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Pregame Pepper
Did you know ...
The “Impossible Dream” pennant of the 1967 Boston Red Sox might have been a gift from future Hall of Famer Al Kaline, who missed 26 games for the Detroit Tigers after smashing his finger on the bat rack after striking out . . .
Minnesota manager Rocco Baldelli missed the entire 2005 season after tearing his ACL while playing wiffle ball with his brother during the off-season . . .
Dick Allen played for five different teams but refused to report when traded to the Braves because he didn’t want to play in the Deep South . . .
Dale Murphy, a natural lefty, batted and threw right-handed but signed with his left hand.
Leading Off
A 2021 Free Agent for Every MLB Team
By Ahaan S. Rungta
Even though the virus-shortened, 60-game schedule of 2020 left many teams and players in limbo, most clubs cultivated some idea of how to spend, how to trade, and whether they might be in position for a quick shot at a championship.
The new, 16-team playoff format even provided some fringe teams a chance at giving their core players a chance at meaningful games that they wouldn’t have experienced otherwise. Now that it is the off-season, free agents will come off the board – changing the complexion of the 2021 title chases in all six divisions.
We will name one free agent that each MLB team can realistically target who would make a solid signee, either for a short or long-term deal. We will only consider members of the current 2021 free-agent pool who have not yet been signed and the challenge will be that we cannot mention one name for multiple teams; i.e. we will look for the best realistic fit instead of just assigning George Springer, Trevor Bauer, or DJ LeMahieu to every team that has the ability (meaning dollars) and creativity to sign him. Some of these names will be superstars, others will be under-the-radar steals.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Martín Pérez
While Martín Pérez had a perfectly solid year for a back-end caliber starter in 2020 for the Red Sox, he also had the highest SIERA of any qualified pitcher in Major League Baseball in 2020, implying his hot streaks this year weren’t an indication of newfound elite-tier stuff but rather a mix of serviceable pitch locations and fortunate usage of ground balls. In a hitter’s environment like the NL West, Pérez can provide his ground ball profile and experience to a short deal as a back-end starter for a team like the Diamondbacks. I don’t see Arizona, which has a solid core of young offensive talent, to go after huge names in the off-season as the D’backs aren’t a real contender for the division at the moment.
Atlanta Braves: Joc Pederson
Just one win away from a National League pennant in 2020, the Braves had a regular-season MVP but their most reliable offensive threat in the postseason may have just been the 1-year acquisition of Marcell Ozuna. However, with the status of the designated hitter still in question as of now, the prospective DH Ozuna will wait to sign with a team as it would make little sense for him to agree with a deal that forces him to play the field every day. In this light, the Braves could very well watch Ozuna walk to an American League team, specifically a contender — we will later identify which one that would be.
Instead, they can get a noticeable defensive upgrade, a much-needed left-handed at-bat, and some postseason experience all in one if they can snag Joc Pederson from the team that ended their title aspirations this season. Pederson struggled in the regular season in 2020 but his short October pedigree is one to be envied already as he came up with multiple clutch hits in the Dodgers’ championship run. Pederson will have to come up with a way to cut down on the long streaks of whiffs but when he does make contact, he does so at an elite level. In 2020, he was 96th percentile among all hitters in exit velocity, 79th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 68th percentile in barrel rate. His overall numbers in 2020 being somewhat of a disappointment could work to the Braves’ advantage if they want to ink him to a short, cheap deal. He can play both corner outfield spots and even replace 2020 NL MVP Freddie Freeman on his off-days.
Baltimore Orioles: Taijuan Walker
In 2010, the Seattle Mariners selected Taijuan Walker in the first round of the MLB draft. After impressing as a 21-year-old at the big-league level, he became a full-time starter in 2015 but was up and down. While his 4.56 ERA in 29 starts was nothing to be amazed at, he showed signs of brilliance and improved upon his performance in the 2016 and 2017 seasons, where he was amongst the league leaders in movement on his fastball and cutter while also mixing in a decent splitter, sinker, and curveball. Despite moving to the Arizona Diamondbacks and having to pitch in hitter-friendly environments, Walker showed growth and posted a 3.49 ERA in his age-24 season and pitched almost 160 innings.
