Nationals Stealing Their Way Up In NL East
PLUS: DAN SCHLOSSBERG'S PHANTOM HALL OF FAME BALLOT
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Reader Reacts
Here are more bad ideas from baseball. Some have been rejected, and others still go on:
Home field advantage to the All-Star Game winner
City connect jerseys
Ugly All Star Game jerseys
Bigger bases watering down stolen bases
In game interviews (Fox does it in the dugout, ESPN does it while the player is in the field on Sunday night)
Corporate logos on jerseys
— Brian Greenberg, Long Island, NY
Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
Before he leaves office in 2029, Commissioner Rob Manfred promises a realignment of baseball broadcasting outlets and a resolution of expansion issues . . .
Tampa Bay’s Tropicana Field fiasco could compromise plans for a new stadium in St. Petersburg and streamline plans for relocation to another city, with Montreal and Nashville leading the list of almost-but-not-quite venues . . .
The Bay Area has been ruled out as a two-team market but Vancouver, British Columbia would make a great partner for the Seattle Mariners . . .
Manfred also plans to oversee an overhaul of televised baseball, with potential new outlets ranging from CBS and NBC to Peacock and Prime streaming services . . .
The biggest potential obstacle faced by the baseball czar is a likely work stoppage (strike or lockout) after the 2026 season; owners and players get along as well as Republicans and Democrats.
Leading Off
2024 Nationals Led MLB in Steals, With Stolen Bases Back in Vogue
By Andrew Sharp
The 2024 Washington Nationals led both leagues in stolen bases (barely) and the number of times caught stealing (by a large margin). That resulted in a relatively low success rate of 75.3 percent, a full 10 percent worse than the Los Angeles Dodgers’ 85.5 percent, which led the majors.
Yet unlike the Dodgers, the Nats didn’t hit many home runs, so manager Dave Martinez felt his team had to run aggressively to increase its chances of scoring. The 2024 Nationals finished 29th out of the 30 MLB teams with just 135 homers.
“We’ve got to create different things,” Martinez told the media in September. “This year, stealing bases was very, very important for us…. We’ve had our flaws, but I think overall we’ve done a better job with that.”
It wasn’t just one or two players who helped Washington’s base stealing. The 2024 Nationals became the first team since the 1917 Pirates with 23 players who had at least one stolen base in a single season, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reported.
The aggressiveness came with a downside. The MLB average on successful steals this past season was 79 percent. The average number of runners picked off per team was 12. The Nationals had 29 runners picked off.
Team leader Jacob Young was picked off six times in addition to his 10 times caught stealing. He stole 33 bases. His success rate was 77.6 percent for the season, but after being successful in his first 12 attempts, Young’s percentage dropped to 67.7. That mirrored the team’s declining success rates, which was above 85 percent in late April.
Nationals’ runners were out in various ways on the bases (trying to stretch a hit, take an extra base or advance on a pitch in the dirt, for example) 54 times, other than being caught stealing or picked off. The league average for a team was 43.
Washington’s 223 steals was up from 127 stolen bases in 2023 and just 75 in 2022. The league-leading total also was a Nationals’ record.
Overall, teams stole stole 3,617 bases this past season, the third most in a season since the A.L. joined the N.L. as a major league, trailing only the deadball-era years of 1914 (4,574) and 1915 (4,108).
Clearly, the increase this season and in 2023 has been due in large part to the increase in the size of the bases and the limit on pickoff attempts and pitcher step-offs. Most steal attempts are bang-bang plays that often result in challenges, so shortening the distance by 4.5 inches makes a difference. But it still requires manager, coaches and runners to choose carefully the best time to try to steal. Some teams do it better than others, but all teams are doing a pretty good job by historical standards.
Aside from the Dodgers, who ranked in the top 10 with 136 steals, nine other teams were successful on more than 80 percent of their stolen-base attempts (three others were rounded up by MLB to an even 80 percent. The 2024 overall success rate was down a tick from 2023’s 80.1 percent, which was by far the best ever. The previous record was 75.7 percent in 2021, when nearly 1,300 fewer bases were stolen.
The Pirates were close behind the Dodgers (84.8 to L.A.’s 85.5 percent). The Brewers, second to the Nationals with 217 steals, were third at 83.8 percent.
Even Washington had a better success rate than five other teams. None of the teams with the lowest success rates made the playoffs. The Angels actually kept the woeful White Sox from finishing with the worst stolen-base success rate (73.2 percent for Chicago topping 72.7 for Los Angeles.)
An anomaly: Ronald Acuna Jr.’s season-ending injury decimated the Braves’ stolen-base total. Atlanta as a team in 2024 stole fewer bases (62) than Acuna alone in 2023 (73).
The change toward more base-stealing is a dramatic reversal from the Moneyball and sabermetric-inspired fear of losing an out. In 2002, the Athletics’ Billy Beane told ESPN that if a team doesn’t attempt to steal, “you're saving yourself a lot of outs….Which is more valuable: a potential out or one more base?" With batting averages down and base hits becoming harder to come by, many managers are answering that question differently now than they did back then.
Andrew C. Sharp is a retired journalist and a SABR member who lives in New Jersey and blogs about D.C. baseball at washingtonbaseballhistory.com
Cleaning Up
How I’d Fill Out My Hall of Fame Ballot
By Dan Schlossberg
The Class of 2025 ballot for the Baseball Hall of Fame contains many worthy candidates.
