Does Tanking In Baseball Work?
Many teams have had success with rebuilds, but not every team wins by tearing down
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Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
. . . The Houston Astros selected first overall in the MLB draft each season from 2012-2014. They’ve now at least reached the ALCS in each of the past six seasons, reaching four World Series.
Leading Off
Not Every Baseball Team Teardown Works
by Benjamin Chase
The Atlanta Braves won the World Series in 2021 and currently have the best record in Major League Baseball by five games and are on pace to break the Minnesota Twins' 2019 single-season team home run record (Braves are on pace for 313, which would best Minnesota's record of 307).
The Houston Astros have been part of four of the last five World Series, winning in 2017 and 2022. The Chicago Cubs won the championship in 2016.
Using that evidence, one would think that "tanking" is a successful practice for major league teams. However, the data shows that is not true whatsoever.
The failures
Okay, failure may be too strong of a word, but if the goal of a rebuild is to win a championship, in the last decade of 20 possible World Series participants, a notable amount of teams reached the Series multiple times (four). Nine other teams made the Fall Classic once, meaning that over the past 10 years, 17 teams did NOT make a World Series.
Multiple teams that did make the Series went into a teardown, and they've struggled since, so even the teams that had success struggled to sustain it.
For example, after their run that led to back-to-back World Series appearances in 2014 and 2015, the Kansas City Royals have gone 443-589, for a .429 winning percentage, despite selling off the main parts of those teams for prospects as well as using compensatory draft picks from the players that left via free agency. In 2023, the Royals are sporting a .292 winning percentage, second-worst in the entire league.
After making the playoffs in 2017 and 2018, the Colorado Rockies allowed a number of key members of the team to walk away in free agency, and signing their free agents to replace the outgoing players has not worked out. The Rockies have struggled to develop players, especially pitchers, to fill in those players, and after falling to 91 losses in 2019, they began selling off, peaking with the February 2021 deal of superstar Nolan Arenado to the St. Louis Cardinals. From 2019 through Sunday's action, the Rockies have gone 280-370.
After making the playoffs four years in a row and winning 86 games in 2016, the Detroit Tigers sold off in the 2017 season, trading away JD Martinez, Justin Upton, and franchise icon Justin Verlander. The Tigers finished with 98 losses in 2017 and have lost at a 94-loss pass in the five seasons since.
So what is needed?
What separates the teams that have succeeded at rebuilds from those that have struggled?
More than anything, it's the focus of where the money is invested. While roster-building requires strong players, the primary focus of that spending should be on the development system within the organization.
Speaking of the development system, a significant thing that teams that have been successful in building and maintaining success at the top level all have in common is a developmental system that presents the same (or at least very similar) messaging for players in the organization from the complex levels all the way to the big league club.
So rather than teams making big splashes in the draft, international signings, and/or free agency, investments should be made in the support system around the organization to ensure long-term viability.
Benjamin Chase is a reporter in rural South Dakota with an intense love for baseball. He also is an editor for Here's The Pitch, writes for Rotoballer, and is the co-host of the Pallazzo Podcast prospect show. He can be found on X under @biggentleben.
Extra Innings
Despite losing this game, the Braves were part of a rare triple play this past week, one that hadn’t been seen in more than 130 years!