It was 2018, however, his talented arm took a fall. Walker needed Tommy John surgery and wouldn't appear in the big leagues until one inning in 2019. In 2020, Walker made his return to the Seattle Mariners and then also spent time on the Toronto Blue Jays. All he did in his six starts for the Blue Jays was pitch 26.1 innings at a 1.37 ERA. He did walk 11 but he struck out 25 and showed flashes of that brilliance that earned him respect in the league in the first place. And yet again, in 2020, Walker was in the elite spectrum in horizontal and vertical movement on his fastball — but this year, he also improved upon the break in his curveball. Walker was amongst the top 26% of pitchers in softest contact induced.
Just 28 years old, Walker would make a great addition to the pitching-poor Orioles. Why shouldn’t they take a chance on the rejuvenated career of someone with five pitches, one of them a 94 mph fastball with movement? The Orioles are a rebuilding team with several promising offensive pieces but only have John Means as a bright spot in the pitching staff. Add Walker to the mix, develop his comeback story, and you have something cooking.
Boston Red Sox: Corey Kluber
The Red Sox, who won the World Series just two years ago, finished last in the AL East in 2020 and have now missed the playoffs two seasons in a row. While the blockbuster trade of Mookie Betts remains the biggest household storyline, the organization’s biggest concerns have to do with pitching. The Bosox had the third-worst ERA in MLB this year, primarily missing Chris Sale due to Tommy John surgery and Eduardo Rodriguez with a heart condition sparked by COVID-19. Those issues still loom during the offseason as both Sale and Rodriguez try to recover in a timely fashion but may not be ready in time for the 2021 season.
So instead of signing a top free agent, expect new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom to bring his Rays mentality to Boston by stacking the bullpen with value arms. Naturally, a familiar name who could fit in Boston? A former Cy Young winner who lives in Boston and grew up a Celtics fan — Corey Kluber.
Despite Kluber's success in the American League, where he led the circuit in wins twice and has an elite track record in the big moment, a torn muscle limited him to just one inning in 2020. Set to be 35 years old in the 2021 season, Kluber has created doubt in organizations about whether he is worth the risk. But the Red Sox should be a team willing to trust that his veteran experience can help mentor the younger arms like Rodriguez when he is back and top prospect Tanner Houck. In Kluber’s regular-season career, he has a 3.00 ERA against AL East teams not named the Boston Red Sox.
Chicago White Sox: James McCann
One of the most exciting teams in baseball, the young Chicago White Sox made fans and division rivals notice what they have to offer in 2020. Yet they shocked the world by hiring a manager who seems to contradict everything that their organization portrays to the onlooker, making them perhaps the most intriguing storyline of the American League this off-season and beyond. They will go all in to compete as soon as possible, which is why I have them being active on the free-agent pool this year, so my choice here is simply based on chronological priority.
While I think they have a good chance at landing bigger names, the Chicago White Sox have to re-sign the personal catcher of Lucas Giolito, one of the best upcoming superstars in our game.
Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Jon Lester are all guys that have used a personal catcher for a majority of their tenure with a franchise. McCann provides offensive value as a catcher, which means he could look for a team that gives him the playing time of one of the game’s best catchers, but the White Sox should work hard to bring him back to work with Giolito as he develops into his prime.
Chicago Cubs: Liam Hendriks
After parting ways with Theo Epstein, the Chicago Cubs have a lot to think about. Horrible years from Kris Bryant, Javier Báez, and Anthony Rizzo were not enough to stop them from sneaking into the playoffs with how dominant their starting pitching was, led by Cy Young finalist Yu Darvish. The bullpen has also been an area that the Cubs have valued but not gotten consistency from. If they do decide they want to continue to compete further in the coming years, the bullpen might just be their first visit and as they have often done in the pen, they can snag the biggest name on the market.
In the past two seasons, according to Baseball Savant, Hendriks has been elite-tier in fastball velocity, fastball spin, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, and whiff rate.
Cincinnati Reds: Marcus Semien
One of the potential landing spots in a Francisco Lindor trade, it’s a no-brainer that the Cincinnati Reds have names with a high offensive ceiling but shortstop remains a big hole for them, one that lacked depth in their disappointing post-season run in 2020. A team that doesn’t have a long-running history of spending in bulk, the Oakland Athletics could be focusing on the future of their pitching rather than re-signing one-year wonder Marcus Semien, making the Reds a perfect destination for him in 2021.
In Marcus Semien’s career, he has often been considered one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball, and even in his breakout of 2019, he earned a spot in the AL MVP finals due to an offensive burst and an appearance in the MLB bWAR leaderboards, but he was still only a .285/.369/.522 slash bat and a below-average shortstop in metrics such as outs above average. He has also consistently been amongst the league's below-average hard-hit ball hitters but his stats may reflect better on his contact profile in an environment such as Great American Ball Park.
