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Readers React
“One negative about expanded playoffs is trying to keep up with the standings. First you look at division leaders, then you look at the wild-card contenders, then you look at possible match-ups and seedings. It becomes harder to follow the whole tournament, especially early on. Smaller post-season are easier to understand and follow.”
— Brian G, Mt. Sinai, NY
“Could not agree with you more.
— Jeff Cohen, Wantagh, NY
[Editor’s Note: Expanded playoffs are baseball’s biggest money-grab since team expansion. Owners don’t seem to care about the best teams missing the final round.]
Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
The Dodgers' 1-2 hitters were far from a 1-2 punch in their three-game sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks. Betts went 0-for-11 with a walk. Freeman was 0-for-10 with two walks. They combined to score two runs, when Betts and Freeman walked ahead of Will Smith's two-run triple in Game 1 –- after the Dodgers were already down 11-0.
Before Arizona knocked him out in the first inning of NLDS Game 1, Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw had been 14-1 with a 1.80 ERA against the D’backs . . .
Opposing pitcher Merrill Kelly, who beat him, was 0-11 with a 5.49 ERA in 16 starts against the Dodgers.
Before they lost a 3-0 verdict to the Phillies at Truist Park in the NLDS opener Tuesday, the Braves had not been blanked at home in more than two years.
Mighty mite Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros has hit a record eight home runs in openers of playoff series . . .
When the 5’6” tall second baseman homered against 6’9” tall Twins starter Bailey Ober, it was the biggest hitter/pitcher differential in baseball history . . .
General manager Kim Ng is due an extension and huge raise after completing the final season of her three-year deal with the Marlins, a surprise playoff team.
Leading Off
Detroit Tigers: Off-season Preview
By Joe Underhill
The 2023 season is in the books and, like it or not, it feels a whole lot like it did at the end of the 2021 season.
The Detroit Tigers showed improvement throughout the year, heck they even finished with a winning road record and second place in the division.
In 2021, the Tigers finished 77-85 with 687 (4.30) runs scored and 756 (4.66) runs allowed. In 2023, they finished 78-84 with 661 (4.08) runs scored and 740 (4.56) runs allowed.
In both seasons, the Tigers posted a winning record in the month of September, which leaves fans feeling optimistic going into the off-season, “maybe we are just a move or two away…”
Well 2022 was not the continued step forward, as the Tigers stumbled back to a 66-96 record and cost GM Al Avila his job.
After the 2021 season, Avila swung for the fences, signing Eduardo Rodriguez, Javier Baez, Andrew Chafin, and Michael Pineda as free agents and trading for Tucker Barnhart.
Rodriguez has been excellent when he’s been on the field (which he wasn’t on much in 2022). Chafin and Pineda were fine. Barnhart and Baez, well…that didn’t and hasn’t gone well…Barnhart hit a whopping 11 extra-base hits with an OPS+ of 61 and a slug lower than his OBP.
Baez is the disaster that keeps going; 2022 was rough, OPS+ of 91, and 2023 was worse, OPS+ of just 62. With four years left on his contract, the Tigers are hoping they can find a way to get him back on track.
Let’s take a closer look at the roster and evaluate the performance this season and what that could mean for the Tigers this off-season and in 2024.
Outfield
Matt Vierling, Akil Baddoo, Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, Zach McKinstry, Parker Meadows, Jake Marisnick, Eric Haase, and Andy Ibanez all logged over 21 games in the outfield in 2023. This will is a position group that saw a significant amount of growth throughout the year, and will be a really fierce battle come spring training in 2024. Positional grade B
Parker Meadows made his debut, and his defense was as advertised earning 3 Rdrs in only 36 games in center. Meadows’s arrival pushed Riley Greene to the corners, a move he has embraced. Kerry Carpenter became arguably the best hitter for the Tigers posting in OPS+ of 120 for the season, the question had been his defense, but he posted a Rdrs of 1 for the year, so he’s not a liability in the outfield. However, he will probably have increased number of at-bats from the DH position.
Greene, Meadows and Carpenter look to be lineup locks in one position or another. The other outfield spot will get interesting, since Viering was playing excellent outfield when he got shifted to third base (part of the cascade from Meadows’s promotion).
He held his own there and will manager AJ Hinch’s preference for moving guys around to find favorable matchups, the versatility is a plus.
Akil Baddoo put together a solid defensive year but is still working to find some offensive consistency. Baddoo stole 14 bags to go along with 11 home runs in 312 at- bats, so the potential is there for a solid power/speed corner OF.
