A Giant Narrative Change
The storied, struggling franchise needs one. Bad.
First Things First . . .
The wristbands and patches worn by MLB players on Lou Gehrig Day:
Pregame Pepper
. . . Momentum Occasion Dept.—Phillies superstar Bryce Harper doesn’t want either the players or the owners losing positive momentum as talks toward a new collective bargaining agreement have gotten underway.
As he told ESPN Sunday: “[W]e both have to understand our game is in a great position right now to succeed, and we can't lose that momentum. We can't lose that momentum as players. We can't lose that momentum as owners. So wherever we're at—hatever they're coming with, whatever we're coming with—you have to come to an agreement.
Harper also pointed out what might be obvious in a less hysterical era: follow more than the money when you follow the big, bad Dodgers’s dominance: “Obviously they make a lot of money, they're able to get free agents, but the Dodgers don't just do that. They draft well. They do a very good job in the minors, developing guys.”
. . . Communication Breakdown Dept.—As if the Red Sox don’t have enough trouble, this week began with reports that chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has communication issues up and down the organisation. Bleacher Report suggests Breslow being the only former major league player in the front office helps make for a less than diverse operation from which Breslow can’t rebuild a connect between the front office and the coaching staff.
. . . Pain Relief Dept.—The reviving Astros (8-4 in their last twelve) got a huge shot of pain relief Tuesday: All-Star relief ace Josh Hader, who came off the injured list after missing the first two months of the season with left biceps tendinitis.
. . . Location, Location, No-cation Dept.—The Yankees call Aaron Judge’s injury a bone bruise in a rib. Aaron Judge says he feels it “nagging” in his right shoulder. Three Inning Fan podcaster Kelley Franco says, “The Yankee injury shell game begins.” Judge is listed day-to-day at this writing.
Leading Off
A Giant Narrative Change
The storied but struggling franchise needs one. Bad.
By Bill Johnson
The 2026 Giants are, quite possibly, in the midst of writing one of the worst chapters in the long and storied history of the organization.
While Fangraphs still opines that the team may reach 74 wins [possible, since they only have two more series with the killer Diamondbacks], many days that feels impossibly optimistic. Baseball Reference gives them a 2.9% chance of making the playoffs, while Fangraphs elevates that to a robust 3.7% likelihood of postseason participation. The team run differential is the third lowest in all of MLB.
Yes, the season is just over 1/3 complete, but as Yogi observed about day games at Yankee Stadium, “it gets late early out there.” To borrow from, and paraphrase, Louisiana senator Kennedy, I’m not saying the Giants are the worst team in baseball, but they sure better hope nothing happens to the Angels and the Rockies.
The accusations of guilt flow like an Arabian haboob, a vicious, biting dust storm that fills the skies and consumes the senses. Among them:
* The bullpen has significant flaws.
* The manager is a college guy with no MLB experience.
* The coaching staff is still finding its collective feet. *
* The offense is swing happy and seemingly shuns walks.
* The back end of the rotation is suspect.
* The big-contract players are not earning their keep at the plate and in the field.
* The best prospect in the system, Bryce Eldridge, is platooning against left-handers.
And so on.
To add salt to the figurative wound, former top prospect Kyle Harrison was sent to Boston as a key piece of the Devers deal and has now blossomed with Milwaukee. He was struggling in his early major league tenure, even prompting some to whisper the “bust” word. Yet, were there no such person as Jacob Misiorowsky, Harrison would now be the staff ace for the Brewers.
Ah, what might have been?
The Giants have only Landon Roupp and Casey Schmitt remaining from the Farhan Zaidi days, so it is impossible to blame the former regime. The burden of righting the ship falls squarely on President of Baseball Operations Buster Posey. Before attempting that, though, he probably needs to figure out exactly what needs repair.
When he accepted the job in 2025, Posey was upfront in his desire to re-wire the player development approach across the organization. Easing away from an analytics-driven philosophy concerning roster and lineup construction and minor league philosophy, Posey directed that every level should focus mastering the basics like defense, moving runners over, throwing strikes, and the like.
In March, low-A San Jose manager Ydwin Villegas told a reporter that the priorities are now, finally, in place. Additionally, Posey brought in another old-school ex-teammate, Randy Winn, to run the entire player development pipeline. Will it work? Unfortunately for the Giants, such tectonic shifts take time, certainly more than a couple of seasons, and can’t be defensibly judged until the A-ballers of today make their mark in the majors.
One of the most glaring issues that Posey must still confront is scouting. All the player development in the world will not matter if the talent isn’t available. There do not appear to be any Lincecums, Bumgarners, or Poseys down on the farm.
2020 first rounder Patrick Bailey was recently sent to Cleveland because he simply forgot how to hit a baseball. Heliot Ramos did make an All-Star team but is consistently inconsistent. 2018 number two overall pick Joey Bart is now a Pirate. Hunter Bishop is an unclaimed free agent. , And so on.