Cleveland Indians: Marcell Ozuna
It is starting to become crystal clear that Marcell Ozuna should turn into a full-time designated hitter. If that cannot happen in the National League, there are spots available for him in the American. It is, in fact, quite possible that Ozuna signs with a NL team — but only after Rob Manfred makes it official that the NL will contain a DH.
For now, I’ll recommend the match between Cleveland and Ozuna. The Indians have the unanimous AL Cy Young winner of 2020, largely due to possessing one of the best pitching developmental staffs in the game. They also have the best shortstop in baseball in Francisco Lindor but may deal him for the long haul. So even though it is bold that the Indians would cash in big for Marcell Ozuna, they could see a change in culture during the off-season that makes them hold onto Lindor and bolster their offense for a serious playoff run. Since they value defense a lot, they have one of the best defensive squads in baseball already. Now, they need to get the power bat and slot him into the DH spot.
Colorado Rockies: Eric Thames
Eric Thames is no Ted Williams at the plate but after becoming a power-hitting sensation in Korea between 2014 and 2016, he spent three seasons with the Brewers amassing 140 extra-base hits at 15.4 at-bats per home run. In 2020, he signed a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals with a mutual option for 2021. But Thames' 2020 was so abysmal that the Nationals declined his option and he might have been their biggest disappointment of the year.
You know what that smells like to me? The upside of a steal for a team that doesn’t have all that much to lose. With the first base situation still in dust for Colorado, a team that has arguably the best left side of the infield in the game, Thames’ ability to barrel up the baseball can come in handy for an offense that’s been on the decline despite playing at Coors Field. At 33 years old, Thames will definitely get a shot somewhere.
Detroit Tigers: Jake Odorizzi
One of the best power-hitting clubs in 2020, the Tigers are building a nice core of young major-league talent featuring Casey Mize, Willi Castro, and Isaac Paredes. With A.J. Hinch set to manage the club in 2021, the Tigers clearly want to start trending towards winning while also giving their prospects some exposure. With the decline of Matthew Boyd and the lack of a real backup plan in the rotation, it would make sense to add a veteran arm that could have massive upside in Comerica Park. For that reason, I am assigning them Jake Odorizzi.
After accepting a qualifying offer from the Minnesota Twins last offseason, Odorizzi couldn't back up his high profile by shining in 2020. Instead, he put up a 6.59 ERA and made only four starts due to injuries. He came up home runs at an alarming rate. As a Fangraphs blogger noted: "There’s not a great deal of good news in Odorizzi’s profile, but despite the injury issues, he at least didn’t lose velocity. His 6.59 ERA is largely the result of giving up four home runs, a 23.5% HR/FB rate in his 13.2 innings of work. Those long balls were all barrels — he allowed seven in his four games — but given the vagaries of the 2020 season and the injuries he was fighting, I don’t think he’s down in reclamation project territory."
It is unlikely that an immediate World Series contender would pick up the risk of Odorizzi but in a pitcher’s ballpark, the Tigers might just take that flier with very little to lose and a chance for a veteran mentor in the clubhouse.
Houston Astros: Jackie Bradley Jr.
For each of the last 5 seasons, Jackie Bradley Jr. has been in the elite tier in outfield jump and outs-above-average, making him one of the most dominant statistical outfielders on the defensive end. He is likely the best defensive outfielder in the 2021 free agent pool and in 2018, when he won the ALCS MVP trophy, the Astros got a look at what Bradley is able to do producing runs when he is on a hot streak with the bat.
Likely to lose George Springer to another team, the Astros might gladly take the offensive downgrade at center field if they are able to pay a reasonable price for Jackie Bradley Jr.
Kansas City Royals: Ha-seong Kim
Figure: Ha-seong Kim 2021 profile via FanGraphs.
Unlike most big names on the free agent pool of 2021, Kim is a sensation and still in his prime years. For the KBO's Kiwoom Heroes, Kim averaged over 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases over the past six seasons, and in the past season, he walked more than he struck out. He's only 5'9" but, like most Asian star players, he possesses breath-taking power and has a big leg kick that adds to his flair. Most contending teams won't run to the KBO market to immediately add a bat that will have a lot of adjustments to make but the Royals have the ability to add yet another power bat with sneaky tools to slide over to third base alongside Adalberto Mondesi. Even though the Royals haven’t been the most active team recently in finding free agent talent from Asia, they are quite the candidate to do so here.