To win election, players must win 75 per cent of the vote from the Baseball Writers Association of America.
Needless to say, it’s not easy — especially if voters fail to fill out all 10 spaces on their ballots.
Putting down just a handful of names — or none, if anybody is still protesting the exclusion of the late Pete Rose — skews the entire process and makes it hard for anyone to get in, especially for any first-time candidate not named Ichiro.
Combining his Japanese and American totals, Ichiro is the world hits king with 4,367. He never gambled on baseball, dabbled in steroids, or banged a drum slowly to tell teammates what was coming. Unfortunately, he never reached the World Series either — much like his primary team, the Seattle Mariners.
Still, Ichiro deserves to be No. 1 in the Class of 2025 and No. 2 on the list of players enshrined unanimously, along with Mariano Rivera.
If voters filled out their ballots completely, more players would reach the required 75 per cent and fewer deserving players would be left out.
That’s not to say every writer thinks 10 players should be inducted but only to list their choices in order of preference. Ask two writers and you’ll get three different opinions, which is why filling out the ballot is essential — just as it is in the voting for Most Valuable Player in each league.
Voters must be 10-year members of the BBWAA and candidates who muster 5 per cent of the vote can stay on the ballot for 10 years before they’re considered by the Eras (read that Veterans) Committees.
That being said, here’s how I would fill out my ballot if I had a vote:
Ichiro — In addition to his hitting prowess, he’s one of 10 outfielders to win 10 consecutive Gold Gloves, along with incumbent Hall of Famers Willie Mays, Roberto Clemente, and Ken Griffey, Jr. plus contender Andruw Jones. A plus defender with a strong arm, Ichiro was also a base-stealer. And one of two men to win MVP and Rookie of the Year in the same season. A no-brainer.
Andruw Jones — During Atlanta’s 14-year title run, he led the team in WAR five times — more than any of his more famous teammates. A gifted center-fielder, he also hit 434 home runs and was the youngest man to homer in the World Series. The Braves retired his number and put him in their Hall of Fame. Cooperstown should do the same despite his late-career nosedive that plunged his career average to .256.
Billy Wagner — Perhaps the best left-hander closer in baseball history, this diminutive flame-thrower starred for several National League teams. He finished with 422 saves, two behind fellow standout southpaw John Franco and miles behind Trevor Hoffman but still a strong candidate.
CC Sabathia — Another lefty who threw hard, CC was an ace in Cleveland and New York, finishing with 251 wins. He’s up for the first time this fall.
Carlos Beltran — With the 2017 World Series electronic sign-stealing scandal retreating into the rear-view mirror, this former center-fielder deserves another look from the Cooperstown voters. He provided power, speed, and defense.
Chase Utley — A slugging second baseman who spent 16 seasons in the majors, he starred on offense and defense for the Phillies, teaming with shortstop Jimmy Rollins, who actually won an MVP award while they were together. Utley hit five home runs during the 2009 World Series, which the Phils lost to the Yankees.
Jimmy Rollins — A little guy with a big bat, the 5’7” shortstop won four Gold Gloves and three trips to the All-Star Game. He led the National League in triples four times and stolen bases once. And did we mention he won an MVP trophy?
Andy Pettitte — His 19 post-season wins stand alone at the top of the lifetime list. A left-hander who spent most of his career in Yankees pinstripes but a few years in Houston, Pettitte won 256 games (more than Sabathia) and never had a losing record. He apologized for PED abuse when others persisted in denial.
Jose Bautista — With Gary Sheffield off the ballot and now in the purview of the Eras Committee, this fellow outfielder might get a better look. His two consecutive home run crowns are a good calling card.
David Wright — There’s a shortage of third basemen in Cooperstown but this long-time Mets captain could help fill the void. A strong hitter with power, he also supplied far better defense at the hot corner than anyone who’s tried it in New York since. Too bad spinal stenosis curtailed his career early.
Maybe Next Year: Torii Hunter, Jose Reyes, Victor Martinez, Matt Holliday, Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Buehrle.
No way: Omar Vizquel, Bartolo Colon, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez.
Dan Schlossberg of Fair Lawn, NJ is weekend editor of Here’s The Pitch and editor of Here’s The Pitch 2025, a book of essays by IBWAA writers. His email is ballauthor@gmail.com.
Timeless Trivia: Chris Sails To Cy Young Trophy
Quite a year for Chris Sale, who not only won his first Cy Young but got 26 of 30 first-place votes . . .
He and AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal both won the Triple Crown of pitching, representing leadership in wins, strikeouts, and ERA . . .
In his first NL season, Sale credited the Atlanta defense, which he said played so well behind him that he yielded only one unearned run all year . . .
The lanky lefty helped himself with a Gold Glove, a prize previously captured by Atlanta pitchers Greg Maddux and Mike Hampton . . .
Sale was also voted the National League’s Comeback Player of the Year for 2024.
Know Your Editors
HERE’S THE PITCH is published daily except Sundays and holidays. Benjamin Chase [gopherben@gmail.com] handles Monday and Tuesday editions, Elizabeth Muratore [nymfan97@gmail.com] does Wednesday and Thursday, and Dan Schlossberg [ballauthor@gmail.com] edits the weekend editions on Friday and Saturday. Readers are encouraged to contribute comments, articles, and letters to the editor. HTP reserves the right to edit for brevity, clarity, and good taste.