Scouting directors Michael Holmes, Joe Salermo, and Felix Peguero are each highly experienced baseball men, lifers in a game that demands unrelenting work. Unfortunately, there is not much success, to date, due to that work. The string of never-will-be players is uncomfortably long. Luis Matos, Marco Luciano, Brett Wisely, Camilio Doval, Will Bednar. Hunter Bailey. The list goes on.
There have been good moments, but no longer-term successes like those of the aforementioned stars of the 2010-2014 golden years. It seems reasonable to conclude that the Giants are getting out-scouted, both domestically and overseas, and thus the level of talent in the minors is dangerously low.
The collective opinion of the system went from fourteenth ranked [by MLB] in 2023 to 28th by mid-2025. Several of Posey’s deals have almost certainly improved the system to some degree, but MLB still gauges the Giants as mid-pack. System rankings are arbitrary and created by outsiders, but they do offer relative perspective.
This is a difficult position for the Giants, given that two division rivals, the Padres and the Dodgers, are widely considered to have elite farm systems and talent pools. The future may be a bit turbulent for the Giants in the National League West.
“Wicked” problems are those that have no precise formulation [experts can’t even agree on the precise definition of the problem], have better-or-worse solutions instead of right-or-wrong results, are all unique due to complex interdependencies with an array of external constraints and boundaries, and can often be considered a symptom of another problem. They are, in a word, nasty.
That is the nature of Buster Posey’s challenge. There are neither permanent nor easy solutions, but the game doesn’t care. Perhaps the best he can do is pick a path and stick to it, for better or worse. But something must change, because the expectations of the fanbase will not fade.
Posey was part of the greatest era in San Francisco Giants’ history. Ironically, he helped set the standard for excellence by which he will now be judged.
Bill Johnson has contributed over 50 essays to SABR’s Biography Project and presented papers at the 2011 Cooperstown Symposium on Baseball and American Culture, the 2017 and 2023 Jerry Malloy Negro League Conferences, among others. He has authored a biography of Hal Trosky (McFarland and Co., 2017), an article about Negro American League All-Star Art “Superman” Pennington in the journal Black Ball, and publishes a Substack newsletter “Baseball Marks the Time” among his various outlets. He is on ‘X’: @BaseballSolon.
* In a bid to help the coaching staff find its feet, the Giants hired five-time Gold Glove former outfielder Gary Pettis to take over the third base coaching line. Pettis succeeds Hector Borg, whom the Giants reassigned following a series of runner sends and holds considered dubious in most polite terms. Ron Wotus held the position until a full-time hire could be made, not wanting the job on a permanent basis, according to several reports.—Ed.
Extra Innings: What They Said
On why baseball’s best pre-COVID defensive player disappeared
Baseball, when you’re doing good, is fun. When you’re not, it’s a little stressful, you know? I needed a little break . . . I needed a mental break. I didn’t think I wanted to do all the stuff to rehab and come back, so I decided I was done . . .
I never really cared for All-Star games, never really cared for the Hall of Fame. It’s cool. Like I recognize the accolades are special. But it never really pushed me. I wanted to be good. I wanted to help my team win.
—Andrelton Simmons, an eleven-year major league veteran, now playing again in the Mexican League at 36, to The Athletic’s Sam Blum.
[H]is defense had the chance to put him on one of the sport’s most unique trajectories, one that, if he had kept up a similar pace, could have put him in the conversation for an Ozzie Smith-like Hall of Fame berth. Simply put, he was among the greatest defensive shortstops to ever play the game.
His 28 defensive WAR ranks 13th all-time, despite having by far the fewest games played among the first 49 names on that list. His 201 defensive runs saved is the highest for a shortstop since the metric was created in 2003. Every number reveals the same undeniable greatness.
Simmons opted out late in COVID-shortened 2020 season to seek help amid depression and thoughts of suicide, he told The Orange County Register at the time. He returned to play for the Twins in 2021.
And in 2022, after just 35 games, amid a debilitating shoulder injury, he was DFA’d from the Cubs and disappeared from the game.
—Sam Blum.
. . .
Know Your Editors
Here’s the Pitch is published daily except Sundays and holidays. Benjamin Chase [gopherben@gmail.com] handles the Monday issue with Dan Freedman [dfreedman@lionsgate.com] editing Tuesday and Jeff Kallman [easyace1955@outlook.com] at the helm Wednesday and Thursday. Original editor Dan Schlossberg [ballauthor@gmail.com], does the weekend editions on Friday and Saturday. Former editor Elizabeth Muratore [nymfan97@gmail.com] is now co-director [with Benjamin Chase and Jonathan Becker] of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America, which publishes this newsletter and the annual ACTA book of the same name. Readers are encouraged to contribute comments, articles, and letters to the editor. HtP reserves the right to edit for brevity, clarity, and good taste.