Los Angeles Angels: Andrelton Simmons
Andrelton Simmons has been one of the best defensive shortstops in the game for his entire career but since coming to the Angels, he has upped his offensive consistency. In 30 games before opting out in 2020, he posted a sweet .297/.346/.356 slash line. The Angels will want to keep their offensive centerpieces in place for as long as they can through the Mike Trout era and with very little prospect stock at the shortstop position, they will do what they can to re-sign Simmons.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Blake Treinen
In 2018, as the Oakland Athletics’ closer, Blake Treinen put up mind-boggling numbers. He pitched 80.1 innings, struck out 100, walked only 21, and posted a 0.78 ERA, 0.834 WHIP, an all-star appearance, and received Cy Young and MVP votes as a reliever.
In 2019, an injury set his ability back and he lost the closer role to Liam Hendriks who is everybody's top reliever of this free-agent class. Treinen became a free agent and signed a healthily-sized one-year contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In his 2020 run with LA, he bounced back with his control and lowered his walk rate per 9 from 5.7 in 2019 to 2.8 in 2020. He finished the regular season with an ERA of 3.86 and made several high-leverage appearances in the 2020 championship run for the Dodgers, including a save in the World Series. Treinen is still only 32 years old, yet another chance at a small low-risk deal, especially if the Dodgers aren’t convinced about the future of Kenley Jansen as a reliable source of checkmate in playoff games.
Miami Marlins: Kolten Wong
Heavily regarded as one of the best defensive second basemen in the game, Kolten Wong has been a fairly predictable player over the last few years. In 2020, he posted a run-of-the-mill .265/.350/.326 slash line but he won his second straight Gold Glove Award. A team centered around young talent, the Marlins shocked the world with the amount of major-league-ready talent they fielded on their way to an NLDS appearance in 2020. They also had some veteran experience in Jesús Aguilar, Corey Dickerson, and Brandon Kintzler, but there is a hole in the infield if Jazz Chisholm still needs more time to develop into the star he can be. That can be filled with the rock that is Kolten Wong. While Wong continues to be below average at hitting the ball hard, he could help neutralize a Marlins lineup that struck out the ninth-most in 2020.
Milwaukee Brewers: Didi Gregorius
In perhaps the most wide-open division in baseball right now, the Brewers may have been bad in 2020 but they have the talent to be in the post-season mix very quickly again. The starting duo of Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes is one of the most underrated in baseball, the reliever duo of Josh Hader and Devin Williams is one of the game’s most dominant, and former MVP Christian Yelich is one of the best hitters in baseball. The key to the door of relevance? Filling a huge offensive hole, namely at shortstop.
In 2020, playing for the Philadelphia Phillies with former manager Joe Girardi, Gregorius was one of the most consistent offensive shortstops in the league. He produced a .284/.339/.488 slash and popped 22 extra-base hits. Still only 31 years old, it is clear that he believed in himself when he took a one-year deal in Philadelphia, and apparently, he was right. His 116wRC+ was 10th amongst qualified shortstops and despite the huge defensive downgrade the Brewers would make from Orlando Arcia to Didi Gregorius, it would be worth the offense.
Minnesota Twins: Nelson Cruz
Perhaps the biggest no-brainer of the day, Nelson Cruz is the fine wine of major-league hitters. Year after year, we think he’s going to decline. Year after year, we are wrong. Cruz was yet again one of the best hitters in 2020 and for a team with aspirations to finally break through in the playoffs, the Twins have to re-sign their best offensive player. They would still have room to bolster the depth of their pitching but their identity is still offense. Removing that bat from the lineup makes little sense.
Cruz finished the year with a .303/.397/.595 slash line and for the sixth time in his career, he received MVP votes. His 2020 ballot was tied for his highest finish in the MVP voting (6th place, also did so in 2015 for Seattle).
New York Yankees: D.J. LeMahieu
In a star-studded, power-packed offensive roster containing former MVP Giancarlo Stanton, former MVP finalist Aaron Judge, and 2020 MLB home run leader Luke Voit, the best hitter in New York and one of the best hitters in the sport was D.J. LeMahieu. It’s no secret that Yankees fans want to empty the banks in North America to throw at LeMahieu, perhaps the most complete right-handed hitter in the league. He’s also a capable defender at any base.
