IBWAA Newsletter Inspires New Baseball Book
BEST 2024 STORIES BY MEMBERS WILL BE SELECTED FOR INCLUSION
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Last Day To Vote For SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards
Today, February 9, is the final day to vote for the SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards. You can vote at ibwaa.com/sabr-voting and at Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, Sports Info Solutions, and SABR.org.
Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
The suddenly-spending Kansas City Royals now have the highest luxury tax payroll in the AL Central at $161.1M . . .
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the prized pitcher plucked from the Japanese majors by the Dodgers, can opt out of his 12-year, $325 million pact after the 2029 and 2031 seasons — but can’t opt out until after 2031 and 2033 if he has elbow problems . . .
Cody Bellinger’s asking price is so high that the Toronto Blue Jays spent money ticketed for him on Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa . . .
Even in retirement, Hall of Famer Andre Dawson is still submitting to surgeries, most recently a hip replacement . . .
After posting a 2.90 ERA in six post-season starts for Texas, Jordan Montgomery would be severely missed if he signs elsewhere . . .
The Rangers won’t have injured veteran starters Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer back before midseason.
Leading Off
ACTA To Publish First ‘Here’s The Pitch’ Annual
For the past 35 years, ACTA Publications has produced a paperback compendium full of timely information and entertaining, educational, and informative essays written by Bill James and other accomplished baseball thinkers.
The Chicago-based publisher is switching gears for 2025 with a new project, named Here’s The Pitch after the six-times-weekly newsletter written and published by the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America [IBWAA].
The first edition, to be published in November, will contain controversies, opinions, and articles on topics ranging from future expansion to likely Hall of Famers, with attention to such subjects as pitchers in pursuit of 300 wins, rookies who might blossom into stars, and owners overlooked by Cooperstown.
Dan Schlossberg, weekend editor of the ‘Here’s The Pitch’ newsletter, is a former Associated Press sportswriter who currently covers the game for forbes.com, USA TODAY Sports Weekly, Sports Collectors Digest, Memories & Dreams, and other outlets.
He is also the author of more than three-dozen books, including this year’s Home Run King: the Remarkable Record of Hank Aaron, The New Baseball Bible, and collaborations with Ron Blomberg, Milo Hamilton, and Al Clark.
Elizabeth Muratore and Benjamin Chase, who each edit a pair of weekday newsletters for the IBWAA, will be associate editors of the new project.
The book will be written exclusively by members of the IBWAA who already contribute to the five-year-old newsletter.
Schlossberg will select and edit the articles for the book, which will emphasize writing and research over statistics and analytics. Fantasy baseball, including predictions for the upcoming season, will also be included.
ACTA Publications publisher Greg Pierce conceived the project after reading multiple editions of Here’s The Pitch, including the expanded weekend editions.
“We’re always the first publication in newsstands and bookstores –- almost before the baseball season ends,” he said. “By coming out in November, we fill a void for fans because there’s practically no baseball news between the end of the World Series and start of the winter meetings.
“The IBWAA has some of the best baseball writers in the country and we’re pleased to offer them this opportunity to showcase their work.”
ACTA Publications produced a slimmed-down edition of the Bill James book last fall and called it The Bill James Handbook: Walk-Off Edition.
The 200-plus page book will retail for $24.95 and be available from ACTA.com.
Cleaning Up
NEW ‘HERE’S THE PITCH’ BOOK TO INCLUDE FANTASY DRAFT RECOMMENDATIONS
[Editor’s Note: An expanded version of this article by G.M. Pibro will be published every year in a new baseball annual, also called Here’s the Pitch, to be edited by me. It will be published by ACTA Sports, publishers of the Bill James Handbook for the past 34 years. All the articles will be chosen by me and my two co-editors at Here’s The Pitch and written exclusively by members of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America (IBWAA). The plan is to publish the book on November 1 of each year, focused on the season just completed and the upcoming season. —Dan Schlossberg, weekend editor, Here’s The Pitch.]
© 2024 by G.M. Pibro
A Note to Readers. First of all, let me make it clear that I am not now, have never been, will not be, and probably would not do an excellent job as General Manager of any Major League Baseball team. However, I have participated in many fantasy drafts and have been successful in most of them. By “success,” I mean that I didn’t make a fool out of myself or been taken to the cleaners by my opponents in the draft. Also I have never come in lower than fourth in any fantasy league I was in.