The other two players who logged time and will be part of the Tigers spring training in 2024 are Zach McKinstry and Andy Ibanez. McKinstry is a jack of all trades playing above-average defense at six positions. Ibanez logged the majority of his games at second base (more on that later) but has been solid defensively while putting together a season with an OPS+ of 102. The versatility of McKinstry and Ibanez will likely result in them having spots (pardon the pun) on the 2024 Tigers.
Infield
Spencer Torkelson, Tyler Nevin, Andy Ibanez, Zach McKinstry, Nick Maton, Jonathan Schoop, Zack Short, Matt Vierling, Javier Baez, Andre Lipcius, and Ryan Kreidler. Positional grade C+
There are some things to be really encouraged about in this group. Starting with Torkelson, who after a rough start, turned his year around, ending with 31 home runs and an OPS+ of 105.
Tork was a far better hitter on the road in 2023 and that is one area that needs to improve. The biggest challenge for Tork going into 2024 might be improving his defense.
The eye test says he’s okay there but the numbers say he’s one of the worst at fielding his position. There are several interesting bats coming up that need to find places to play and while his bat will keep him in the lineup, his defense could have him spending time at DH.
A lot of ink, both virtual and print, has been spent on Javier Baez’ struggles. He put together arguably the worst season of his career but is still an above-average defender, though even that slipped a bit in 2023.
Baez can opt out of the last four years and $98 million on his contract, but he is unlikely to see an offer like that on the market if he were to opt out.
The Tigers have said helping Baez figure out how to break out of his slump is an organizational priority. For the time being, he’ll be the shortstop, but it’s worth remembering that Ryan Kreidler made the team out of spring training and just never fully made back. The Tigers also have Eddys Leonard at AAA, where he hit .302 with solid defense in 40 games.
Second and third base will have a significant amount of competition in spring training. Viering is an option at third and Ibanez will come to camp as the incumbent at second.
However, the Tigers are going to give Colt Keith and Justin Henry-Malloy every opportunity to make the roster. The Tigers have shifted Jace Jung to third in the hopes that he can lock down that position while Keith moves to second full time. There are scouts who think Keith’s best position might be first base, but that is currently occupied. It would not be surprising to see the Tigers make a trade here to clear up the log jam.
Catcher
Jake Rogres, Eric Haase, Carson Kelly. Positional grade B-
Rogers seems to be settling into the type of catcher the Tigers were expecting, producing a career-best 21 home runs to go along with excellent defense behind the plate. The Tigers began the year with Haase as the back-up catcher, but when Kelly was placed on waivers, he was cut in favor of the former Diamondback. For Haase, 2023 is a season he’d like to forget, as his power and contact number disappeared. Kelly proved to be a strong defender and game-caller but produced next to nothing offensively. This will be an area to expect some off-season action.
Bullpen
Andrew Vasquez, Zach Logue, Miguel Diaz, Garrett Hill, Try Wingenter, Beau Brieske, Brendan White, Chasen Shreve, Tyler Alexander, Will Vest, Mason Englert, Jose Cisnero, Alex Lange, Jason Foley, Tyler Holton, Joey Wentz. Positional grade C
The Tigers received solid production in 2023 from their bullpen, logging the fifth- most innings in the major leagues. Every year, constructing a bullpen is a matter of luck in addition to refining roles and arsenals.
For the Tigers, four pitchers established themselves as high-leverage options for Hinch in 2024. Lange served as the closer,saving 26 of 32 games. Walks continue to be a challenge but his curve is lethal. Foley had the second-most saves on the team and as soon as he figures out how to deal with left-handed hitters, he’ll become one of the most elite relievers in the game. Will Vest hit a rough spot, but otherwise pitched exceptionally well. Tyler Holton was an exceptional rookie left-hander who ultimately paced the Tigers bullpen in innings pitched and ERA.
Expect under-the-radar signings to boost the competition along with the young starter/bullpen arms the Tigers have amassed in the upper minors and at the MLB level.
Starting Pitching
Eduardo Rodriquez, Joey Wentz, Michael Lorenzen (traded), Reese Olson, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, Matthew Boyd, Alex Faedo, Spencer Turnbull, Sawyer Gipson-Long. Positional grade B+
Small sample size warning: Gipson-Long and Olson look like they could be fighting for a spot in the Tigers rotation next year. In his 20 innings of work, Gipson-Long struck out over 31% of the batters faced.
Olson made 18 starts and threw over 103 innings for the Tigers, mixing in some dominant starts and, like Gipson-Long, placed himself firmly in the competition for a rotation spot. Lorenzen is on this list simply to illustrate the work that has been done by the development staff of the Tigers, Lorenzen pitched well for the Tigers, and even though he was traded to Philadelphia at the deadline, he still pitched the second-most innings of any starter.