In two seasons with the Yankees, he has two top-four MVP finishes in the American League, a .336 average and .922 OPS in the regular season, and some iconic post-season moments. As Mike Petriello aptly explained, there's just no way to defend LeMahieu in the field. The Yankees will want to use a good amount of their available spendings on the man who might be the best hitter in baseball or the fans will riot.
New York Mets: George Springer
The Steve Cohen era is officially underway for the New York Mets and oh my lord, do we have some action. Cohen has made it clear that he is ready to drive the Mets to a winning status and after Marcus Stroman chose to opt back in for another year, they got some help from the biological gods when Robinson Cano was suspended for the 2021 season for a second PED violation, allowing the Mets to free up his $24 million salary.
Now, not only can they keep their eye on the Francisco Lindor trade possibility but they also have a little flexibility in free agency. In what aims to be a wild winter for the Mets, they need to go after a big name but which one?
Already the home to the best pitcher in baseball in Jacob deGrom, the Mets are notorious for finding ways to lose games via the bullpen or their outfield play, particularly defensively. While the best outfielder in the pool purely based on defense remains to be Jackie Bradley Jr., the best overall player that can easily save headaches in the outfield is clearly George Springer.
Whether or not you want to give credit to a former Astro's success, Springer is undeniably a candidate to be the best free agent on the market. The Mets have to make it happen.
Oakland Athletics: Tommy La Stella
Most likely the best player in the free-agent class who can be considered a utility player, La Stella is one of the toughest outs in baseball. As one Fangraphs blogger said, “2020 was another solid year for La Stella, who continued to be among baseball’s best at avoiding strikeouts and whiffs. He finished the year with a minuscule 5.3 percent strikeout rate and a walk rate nearly double that of his 2019 season. He even managed to raise his already-high contact rate.”
The Oakland Athletics traded for La Stella for their 2020 postseason run because he fits their profile perfectly. He’s a smart player for a smart organization. Still, with some years left in him, the Athletics will want to re-sign this member of the infield, especially if they lose out on their franchise shortstop, Marcus Semien.
Philadelphia Phillies: J.T. Realmuto
Just as with LeMahieu on the Yankees, the Philadelphia fanbase is not one that thrives on being quiet. It’s been made clear that they want the best catcher in baseball locked up long-term and the Phillies will likely have the resources to do it. With as bad as the bullpen arms were for the Phillies in 2020, it’s possible that they will prioritize pitching depth in free agency, but Realmuto should remain the only offensive member of the organization that they have to compete to keep.
Perhaps the most telling sign that the Phillies will need to put in work for Realmuto is that his top two other suitors are both division rivals — the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals. Realmuto hits at a career .300/.337/.469 slash line against the Mets in his career.
Pittsburgh Pirates: José Quintana
While the Pirates were one of the worst pitching staffs as a club by ERA in 2020, they were actually top 10 in the major leagues in strikeout rate. A veteran pitcher with a mediocre stat line but a solid strikeout rate? José Quintana, who boasts a 8.6 K/9 in his Cubs career. After a freak accident in 2020, Quintana could be overlooked in the free-agent pool amongst pitchers with better numbers but a career 3.73 ERA is nothing to scoff at and if Quintana rebounds, there could be trade value in the future for a rebuilding franchise.
San Diego Padres: Trevor Bauer
Have you heard that Trevor Bauer is a free agent? Even if you live under a rock, he and his agent Rachel Luba have probably found a way to let you know via social media. He’s been found trolling about joining just about any contending team, including the Houston Astros, and has said he is open to discussing all sorts of deals — long-term, short-term, etc. At the end of the day, the 2020 NL Cy Young winner will make bank and will get paid for what he’s worth. At still 29 years old, Bauer led the National League this season in ERA, ERA+, and WHIP and was amongst the sport's top 10% in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, strikeout rate, fastball spin, and curveball spin.
Whether or not you appreciate the off-the-field baggage that comes with Bauer's personality or if you believe that his boost in spin is coming from something other than pure talent, it’s wise to accept the fact that it’s likely that a contending team will go all-in on the ace.
Instead of a team like the Angels or the Red Sox that needs more than just one dominant pitcher to get Mike Trout to the playoffs, how about a team that is already perhaps a piece or two away from a pennant? With the loss of Mike Clevinger, an old buddy of Bauer’s, to Tommy John surgery, the Padres know that they can’t afford to lose a huge arm in the rotation and still get past the Dodgers and eventually to a World Series. The Padres are also no stranger to spending on a questioned personality. After signing Manny Machado to a mega-deal in 2019, Slam Diego just might make a bid for a top 3 starting rotation in the sport in 2021 and reunite Clevinger and Bauer in the organization.
