Examining Early-Season Success
ALSO: AARON JUDGE REVERSES STANCE, ACCEPTS TEAM USA OFFER TO BE CAPTAIN
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Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
Hard to believe that erstwhile Toronto sluggers Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. went 0-for-the-season in home runs through the first 17 games of 2025 . . .
Guerrero finally hit No. 1 Wednesday, turning around a Spencer Strider fastball . . .
That 16-0 Cubs win last weekend was not only the first L.A. home defeat of the season but also the biggest run differential defeat in Dodgers history . . .
Jack-of-all-trades Miguel Rojas pitched the final two innings, yielding the final five Chicago runs, in the fifth pitching appearance of his career . . .
Closer Raisel Iglesias is off to a bad start in the “walk” year of his contract as he yielded three ninth-inning home runs in Atlanta’s first 14 games . . .
Even with ace Spencer Strider back, the Braves still need another solid starter . . .
Paul Goldschmidt has apparently found the Fountain of Youth with the Yankees.
Matt Olson’s batting average would look much better if it were an earned run average.
Leading Off
Should We Trust These Two Hot Starts?
By Nate Kosher
At the start of every fantasy baseball season, there are unexpected names who jump out to fast starts. Being able to correctly identify the true breakthroughs from the hot starts that sputter out after April can lead to fantasy success.
Successful managers need to be able to sift through the hype and noise of the first few weeks of the season and balance the necessary risk/reward elements of their roster decisions.
So where does that leave us with two of this year’s early-season standouts? Let’s dig in and take a closer look at Kyren Paris and Ben Rice.
Kyren Paris
Kyren Paris was originally drafted 55th overall by the Angels in 2019. The 5’11” 180-pound Paris rose as high as No. 4 in LA’s prospect rankings and profiled as an athletic middle infielder with a nice speed/power combination from a fantasy perspective.
He first cracked the majors in 2023, hitting .100 in 15 games. He followed that up with 21 games at the big league level in 2024, finishing with a .118/.224/.216 slashline and 17 strikeouts in 51 at-bats. But he made the Angels’ Opening Day roster this year despite the limited success in 2024.
Then the 2025 season started and Paris turned into 2006 Alfonso Soriano (Soriano had a monster fantasy season for a forgettable Nationals team that year with 46 home runs, 41 doubles, and 41 steals).
Paris reeled off five home runs, eight RBIs, and four steals in the Angels’ first 10 games, including two home runs against the Rays on April 9. Overall, he hit safely in 10 of the Angels’ first 14 games and was hitting .368/.458/.805 with five home runs, eight RBI, and five steals as of April 15.
He was also leading all of MLB in slugging percentage and WAR (1.5) and ranked safely near the top of fantasy leader-boards, alongside such expected stars as Aaron Judge and Corbin Carroll.
So where did this come from? After his struggles last season, Paris worked to retool his game in the off-season. A recent MLB.com article nicely details the mechanical changes to Paris’ game.
He implemented major changes to his swing, changing his footwork and how he shifts his weight during his follow through. He also tweaked his batting stance by opening up and moving much farther back in the batter's box.
These changes have led to big numbers and the highlights have been fun to watch, but the question is: can Paris keep that going all season?
On the one hand, it does seem that Paris has made substantial improvements that will pay off both in real life and in fantasy baseball. He likely won’t be as bad as his numbers were in 2023 and 2024, and he probably won’t be as good as he has been thus far in 2025 (not to mention as good as 2006 Soriano).
This is admittedly a wide margin of potential outcomes, but I for one am hesitant to go all in on Paris after looking at a larger sample size of his career.
He never hit for a high average in the minors, compiling a lifetime average of .237 over parts of five minor-league seasons. In addition, strikeouts have been a consistent thorn in Paris’ side. He had 134 in 105 games in 2022 and 151 in 113 games in 2023. In the majors, his K% was 37% in 2024, 28.8% in 2023, and is currently sitting at 21.7%. His BB% has remained steady around 10%.
My advice would be to sell high on Paris and see what you can get in return, before he falls back to Earth.
Ben Rice
Rice is another player who’s swinging a hot bat in this early 2025 season. Through 16 games, he was slashing .273/.385/.618 with five home runs and seven RBIs.
In 2025, he has started the majority of his games at DH for New York, with two additional starts at first base. Rice actually came up through the minors playing first base and catcher, but only logged one game at catcher in 2024, so he unfortunately does not hold catcher eligibility anymore.
What Rice does have going for him is lineup placement in a great offense. After tinkering with a few different leadoff options, Aaron Boone seems content slotting Rice in as a second leadoff option behind Paul Goldschmidt. Hitting atop the Yankees’ powerful lineup gives Rice a leg up in opportunity, with more at-bats, and more potential runs scored. Rice could also provide a boost in OBP leagues with a career .399 mark in the minors.
The advanced metrics show just how locked in Rice has been to start the season. He is hitting the ball extremely hard and is ranked in the top 10% of MLB in Exit Velocity (95.0) and Max EV (113.2). Rice is fourth in all of baseball in HardHit% (62.5) and Brls/PA% (15.4). He’s done this while also cutting his K% from 27.0 in 2024 to 23.1% this season.
Exploring Rice’s minor-league numbers indicates that what he is doing is more sustainable for the whole season, making him a better long-term play than Paris.
Rice produced a career slashline of .282/.399/.536 in the minors and exhibited better plate discipline. In 80 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season, he struck out a total of 72 times while walking 57 times. A better eye at the plate gives him a higher floor and less margin for error when compared to Paris.
