recovers.
Gerrett Hill (26-765) is the other pitcher from that class to have made the majors and it looks like he might be able to carve out a useful role as a spot starter/long relief option. Offensively the only player to make it to the majors from the class is Kody Clemens (3-79) (since traded to the Phils). Outside of the players who have made it, already there is still hope for Parker Meadows (2-44) and Adam Wolf (5-135), but otherwise the Class of 2018 looks weak.
2017
As seems to be often the case with the Tigers, RHP Alex Faedo (1-18) was the Tigers first round pick. This is the first draft under GM Al Avila and it was not a good one. In addition to Faedo, only two other players have tasted the major leagues. Will Vest (12-365) is showing to a useful bullpen arm and Drew Carlton (32-965) is looking solid.
2016
This was a more successful draft for the Tigers, beginning with (shockingly) a pitcher, Matt Manning, at 9th overall. Overall, the Tigers have had 21% of their picks make the majors, with Manning and John Schreiber (15-445) being the most successful. The Tigers lost their 2nd and 3rd round picks due to signing players. While they have put a number of players to the Majors, so far the Tigers have not seen significant impact from this draft class, particularly due to players missing time/careers ending due to injury. This draft is pretty well-completed in terms of players reaching the majors.
2015
Tigers put nine players from their draft class of 2015 into the majors, yet those players have accumulated a WAR of -2.2. As that number illustrates the Tiges have not gotten much in usefulness from this draft. Their only player of note is third-round pick Tyler Alexander, who has been an effective bullpen and spot starter for the Tigers.
When evaluating the Tigers’ drafts, two things become clear. First, the team has had a preference for drafting pitchers with early-rounds picks. Second, all of the late-round success the Tigers have had in developing players has come from the pitching department.
Seeing these two patterns, it is not shocking that the current Tigers have one of the worst offensive teams in the Majors. While it is to early to fully evaluate the past few drafts, there has been a shift to drafting more position players early in the draft, where there is a higher probability of finding players who will be successful in the big leagues.
Joe Underhill is a high school administrator and diehard fan of both baseball and the city of Detroit. Joe currently writes for www.tigstown.com. You can follow Joe on Twitter@TransplantedDet or contact him directly at joe.underhill@auburn.org.
Cleaning Up
Can Glitter of Las Vegas Rescue Moribund Oakland Franchise?
By Dan Schlossberg
It’s just a formality now.
The move of the Oakland Athletics to Las Vegas just needs one thing: approval by a majority of the 29 other clubs in Major League Baseball.
Gov. Joe Lombardo has signed a $380 million stadium bill passed by the state legislature, while Commissioner Rob Manfred is already on record stating he will not block the troubled franchise from relocating.
When it happens, the A’s would be the first franchise with four different homes. A charter member of the American League in 1901, when Philadelphia was its home, the team later represented Kansas City, from 1955-67, and Oakland, starting in 1968.
In a prepared statement, the team announced, "We thank the members of the Nevada State Legislature and their staff for their hard work, due diligence, and attention to detail as we work to bring the Athletics to Las Vegas. We are especially grateful for the legislators' time and dedication to shepherding this bill through the process, including the special session."
Amendments added to the original bill, according to the Nevada Independent, require the club to commit at least $2 million per annum for community needs plus aid in scholarship funding and workforce development, in concert with the Nevada System of High Education.
Securing a stadium will dictate the timing of the move. At the moment, the only available ballpark is occupied by the Las Vegas Aviators, Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate. That team is expected to stay in the area even after the major-league franchise joins them.
According to Athletics team president Dave Kaval, the team would break ground on a billion-dollar ballpark in 2024 and open it three years later. Location would be on the famed Las Vegas Strip.
The nickname, unlike the team’s location, won’t change. Though sometimes shortened to A’s, the Athletics were also called White Elephants early in their history after opponents ridiculed the club. Connie Mack, who served as both owner and manager, even adorned his team’s uniforms with large white elephants.
By the time the team was winning three straight World Series under the ownership of Charlie Finley in the ‘70s, the primary colors were green and gold. It remains to be seen whether that motif makes it to Las Vegas.
“We’ve had success in multiple markets, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Oakland, and so the brand and the name are very powerful and one that we want to retain and move forward with,” said Kaval. “We have an incredible heritage.”
The 122-year-old franchise hit hard times in recent seasons by trading veteran stars for prospects, paring payroll, and allowing its playing facility to fall into disrepair. Attendance sagged in direct proportion to the standings, with this year’s team expected to lose well over 100 games and finish with the worst record in the majors.
If the team becomes a lame duck because all details of the franchise shift are not completed in time for next season, attendance could plunge even lower.
On the other hand, Kaval believes some of the glitter of the gambling mecca will rub off on its first major-league team.
The combination of the newest ballpark in the big leagues plus the attraction of attendance rising with the novelty of big-league baseball, is virtually certain to allow expansion of the payroll, currently last among the 30 teams at $56,895,000.
In addition, he said the A’s will follow their long-established tradition of luring fans with promotions and special events.
“Baseball has always been about promotions, especially the A’s going back to Charlie Finley,” Kaval said. Finley owned the Athletics before selling the club to Walter A. Haas Jr., then chairman of Levi Strauss & Co., for $12.7 million in 1980.
“He tried everything from the orange baseball to the mule (Charlie O) he used to ride around on, so we’re going to continue the tradition of promotions.”
Talk of a franchise shift has shrouded the Oakland franchise for years. Several California sites, including San Jose, had been considered but rejected for various reasons. In the meantime, the cross-bay San Francisco Giants have been consistently better in terms of winning games, promoting their product, and maintaining their stadium.
Timeless Trivia
“My end goal for my career is to be a Hall of Famer. But it’s not just that. I want the people where I am to love me, and I want to love them back.”
— Rookie Cincinnati shortstop Elly de la Cruz
Despite two felony convictions, the late Yankees owner George Steinbrenner was a member of the board of directors at the Baseball Hall of Fame, which needs to find room in its gallery not only for him but for fellow influential owners Charlie Finley and Ted Turner . . .
Entering this season, Mets co-ace Justin Verlander needed three 17-win seasons just to come within five wins of his stated goal of 300. With two wins through mid-June, the 40-year-old doesn’t look like he’ll even come close . . .
With 20-game winners almost as extinct as the do-do bird, it’s worth noting that Warren Spahn had 13 seasons of 20 wins or more . . .
Astros radio voice Robert Ford is amazed by his own good fortune: he’s called 96 major-league playoff games . . .
Atlanta right-hander Bryce Elder, who started the year in the minors but received a quick promotion when injuries struck the varsity rotation, leads both leagues in earned run average on the road — and reduced it even further with seven scoreless frames in Philadelphia Thursday.
Know Your Editors
HERE’S THE PITCH is published daily except Sundays and holidays. Benjamin Chase [gopherben@gmail.com] handles Monday and Tuesday editions, Elizabeth Muratore [nymfan97@gmail.com] does Wednesday and Thursday, and Dan Schlossberg [ballauthor@gmail.com] edits the weekend editions on Friday and Saturday. Readers are encouraged to contribute comments, articles, and letters to the editor. HTP reserves the right to edit for brevity, clarity, and good taste.