San Francisco Giants: Garrett Richards
In 2020, Mike Yastrzemski received MVP votes, Donovan Solano was one of the best contact hitters in baseball, Brandon Belt was one of my statistical monsters of the year, and Mauricio Dubon emerged as one of the most underrated young utility players in the big leagues. Drew Smyly and Alex Dickerson also played major roles in keeping the Giants afloat. Yet, this San Francisco roster is clearly not what it used to be in their dynasty days. The team has a solid future, centered around Dubon and Joey Bart, but they can certainly use this free-agent class to see what they can get from starters. The one I'm suggested is someone who has been in the West his entire major league career and was born in California.
In 2020, Garrett Richards had one of the sneakiest pitch profiles in the league, with a fastball spin and curveball spin that were both top 3 percent among starters. He managed to be quite serviceable as a starter and reliever despite the dip in strikeout rate and lack of radar gun appeal — all factors that seem to be a decent fit with this San Francisco Giants roster. The Giants will probably go even cheaper on the free agent pool but if they want to add an established starter, Richards seems like their type of choice.
Seattle Mariners: Chris Archer
The Seattle Mariners have arguably the best long-term offensive future amongst teams that aren't considered contenders right now. A possible outfield of Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, and Taylor Trammell is absurd. Add in Emerson Hancock and Evan White and the Mariners should be very happy with the noise they could make in a few years. For now, what they could use is another starter to complement their young talent in the rotation. Instead of spending big on a top-tier name, they can give someone with low value right now a shot. Let’s shock the world and give 32-year-old Chris Archer a chance to prove himself.
Archer was one of the most highly-regarded pitcher names in the game in his 20s but since 2016, he has not had a single season with a sub-4.00 ERA and in 2020, he was ruled out for the season due to surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. There seems to be little to no downside to signing a guy like Archer if you have a spot for him, considering contending teams won’t be rushing to sign him this year. So instead, see what he can do on a shorter deal and if you like what you see, trade him at a high value.
St. Louis Cardinals: Yadier Molina
Cardinals scouting put on a painful display in 2020 when former members of the organization Luke Voit, Marcell Ozuna, and Randy Arozarena popped off and were some of the most important players in the regular season and post-season for other teams.
There is some scope for redemption if the Cardinals can scrape the barrel of the free-agent pool and fill some of their voids. However, both Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright are Cardinal lifers and it would be almost wrong to allow their fans to witness them in new uniforms. The Cardinals, in my opinion, will re-sign both and allow the 38-year-old catcher and 39-year-old starter who have helped bring two titles each to Busch Stadium to retire in that very city. Since I have to pick one, I’ll take the possible future Hall-of-Famer and 2018 Roberto Clemente Award winner, who can still spend some valuable time working with Andrew Knizner behind the plate.
Tampa Bay Rays: Michael Brantley
The Tampa Bay Rays have long been reputed as a team that doesn't spend in bulk. They were a poster child for sports analytics and won the pennant doing so in 2020. But a rare time they did spend more than just a few bucks was when Charlie Morton considered retirement in 2018 and Tampa Bay said “hold the breaks” and inked Morton to a two-year, $30 million contract.
Still just 33 years old, the veteran Michael Brantley profiles to fit into a deal exactly like that. In 2020, the 4-time all-star hit at a .300/.364/.476 slash line and was an anchor in an otherwise unreliable Houston Astros lineup and against right-handed pitchers, that slash was up to .331/.402/.525. He remains one of the best contact hitters in the game as he was amongst the top 10 percent among big-league hitters – his lowest whiff rate in five of the last six seasons.
If the Rays were to indeed move on from Charlie Morton due to age, instead of chasing a high-end pitcher on the free-agent market, why not bolster one of the most interesting OF/DH situations in the big leagues while also acquiring a much-needed everyday left-handed at-bat? It remains to be seen if the Rays would go all-in on a position player that doesn’t provide as much versatility as a guy like non-tendered Hunter Renfroe or holdover Yandy Díaz but the Rays need more offense to win the pennant again and Brantley would do just that for them.