Coming off tendon flexor surgery, the Tigers were cautious with Skubal, but once the reins were released, he pitched like a Cy Young candidate. He struck out almost 33% of the hitters he faced with a ground-ball rate of 51.6% and a WHIP of 0.896. In a little under a half-a-season of work, he still complied a WAR of 2.0. In Skubal, the Tigers have a front-line starter and a pitcher who is capable of matching any other starter in baseball.
The rest of the rotation was a mixed bag of youth and injuries. Boyd was lost for the season, Turnbull struggled with command and additional injuries coming off Tommy John surgery. Manning looked to be turning the corner and really rounding into a front-line type starter. However, Manning couldn’t avoid foot injuries, landing on the IL on two separate occasions for right foot injuries. Faedo and Wentz pitched both out of the bullpen as well as starting and will be in the middle of the competition for next season for roles to be determined.
Overall
The season felt like a step in the right direction for the whole organization under new President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris. The Tigers have built up their competition levels and will be an exciting team to watch come spring training. Overall team grade C+
Joe Underhill is a diehard baseball fan and fan of the city of Detroit. Joe currently writes for www.tigstown.com. You can follow Joe on Twitter @TransplantedDet.
Cleaning Up
Hey, MLB: Find a Way to Help Best Teams Reach World Series
By Dan Schlossberg
Atlanta, Baltimore, and Los Angeles all won more than 100 games this season but won’t be playing in the 2023 World Series.
Say what?
It’s been that way ever since Major League Baseball decided to copy the other sports in creating a post-season tournament that (1) has way too many teams and (2) rewards mediocrity.
Anything that compromises the integrity of the World Series — such as inter-league play, for example — is a bad idea and a stain on the game.
The playoffs themselves are another black mark.
Any team that gets hot late is rewarded while any team that suffers an injury late is penalized. That’s bad for baseball.
Since the team with the better record hosts all three games of the Wild Card Series, why not reward the team with the better record in the Division Series too? It should have four, rather than three, home games, with its rival reduced to one.
That would reduce the absurdity of a team with a vociferous fan base (that means you, Philadelphia) intimidating opponents so consistently that the home-field advantage is overbearing.
The Phillies finished 14 games out of first place in both of the last two years but already claimed one pennant with a chance for a second this season.
And it’s still ridiculous that the Miami Marlins won two world championships without ever finishing first in its division.
The playoff system has undergone a myriad of changes since it began in 1969. But that doesn’t mean baseball should quit tinkering until it gets the formula right.
Simply put, the wild-card winner is not a championship team. It is a team that got hot late, overcame mediocre opposition, and somehow prevailed against all odds.
But those odds need to be stacked a little higher.
It’s no wonder baseball has not had a repeat world champion since the 2000 Yankees and will probably never have a team like the 1953 Yankees, who won their fifth straight world championship that fall.
The still-active Houston Astros could topple Texas in the ALCS and reach the Fall Classic again but Dusty Baker’s boys are weaker than they were in 2022 and not likely to tie the yellow ribbon again.
And the Dodgers were denied even a single postseason win when the MVP twins, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, combined to go 1-for-21.
Ouch.
Let’s see whether the extra teams and extra games result in higher TV ratings this fall.
My guess is that fans will revolt by not watching or — God forbid — switching to football.
Former AP newsman Dan Schlossberg of Fair Lawn, NJ is the author of 41 baseball books and thousands of articles about the game. His email is ballauthor@gmail.com.
Timeless Trivia
“I have a media pass with my picture on it. Sometimes I get stopped at stadiums and have to explain who I used to be.”
— Baltimore broadcaster and Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Palmer
How important is slugging percentage? The 2023 Atlanta Braves slugged .501 — the best mark in baseball history — while half of the 30 teams in the majors didn’t have a single player slug .500 . . .
Minus the Coors Field factor and shortened seasons and there was no NL team in the modern era (1901-present) within 20 points of Atlanta’s .501 team slugging mark . . .
The last National League club that even reached .481 over a full season was the Chicago Cubs of Gabby Hartnett vintage (1938) . . .
This year’s Braves also scored more runs in the first inning than any other team scored in any inning . . .
Play eight years in the bigs and receive a lifetime gold pass good for two admissions to any ballpark. Umpires, scouts, executives, and team and league employees get it too, though not all of them use it.
Know Your Editors
HERE’S THE PITCH is published daily except Sundays and holidays. Benjamin Chase [gopherben@gmail.com] handles Monday and Tuesday editions, Elizabeth Muratore [nymfan97@gmail.com] does Wednesday and Thursday, and Dan Schlossberg [ballauthor@gmail.com] edits the weekend editions on Friday and Saturday. Readers are encouraged to contribute comments, articles, and letters to the editor. HTP reserves the right to edit for brevity, clarity, and good taste.