American League East Futures Bets You Won't Want To Miss
In today's issue, we take a look at two futures bets involving the AL East that involve a team and a player currently flying under the radar.
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Pregame Pepper
Did you know…
. . . Though the Toronto Blue Jays have had an uneven first half of the season, as a team they rank among the MLB-wide leaders in several categories. Here’s how they’ve stacked up against their competition in a few key metrics so far this season, entering play on Tuesday, July 6:
Second in MLB in at-bats per home run (22.62) behind only the San Francisco Giants (22.14) and home runs (124) also behind the Giants (126)
Second in MLB in batting average (.265) behind only the Houston Astros (.273)
Third in MLB in total bases (1269) behind only the Astros (1300) and the Boston Red Sox (1280), and also third in hits (744) behind the Astros (800) and Red Sox (755)
Fourth in MLB in runs scored (423) trailing only the Astros (474), Red Sox (440), and Los Angeles Dodgers (432)
. . . When Aaron Judge finished second in the AL MVP voting in his 2017 rookie season, he lost to Jose Altuve of the Astros, who outpaced him in batting average, stolen bases, and hits, though Judge led him in home runs, RBIs, walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, runs, and bWAR. In MLB history, only two players have ever won the Rookie of the Year and the MVP in the same season: Fred Lynn in 1975 and Ichiro Suzuki in 2001.
Leading Off
Best Midseason MLB Futures Bets Of 2021
By Ahaan S. Rungta
With the MLB regular season now nearly at halftime, overreactions naturally dominate conversations. Predictions are flying, concerned and overly optimistic fan bases are having their opinions molded, and the beneficiary of all this is the gambling market. With lines moving every day, let’s spot the two biggest steals of the 2021 stash of futures bets you can place online if you are able to place a wager in a qualified state. All odds below will be from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Tuesday, July 6; you may find a better line elsewhere so search around if you’re looking for a better deal.
AL East Winner: Toronto Blue Jays (+700)
The AL East, arguably the best division in baseball by competitive balance, is a madhouse. Originally projected by most to be taken by the New York Yankees, the gritty pennant-winning Tampa Bay Rays and their pitching philosophies got them some control over the division. However, with one of the most pivotal injury news of the season, ace Tyler Glasnow saw his Rays transform from one of the hottest teams in the league to the coldest and give up the division lead to the well-balanced Boston Red Sox.
While the Rays still have a very competitive roster, their season has certainly taken a concerning U-turn since the introduction of “sticky substance” policing. Perhaps they will figure it out and continue to take care of matters in the division, but one can’t help but wonder about the possibility that the Red Sox fall prey to regression to the mean and the Rays continue to crush post-substance-crackdown. Right now, the division-leading Boston Red Sox sit as the comfortable favorite to win the AL East (-210). Naturally, the value sits in the odd-one-out competitive team in the division.
The Blue Jays’ identity is pretty clear. They can rake and they can get solid starting pitching from the top of their rotation, featuring Cy Young finalist Hyun Jin Ryu, strikeout merchant Robbie Ray, and rookie sensation Alek Manoah. The primary reason they are 9.0 games behind the division lead is due to their mediocre bullpen and an injury to their big offseason signing and leadoff man, George Springer. The good news? Both issues aren’t impossible to resolve.
If Springer can provide a large enough sample of work and the front office pushes the right buttons at the trade deadline to acquire some help on the mound, the Blue Jays could very well end up being the most dangerous team in the division during the second half of the regular season. Grab them at their steep price now before they utilize their rich farm system to acquire win-now talent. Toronto entered the season ranked as the No. 7 farm system in baseball by MLB writers.
American League MVP: Aaron Judge (+6000)
The two favorites for this prestigious award have stabilized as the two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani (-200) and the hard-hitting Blue Jay with a pedigree, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+170). While nobody else currently stands anywhere close to the leaders’ price, I have a suggestion that is worth a sprinkle at this point—someone with a little experience as an MVP candidate, the Bronx Bomber Aaron Judge.
When the big man rose to fame in 2017 via one of the greatest hitting rookie seasons ever, he slashed .284/.422/.627 with a 174 wRC+, all of which remain career highs for him in a season. That season, he finished as the American League MVP runner-up and moonwalked to his only career Silver Slugger as he also won AL Rookie of the Year. That season, Judge led the league in runs scored (128), home runs (52), and walks (127). While he isn't yet seeing the type of results that would justify that MVP contention, there are signs that he very well could in the remaining 80-plus games in the regular season.
Entering play on Tuesday, July 6, Judge is hitting at a .284/.379/.523 slash line, and his 147 wRC+ ranks 15th in MLB and ninth in the American League. Additionally, his peripherals suggest that his swing isn't far from his elite 2017 self, as he ranks in the top three percent in barrel rate, exit velocity, expected batting average (xBA), expected slugging percentage (xSLG), expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), and hard-hit rate.
While Judge has historically been significantly worse as a hitter in the second half of the season, there is no sign that that decline will repeat in 2021; in fact, it should encourage Yankee fans and Judge MVP bettors that he will not participate in the Home Run Derby, historically associated with second half declines. You know who is swinging in the derby though? AL MVP frontrunner Shohei Ohtani.
Judge's +6000 price ($10 to win $600) ranks sixth on FanDuel Sportsbook. To imply that he has a smaller than 1/61 probability to come back and take this award comes across as naïve, especially if the Yankees help his cause as a team and get hot to enter the playoff picture. If his odds plummet as he reaches finalist territory, you can even hedge to grab profit, your reward for reading his rise.
Ahaan S. Rungta is a sports podcaster (Count It), YouTuber (xCheese Baseball), and a writer for Red Sox Life, Fantrax, and Max’s Sporting Studio. He is active on Twitter at @AhaanRungta.
Extra Innings
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2021 home run compilation (as of eight home runs ago)
Aaron Judge 2017 home run compilation (all 52 homers he hit in his rookie year)