Texas Rangers: Rick Porcello
Rick Porcello won a Cy Young Award four years ago. Rick Porcello, this year, posted a 5.64 ERA and lost seven games in 12 starts. Makes a lot of sense, of course, but one thing is for sure — Porcello is no dominant starter. He relies on ground balls and soft contact and his control hasn't been what it used to be a few years ago. He isn't going to be an ace but he can eat up innings and provide mentorship for a basement team. Ding, ding, ding, we have a match; the Texas Rangers had Lance Lynn and still were one of the worst pitching staffs in the league. Simply add Porcello to the team to get through a season and if he were to post good numbers, sell him at an unreasonably high rate to a team that needs help in a postseason run.
Toronto Blue Jays: James Paxton
James Paxton had a 3.42 ERA in his six-season career for the Seattle Mariners. In 2017, he had a 2.98 ERA and in 2018, the Big Maple tossed a no-hitter in his home country of Canada. Since getting traded to the Yankees, he has had his ups and downs and in 2020, Paxton underwent a microscopic lumbar discectomy and needed several months to recover until he made a few starts for the Yankees to the tune of a 6.64 ERA.
Previously a flame-thrower who produced strikeouts in bunches, Paxton still gets his Ks but has given up an alarmingly high number of barrels and seen a dip in velocity across the board. The profile of Paxton has been rather extreme over the years, even in Seattle. He was in the bottom 5 percent of MLB pitchers in hard hit percentage (i.e. gave up hard-hit balls at an excessive rate) in 2016 and 2018 but among the top 35 percent in 2017.
It remains unclear if Paxton will ever be dominant again, especially in a hitter-friendly environment, but if there’s a team that might be willing to take a steep risk like that and hope that Paxton goes back to inducing ground balls at an encouraging rate, it might be the one that shares his native national flag.
The Blue Jays have an outstanding young core of hitters that helped them reach the postseason in 2020 but they have recently prioritized high-end starting pitching by acquiring Hyun-jin Ryu and re-signing Robbie Ray. Don’t rule out the Jays to add another southpaw to the mix in a division with several outstanding left-handed bats.
Washington Nationals: Brad Hand
In one of the more surprising moves of the early offseason, the three-time all-star and 2020 MLB saves leader was placed on outright waivers by the Cleveland Indians. He then cleared waivers and became a free agent with the Indians set to pay a $1 million buyout. While Hand's fastball velocity continues to tick down, he continues to shift to his slider, one of the nastiest in the game. In fact, his batted ball profile on Baseball Savant has been identified as similar to names like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Mike Clevinger, and Blake Snell. At still 30 years old, there is little reason to believe that Hand can’t be one of the game’s best closers in 2021.
A team that has valued the closer role and has recently gone to a lefty to do so? The Washington Nationals. Despite possessing one of the worst bullpens in baseball in 2019, the Nats used their elite starting pitching and top-heavy lineup to win the World Series and acquired Daniel Hudson late in the season to fill in the closer role — which he nailed. However, in 2020, their pitching depth came back to bite them and their once-closer big-name arm of Sean Doolittle is also likely headed out of town as a free agent. In comes a potential replacement in Brad Hand.
In 2020, Hand was among the top 5 percent at his position in MLB in xwOBA, xBA, and xERA and he has been in the top 10 percent in strikeout rate for 5 straight seasons.
Ahaan S. Rungta is a sports podcaster (Count It), YouTuber (xCheese Baseball), and a writer for both Red Sox Life and Fantrax. He is active on Twitter at @AhaanRungta and via e.mail address ahaanrungta@alum.mit.edu.
Cleaning Up
New Book Shows Ballplayers Get Banged Up In Ridiculous Ways
By Dan Schlossberg
David Letterman had his Stupid Pet Tricks and Major League Baseball has its stupid injury list.
When Cody Bellinger banged the home run that gave the Los Angeles Dodgers the lead they would not relinquish in Game 7 of the NL Championship Series, he also banged up his shoulder so badly that it needed surgical repair.
Before Bellinger could find his seat in the Dodger dugout, celebrating teammate Kike Hernandez slammed into him so hard that he dislocated the slugger’s shoulder. Dodger doctors popped it back into place, allowing him to finish the game and the six-game World Series, but Bellinger submitted to surgery earlier this month and will be on the mend for the next 10 weeks !!!
That mishap happened too late to be included in Dave Berger’s new book, Take Me Out to the Ballgame: Comical and Freakish Injuries We Cannot Make Up.
Conceived in July and published in October, this $16.99 paperback is cleverly divided into team-by-team sections, each of them listing specific players and incidents. Details on each player are published too, giving the reader such data as player, name, position, stats, status, plus place and description of the accident that prompted publication in book form.