Another variable for Rice is the potential for him to regain catcher eligibility. If he ever fills in at catcher and can be rostered as a catcher again in fantasy, his value skyrockets.
For now, if he is already rostered in your league, I’d consider sending a trade offer for him. If he’s still available in your league, pick him up today!
Nate Kosher is a Twin Cities-based staff writer and podcaster for Pitcher List. He is the co-host of the Coffee Talk Podcast, which reviews rookies and prospects making an impact. Read more of Nate's writing by subscribing to his fantasy baseball Substack newsletter Runs Produced, which focuses on catchers. Follow him on Bluesky @natekosher.bsky.social or email him at koshernathaniel@gmail.com.
Cleaning Up
Aaron Judge Was Right to Reject Previous WBC Offer
By Dan Schlossberg
The sanctity of spring training will be tested again next March when the World Baseball Classic claims a ton of stars, disrupts the routines of all 30 clubs, and robs fans of a pre-season chance to check out their teams.
Assuming the WBC is a good idea — and I think it is nothing more than another revenue grab — it should not interfere with the exhibition game schedule.
Nothing should.
Now comes word that Aaron Judge, the towering Yankees slugger, has been named captain of Team USA by manager Mark DeRosa.
During the last incarnation of the WBC, Judge declined, stating he owed his allegiance to the New York Yankees (who, coincidentally, had just re-signed him to a massive contract extension).
He was absolutely right at that time, just as he is absolutely wrong now.
Major League Baseball is missing a golden opportunity by not moving the WBC to November, when the game enters a black hole between the end of the World Series and start of the winter meetings.
Teams would get a jump-start on ticket sales for the following season and baseball would usurp the headlines from the lesser sports of football, hockey, and basketball.
Rob Manfred needs to step up and speak out — and insist that the make-believe squads of the World Baseball Classic should wait til spring training and the regular season end before they even consider starting.
While Judge could probably hit a home run the second he rolls out of bed, pitchers are not ready for serious action, especially considering how hard most of them throw.
The usual spring training routine is an inning or two in their first game, then maybe three, then four or five. Almost nobody goes all the way in any of the 30 exhibition games.
Ramped up by the WBC’s pressure to produce, pitchers run the risk of severe, career-threatening injuries.
And so do players.
It wasn’t long ago that Mets closer Edwin Diaz missed a full season after injuring his patella tendon while celebrating Puerto Rico’s win on the mound.
And Mark Teixeira, a first baseman for the Yankees, was another who limped off the WBC field with an injury that interfered with his regular season.
If teams lose a half-dozen name players — as the top contenders might — they owe the fans substantial ticket discounts. Nobody wants to spend good money to watch Understudy City.
Major League Baseball should have learned its lesson with Replacement Players during a strike years ago. On the other hand, does MLB ever learn?
Retension of the ridiculous Manfred Man rule for extra innings suggests otherwise.
At least the WBC happens once every three years; it could be worse.
But the problem with breaking up 2026 spring training is the very real threat that an owners lockout will wipe out 2027 too.
If that happens, America’s National Pastime will never be the same.
HtP weekend editor Dan Schlossberg of Fair Lawn, NJ is national baseball writer for forbes.com, columnist for Sports Collectors Digest, and contributor to USA TODAY Sports Weekly, Memories & Dreams, and numerous other outlets. His email is ballauthor@gmail.com.
Extra Innings: 2025 Spring Training Attendance Takes Big Plunge; Cactus League Leads
Despite clouds of uncertainty hanging over the next two spring trainings, attendance fell from 2024 to 2025 even though exhibition season opened in February . . .
According to Ballpark Digest, which uses figures supplied by Major League Baseball, overall exhibition game attendance fell by 3 per cent — suggesting a down season . . .
The Mesa-based Chicago Cubs again finished first, averaging 12,847 fans per game, but that was down from 13,401 the previous spring . . .
For advocates of Arizona, the top five draws all played in the Cactus League: Arizona, the Athletics, San Francisco, and the world champion Los Angeles Dodgers followed the Cubs on the attendance list — even though the Dodgers took a significant hit (10,214 this year versus 14,712 in 2023) . . .
The four worst draws all came from the Grapefruit League, with Ballpark of the Palm Beaches partners Houston and Washington ranked last and next-to-last and the Jupiter-based Miami Marlins third from worst . . .
On the plus side, the Mets drew a record 106,027 to Clover Park, averaging 6,627 per game (16 dates) while those pesky Cubs set a single-game attendance record with 16,161 packing Sloan Park on March 8 for a game against the Seattle Mariners . . .
Next year’s spring training faces serious competition from the World Baseball Classic, which not only presents a competing slate of games but also draws top stars from existing rosters . . .
The potential problem for 2027 spring training is the expiration of the Basic Agreement between owners and players — and a likely lockout that could last well into the regular season.
Know Your Editors
HERE’S THE PITCH is published daily except Sundays and holidays. Benjamin Chase [gopherben@gmail.com] handles the Monday issue with Dan Freedman [dfreedman@lionsgate.com] editing Tuesday and Jeff Kallman [easyace1955@outlook.com] at the helm Wednesday and Thursday. Original editor Dan Schlossberg [ballauthor@gmail.com], does the weekend editions on Friday and Saturday. Former editor Elizabeth Muratore [nymfan97@gmail.com] is now co-director [with Benjamin Chase and Jonathan Becker] of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America, which publishes this newsletter and the annual ACTA book of the same name. Readers are encouraged to contribute comments, articles, and letters to the editor. HtP reserves the right to edit for brevity, clarity, and good taste.