It's not that I’m a genius, although I might be, but it’s because most of the time I am up against what I call “casual” fantasy baseball fans who, apparently, do little or almost no preparation for their draft. I am publishing my recommendations for the 2024 draft here because, well, I can, thanks to Here’s the Pitch.
Even the good folks at IBWAA will never know my true identity. Only the publishers of the new annual will know but they have been sworn to secrecy and I know where they live.
So, here’s the pitch. Below you will find potential draft picks for each player position in fantasy drafts for the 2024 season. They have been well researched (by me) and are in the order in which I am drafting them in the drafts I am participating in. (That way I can tell you how I did next year.)
I will follow each of my recommended picks with a short (no more than twenty-five words) explanation of why that player is on my fantasy list and why he would be a good pick in certain situations or types of leagues.
If you do draft some of my recommendations, I guarantee no one will laugh at you at your choice, and a few will give an appreciative nod each time you pick. You may also draft one or two that no one even thought of (including potential player call-ups during the season that I will eventually include on each annual list in the book).
As you know, once a player is drafted, they come off the board. Most fantasy leagues allow trades during the season, so if you miss on a player you might be able to trade or drop-add for him later, or vice versa. Also, some leagues are “keeper” leagues where you get to keep some or all of your players for as many seasons as you want or the rules allow. So note younger players that would be exceptionally good picks for keeper leagues.
Finally, all pigs are not equal, as George Orwell pointed out in Animal Farm, so the first few rounds of a draft are the most important not to screw up. So, Here I am recommending the top twenty-one players regardless of position that I plan to pick from in the first round or two this year (they should all be gone after that, depending on the number of people in your fantasy league. I present them here in the order of who I think is the best pick left on the board at that time. If ANY of these 20 players are available when it is your turn to pick, pick him. Full stop.
OK, have fun. I always do, partly because I have always had my list available to me exclusively. Now I am sharing it with you. You’re welcome. Good luck (unless you’re in one of my fantasy leagues, which you will not know because you haven’t the slightest idea who I am). But I promise you, I am not AI. At least not yet.
One of the great things about Here’s the Pitch is that you can all share any feedback (positive or negative) to the editors and other subscribers. I might even use some of your ideas for the 2025 fantasy draft recommendations that will be in the new book.
OK. Here’s what you need to do for your 2024 fantasy drafts. Today, I am sharing a strategy that is not a pick-by-pick approach but rather a 162-game approach that I trust will add to your success in your upcoming fantasy baseball league draft for 2024.
This projection is aimed at H2H (Head-to-Head Scoring) including both the AL and the NL player pools. Rotisserie and other league types are not covered here. If you are joining a fantasy league, it is most likely that you are playing against friends, family members, and/or co-workers. If so, H2H is most likely what your league format will look like:
My personal preference. I value Hitting far above Pitching in the early rounds of fantasy drafting. Here is my rationale. If you draft a pitcher in the first round and then maybe subsequent rounds thereafter, you will have a few pitching studs on your team, but you have given up on the top hitters in the entire draft because some positions thin out quickly (e.g. catchers). If you draft enough pitchers in later rounds but have key offensive positions covered, you can follow this strategy: Have 2-start pitchers in the lineup more frequently vs. the once-in-3-weeks stud pitcher who usually goes only twice in a week. Meanwhile, since you drafted offense well, you will have consistent hitting every week and maybe do not need to waste draft spots on backup offense, leaving room for more pitchers than some of the other players in your fantasy league. For example, having a Pable Lopez-type pitcher go twice a week every week vs. a Spencer Strider-type pitcher only going once a week for two out of three weeks, I believe is a better strategy.
First Round of the Draft. Whether you have a snake draft (1-10) and then snake back to 11-20 and so forth (i.e., the person with the 10th pick gets the 11th pick back down to 20th) or you have a salary-cap league where you can bid on anyone player per round but must stay under the cap for the whole draft, you must score an impactful player or two in the first wo rounds. Taking chances or relying on sentiment for the first two rounds (as my stupid brother does every year) is not recommended.
Here are my top-20 first round choices in order of my personal preference this upcoming 2024 season. (Of COURSE things change during the season—players get hurt, suspended, depressed, overwhelmed, distracted, mentally ill, etc.—that is why you have to have a good backup at every position AND why trades or drop-adds during the season are allowed in almost all fantasy leagues.