For example, the page for Scooter Gennett (love that name) says he played for three teams, once hit four home runs in a game, and joined Babe Ruth as the only men to pitch an inning and hit his 20th home run of the season in the same contest. But it also says Gennett landed on the 15-day disabled list (now called injured list) by scraping his knuckle so badly while showering that he needed stitches.
Each incident is named too.
Nolan Ryan’s, called Wily Coyote, occurred at his Alvin, Tex. home in 1985. The future Hall of Famer went out to his dog pen, discovered two coyote pups, and decided to take them home. But one of them didn’t like that idea and bit him on his pitching hand. After undergoing tests for rabies – and missing a start as the result of the bite -- Ryan gave the pups away.
Tom Glavine, another Hall of Famer who won 300 games, is also included in Berger’s book. He got so sick after eating on the team airplane that he broke a rib because of severe vomiting. Only a painkiller kept the lefty from missing a start.
Mike Remlinger, who also pitched for the Braves, made the book for an incident that occurred with the Cubs. While relaxing on a reclining chair, he pinched a finger on his pitching hand in another chair – landing on the disabled list. According to Dave Berger, he was pitching so poorly at the time that Cubs broadcaster Steve Stone suggested on-air that slumping pitchers should sit in Remlinger’s chair deliberately!
Nobody would have heard of Todd Bozied if not for his stupid injury. He hit a game-winning grand slam in the minors on July 29, pounced on home plate, and ruptured his patellar tendon –- knocking him out for the season.
Kendrys Morales did much the same thing in the majors. He hit a 10th-inning grand slam to win a game on May 29, 2010, then jumped up as he saw a crowd of celebrating teammates at home plate. He somehow broke his leg in the jam-up, costing him most of the 2010 season and all of 2011.
Arguably the best story in Berger’s book concerns a long-forgotten Red Sox pitcher named Clarence Blethen. He won 257 games in the minors but got a shot with the Sox in 1923. On September 21, he decided it might a good idea for him to take out his dentures and put them in his pants pocket. All he wanted to do was look meaner to opposing hitters. Without a DH, however, Blethen had to bat. He stroked a surprise base-hit but tried to stretch it into a double. Bad idea: the dentures took such a huge bite out of his butt that he was removed from the game for “excessive bleeding.” P.S. That was the only time he reached base in his big-league career!
Few fans will remember Michael Morse either. A fringe major-leaguer, he ran in to join a brawl when he crashed into San Francisco teammate Jeff Samardzija. He landed on the concussion list and went straight to oblivion without passing GO, never playing in the majors again.
There’s so much more: Bob Feller scalding himself with 200-degree water, Ron Bryant placing his career in jeopardy with an ill-advised dive into a swimming pool, Jake Peavy cutting his hand on a fishing knife, and Francisco Liriano blowing an $11 million contract by slamming his shoulder into a door while trying to surprise his kids on Christmas.
Players fell down dugout stairs, got their legs entangled during arguments, got hurt shoveling snow, suffered dirt bike mishaps, and pulled muscles while carrying their own bags. You name it, you’ll find it here.
Rickey Henderson reached the Hall of Fame as the holder of single-season and lifetime records for stolen bases but he’s also in this Hall of Laughter for getting frost-bite in August: he fell asleep while icing his valuable foot. The always-unpredictable Rickey missed three games.
Reading Berger’s book is like watching a silent film made by Charlie Chaplin – it’s funny, often hilarious, and always based on the theory that an event that seems like tragedy if it happens to you is often considered comedy if it happens to someone else.
At any rate, it’s good to see the Grand Old Game, taken too seriously by too many, lighten up a little.
The book was published by Inspired Authors Press [inspiredauthorspress.com]. Author Dave Berger can be reached by e.mail at daveberger@att.net. See also www.baseballinjurybook.com.
Dan Schlossberg of Fair Lawn, NJ is weekend editor of HERE’S THE PITCH and author of The New Baseball Bible: Notes, Nuggets, Lists and Legends From Our National Pastime. His e.mail is ballauthor@gmail.com.
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Know Your Editors
HERE’S THE PITCH is published daily except Sundays and holidays. Brian Harl [bchrom831@gmail.com] handles Monday and Tuesday editions, Elizabeth Muratore [nymfan97@gmail.com] does Wednesday and Thursday, and Dan Schlossberg [ballauthor@gmail.com] edits the weekend editions on Friday and Saturday. Readers are encouraged to contribute comments, articles, and letters to the editor. HTP reserves the right to edit for brevity, clarity, and good taste.
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