Are Marlins Doomed To Repeat Trade History?
Seventeen years ago, Miami traded a superstar and got very little in return. Will they make the same mistake this year?
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Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
. . . Of the players the Marlins received in the Miguel Cabrera-Dontrelle Willis trade, only two went on to have somewhat lengthy and notable MLB careers — Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. Maybin spent the next three years with Miami and returned to the Marlins in 2018 via free agency. In parts of four seasons (243 games) with the Marlins, Maybin produced a .255/.328/.375 slash line with 15 homers and 63 RBIs. Miller was with Miami from 2008-10 and did not inspire confidence with a 5.89 ERA over 58 appearances, but he thrived later in his career with Boston (2.64 ERA in 2013), Baltimore (1.35 ERA in 2014, New York (1.77 ERA from 2015-16) and Cleveland (2.22 ERA from 2016-18).
Leading Off
Seventeen Years Later, Will The Miami Marlins Make The Same Mistake?
By Sean Millerick
Seventeen years ago, the Miami Marlins made what has become one of the more maligned trades in MLB history.
For it was on this day, to the everlasting chagrin of one side and everlasting joy of the other, that future first-ballot Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera was traded to the Detroit Tigers for a boatload of prospects that never came close to matching their potential.
Will the Marlins make the same mistake again with pitching ace Sandy Alcantara?
It certainly seems like a possibility. Once again, trade whispers are starting to follow the name of a massive Miami star. It’s a story that has played out countless times in Marlins history, with Luis Arraez and Jazz Chisholm Jr. only serving as the most recent in a long line of examples of talented players being dealt before they started requiring major money. With the team not expected to contend in 2025, and with no true offensive star to its name, there really isn’t a player on the big league roster that can be viewed as untouchable.
Then again, the organization told Alcantara back in August that he would not be traded prior to Opening Day. Granted, that could be proof of a certain Trade Deadline deal this summer, but it is still unusual for a team to commit that publicly to a position they do not intend to honor. This would demonstrate that the Marlins have a healthy appreciation for what Alcantara offers both on and off the field, and the high esteem he is held in by fans and players alike. Reversing course over the next couple months might well be a bridge too far even for a franchise with Miami’s track record.
However, even a trade next summer might be too soon to move the player that is far and away the face of the franchise and one of the best values in MLB, particularly when you weigh in that aforementioned track record. It will all come down to what Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and owner Bruce Sherman believe Alcantara’s current value is, and there are plenty of parallels to that fateful 2007 trade.
Is Alcantara the current Cabrera? Or is his case more akin to the other star shipped away in that deal, Dontrelle Willis?
On the Cabrera side of the trade, the crime is obvious. Sure, the Marlins probably could not afford a long-term extension. Still, allowing a player of that caliber in their prime to leave is rare – even if it does keep happening to Juan Soto. It’s a decision that would have shaken any fan base, but especially one that had already endured so much heartbreak. The argument for them to have just “made it work” is not without merit.
What was much harder to believe though was that the club could not have even afforded another year of arbitration and moved Cabrera at the 2008 deadline or the following offseason. The return might have been lessened, but the fan fallout might also have been less. More importantly, if you play the “what if” game of sticking Cabrera onto the 2008 Marlins roster … they probably make the playoffs.
Obviously, that’s not a perfect science. Other players aren’t there if Cabrera was being paid to be part of that club. Then again, it’s not as if the Marlins made any splashy MLB free agent moves that offseason either. It’s not hard to imagine the circumstances and perception of the Marlins being very different today if that 2008 team had made a postseason run.
Fast forward to today, and it’s hard to envision any world in which the 2025 or 2026 model of the Marlins makes a playoff run without Alcantara. The club should be much better next year just with the benefit of improved injury luck alone, if the latest ZIPS projections are to be believed. Moving Alcantara would almost certainly hamstring any hope of a quick turnaround.
Of course, all of that only applies if Alcantara returns to his All-Star form. Should that not happen, the Willis side of the trade becomes a better point of comparison.
In many ways, Dontrelle was still the face of the franchise in the 2007 offseason, even if he had been eclipsed talent-wise on the field by Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez. Following a Cy Young-caliber season in 2005, Willis’ performance started to dip, with a much more mortal showing in 2006 and a downright poor 2007. All the same, you’d have been hard pressed to find a Marlins fan who was happy about the prospect of losing Willis. As good as he could be on the field, he was just as valuable as a leader and representative of the game.
Kind of sounds like Alcantara, doesn’t it?
However, the unfortunate truth of the Willis trade is that the Marlins likely dodged a bullet there. What if they had extended him? Or even just committed another year of arbitration money to Willis? Those 2008 and 2009 Marlins teams suddenly look very different, seeing as how Willis only pitched 57 2/3 MLB innings over those two seasons combined.
Now, whether you put aside the Tommy John surgery or not, there has been nowhere near enough evidence to believe Alcantara might be, as the kids say, cooked to the extent Willis was showing in late 2007. Yet you also can’t totally put aside Tommy John surgery, and there was nearly a full season of evidence that Alcantara might not be the same pitcher without defensive shifts and elite defense behind him.
While it’s hard to imagine the 2025 or 2026 Marlins being competitive without Alcantara, it’s impossible to imagine them doing do if they have to pay him without getting All-Star production in return.
If there’s one thing Bendix has proven to this point in his time with the Marlins, and the Rays business model that produced him, it’s that players won’t be moved unless the team believes it is getting max value in return.
Whether the Marlins believe Alcantara can return to his 2022 Cy Young form remains to be seen. What is beyond dispute though is that Alcantara is the biggest name on the team, and at least one of the two biggest names to possibly be traded since Cabrera and Willis made their way to Detroit. If you thought Marlins fans were angry over Giancarlo Stanton or Arraez being dealt, stay tuned for the Alcantara fallout.
Given its financial limitations, Miami will likely trade their ace eventually. They just can’t afford to get another blockbuster deal like this one wrong.
Sean Millerick is a diehard Miami Marlins fan but still finds cause for hope every Spring Training. He currently writes for @CallToThePen. You can find him on Twitter, or whatever Elon wants to call it, @miasportsminute.
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