So, here are my top-20 picks as of February 1 for the 2024 season. (Note, positions eligible for drafting each player in 2024 are listed in parentheses):
#1. Mookie Betts (2B, SS, OF, DH) Most pundits are picking Ronald Acuna because of the monster year he had last year. I am saying Betts is more valuable because he qualifies at 2B this coming year, which has not been a strong offensive position the last few years. Qualifying for 2B moves him from his traditional early second-round pick to my #1 overall pick this year.
#2. Ronald Acuña (OF, DH) Acuña had a monster year last year and even without that he will be a top-10 draft target each and every year. He does have a little injury risk, but worth the pick this high.
#3. Freddie Freeman (1B, DH) going back to ancient fantasy baseball times, first base was the strongest position for offense. That has faded as years have gone by, and there are now only maybe six top-tier first basemen now. Freeman’s mix of power (HR), speed (SB), and clutch hitting (RBI) sets him apart. Now slot Ohtani into the Dodger #3 spot in the order, right behind Freeman and with Betts hitting ahead of him, and he could be the player with that monster fantasy season everyone is looking for.
#4. Juan Soto (OF, DH) I could have just as easily slotted Aaron Judge here, as I believe it is a toss-up between those two for the first outfielder spot. I tipped my cap to Soto because Judge has an injury history he just cannot seem to shake. These two will be back-to-back in the Yankees lineup, helping both of them boost their offensive production.
#5. Aaron Judge (OF, DH) If the baseball gods could guarantee you a 150-plus-inning season for Judge, you could make an argument that he should go #1 overall. That being said, I am an Agnostic (but not an Atheist) when it comes to baseball gods. With Soto as his batting partner, expect large numbers in 2024 from Judge (as long as he stays healthy).
#6. Julio Rodriguez (OF, DH) Hasn’t even reached his potential yet and he is a top-10 player on my fantasy draft list! In years to come, Rodriguez will be #1 overall. You read it here first!
#7. Corey Seager (SS, DH) Although shortstop is a deep position for talent, there’s no denying what Seager did last year, including into the play-offs. He had been a high pick player in the past, but after last season he climbs to #7 on my fantasy draft list.
# 8. Yordan Alvarez (OF, DH) If Alverez ever plates 600 AB’s, he will be the league MVP. The problem is that he takes time off each year due to injury. Alvarez played forty games in the outfield in 2023, so he qualifies for there for 2024, which is what makes him a top-10 fantasy pick for me. (Check your fantasy league requirements, but forty games at any position should qualify a player for that position.)
#9. Matt Olson (1B, DH) Olson obviously had an upper echelon year last year. He has gotten better just about every year and is only twenty-nine years old. He bats in the middle of a very strong Braves lineup and could keep the high level from last year going strong. Remember, first base is not a strong position for good fantasy picks this year after the first five or six first basemen are off the board.
#10. Bryce Harper (1B, DH) Well, he IS Bryce Harper. If he plays first base, and if he plays 150+ games in 2024, he belongs here or much higher. At 1B, instead of outfield, I even have some hope that he plays a full season.
#11. Gerrit Cole (SP) IF you’re going to pick a pitcher this high, there is none better than Gerrit Cole. Year in and year out, he performs as one of the top-3 pitchers in the league. He has had minimal missed time from injuries and flat out knows how to dominate hitters. I can almost guarantee Cole to be a top-3 pitcher again this season. As for me, as I explained above, I lean in towards offense and would not pick him here unless everyone above him is already chosen…and maybe not even then.
#12. Kyle T Tucker (OF, DH) Pretty much a 30-HR, 30-SB candidate every year, Tucker is the hallmark of consistency. He is only 27, so I think he might even move into the top-10 tier this season. At #12, I’d be happy if he just does in 2024 what he has done so far in the past.
#13. Corbin Carroll (OF, DH) Claimed the Rookie of the Year award in the NL, and rightly so. He has a rare combination of hitting ability, power, and speed (ala Kyle T Tucker above). At his young age, Carroll will soon join Julio Rodriguez on my up-and-comers list.
#14. Fernando Tatis, Jr. (OF, DH) Came off a monster year in 2021 at age 23 and then was injured in 2022, only to be suspended for 50 games at the end of the 2022 season and 20 more into the 2023 season. But Tatis is only twenty-five and the sky is still the limit for him. A bit of a gamble, but definitely worth a #14 pick.
#15. Jose Ramirez (3B, DH) Ramirez was a first-round pick in each of the last two drafts I was in, but his production fell off a little bit last year. Not his fault, but still relevant. The Guardians had one of the worst offenses in baseball, so Ramirez pretty much carried what they did do. Look for him to rebound.
#16. Bobby Witt (SS, DH) Still only 23 but already a seasoned veteran. My guess is that Witt will be in the top-10 fantasy players by the end of the 2024 season. I’m just not sure he won’t take a few weeks or more to get there. Definitely a great pick at #15 though. I would put him in the same category as Julio Rodriguez and Corbin Carroll as far as long-term potential. One problem, he plays for the Royals. Not much offensive support for him can be expected there this year IMO.
#17: Trea Turner (SS, DH) A Top-10 pick in years past, Turner had a hiccup the first half of last season but played elite again the second half. He should bounce back to his highest level this year.
#18. Shohei Ohtani (DH only) Tough to take any DH-only hitter this high, but then he IS Shohei Ohtani. Per at bat, not a better hitter in baseball. The only reason he is not in the top-10 on my list is position flexibility. You pick Ohtani as your DH, he has to be your daily DH, leaving you no other good DH on another team that could rotate with him based on injury or schedule matchups.
# 19. Adley Rutschman (C, DH) Other puny pundits would not pick Rutschman this high, but I predict he is taking it to the next level. His talent is enormous, and his power should increase. Most of all, there are few catchers who play as often as he does, and not one of them has the upside he does. Per this position, he is a huge value pick at #19.
#20. Spencer Strider (SP) One of the two elite pitchers from a fantasy baseball perspective. If you are going to pick a pitcher this high, Strider would be the man.
# 21 Mike Trout (OF, DH) Perennially a top-3 pick in all fantasy drafts, injuries have mitigated the fantasy value of perhaps the best overall player in fantasy baseball. But have no doubt, Trout IS the best overall hitter in baseball when healthy. But will he stay healthy? I dunno, and neither do you, but that’s why I have him at #21 instead of on my top-20 list.
After the first 20 picks are gone, your strategies should kick in. If you did not pick Rutschman, you should wait a few rounds till you pick a catcher (though with Will Smith batting after Ohtani, Freeman, and Betts, he might be a good pick sooner than that). Shortstop is deep, keep that in mind, so you don’t have to jump there. Third base is solid, so you’ll have five or six more to choose from in the next tier. At first, there are Alonso, Guerrero, and Goldschmidt and then it drops off. Second has little to offer except for Jose Altuve and Marcus Semien. Most of the top tier outfielders are gone by now so pitchers are now starting to matter in your drafting.
One of my strategies is to pick a closer or two late, as closers—except for one or two or three—fluctuate in fantasy value. Also, there are always closers who come out of the woodwork every year to star in fantasy leagues.
Finally, in the Here’s the Pitch new annual book due out in November, I’ll share my picks for the 2025 season and strategies for the final rounds in fantasy drafts, as well as whom to gamble on picking higher than expected, which is really what takes you from fourth to third to second and maybe even first in your fantasy league. For now, play ball!
G.M. Pibro is the pen name of one of the members of IBWAA.
Timeless Trivia: on Four-Homer Games
Four-homer games are one of the rarities of baseball, with only 18 players turning the trick . . .
Only six four-homer men are enshrined in Cooperstown: Ed Delahanty, Lou Gehrig, Gil Hodges, Chuck Klein, Willie Mays, and Mike Schmidt . . .
Nate Colbert and Stan Musial hit five home runs in one day — in a double-header — but never hit four in one game . . .
Other players who never performed the feat were home run kings Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, and Barry Bonds . . .
When Mike Cameron hit four in a game, he got only four RBIs as there was never anyone on base . . .
Shawn Green’s feat was especially impressive, since he wound up with a record 19 total bases, adding a single and double to four homers during a 6-for-6 night.
Know Your Editors
HERE’S THE PITCH is published daily except Sundays and holidays. Benjamin Chase [gopherben@gmail.com] handles Monday and Tuesday editions, Elizabeth Muratore [nymfan97@gmail.com] does Wednesday and Thursday, and Dan Schlossberg [ballauthor@gmail.com] edits the weekend editions on Friday and Saturday. Readers are encouraged to contribute comments, articles, and letters to the editor. HTP reserves the right to edit for brevity, clarity, and good taste.
Bob Horner of the July 6, 1986 Braves hit also 4HRs in albeit a losing cause.