1 At-Bat That Changed The Course Of The 2022 World Series
In today's issue, we examine one critical moment during Game 5 of this year's Fall Classic that may have permanently handed momentum to the eventual champions.
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Pregame Pepper: “Mic Drop” Moments From 2022 MLB Playoffs
Leading Off
The One At-Bat That Sealed The World Series Win For The Houston Astros
By Russ Walsh
As a longtime, long-suffering Phillies fan, the team’s recent run to the World Series was both surprising and exhilarating in equal measure. The club’s ultimate loss in the World Series to a powerful Houston Astros team was disappointing, but could not severely dim the glow of the Phillies’ accomplishments.
Philadelphia had defied the odds just to get to the Series, defeating the favored St. Louis Cardinals in the Wild Card Series, the Atlanta Braves in the Division Series, and the San Diego Padres in the National League Championship Series. The better team won the World Series, but the Phillies put up a battle. If one at-bat in Game 5 had gone differently, the Series may have turned out differently as well.
For me, Game 5 was the critical game of the series. I thought going into the game that the winner would go on to win the series. By Game 5, several patterns had become clear. The Phillies’ two top pitchers, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, were vulnerable. Astros ace Justin Verlander was vulnerable, as was No. 3 starter Lance McCullers Jr. The Phillies had shown they could not hit either Framber Valdez or Cristian Javier. Valdez was lined up to pitch Game 6 against Wheeler in Houston, making an Astros win likely. If the Phillies could win Game 5, they could force a Game 7 matchup between Ranger Suárez, who had shut down the Astros in Game 3, against the shaky McCullers (or Javier on short rest).
Games 3 and 4, played at the Phillies’ home field of Citizens Bank Park, were microcosms of Philadelphia’s strengths and weaknesses. In Game 3, the Phillies hit the Astros and McCullers with a mighty home run barrage, mashing five dingers. They combined the power display with five shutout innings from Suárez and effective bullpen work to win easily, 7-0, and take a 2-1 series lead. In Game 4, Javier and three Houston relievers silenced the Phillies’ booming bats, twirling a combined no-hitter to beat the Phillies and Nola, 5-0.
In Game 5 at the “Bank,” Verlander faced off against Phillies No. 4 starter Noah Syndergaard. Verlander pitched much better than he had in Game 1, but Syndergaard was able to pretty much match him through three innings. He gave up consecutive hits to the first two hitters to fall behind, 1-0, but Kyle Schwarber smashed a solo shot off Verlander to tie the score leading off the bottom of the first. Phillies manager Rob Thomson stuck with Syndergaard perhaps one batter too long, and the eventual World Series MVP Jeremy Peña led off the fourth inning by hitting a hanging curveball for a solo home run. Verlander finished five innings and the Astros’ and Phillies’ bullpens kept the score at 2-1 through seven innings.
In the top of the eighth, the Astros scratched out a critical insurance run. Seranthony Domínguez walked Jose Altuve and allowed a Peña hit-and-run single that moved Altuve to third. Robertson replaced Domínguez and Yordan Alvarez grounded out to first base, scoring Altuve. With the score now 3-1, the Phillies rallied in the bottom half of the inning.
Reliever Rafael Montero took the mound for the Astros and walked Nick Castellanos and Bryson Stott around a strikeout of Alec Bohm. Jean Segura then lined a single to right field that scored Castellanos and sent Stott to third. The score was 3-2 and the tying run was 90 feet away with only one out.
With the left-handed-hitting Brandon Marsh coming to the plate, Astros manager Dusty Baker decided to bring in closer Ryan Pressly. Marsh was the newest player in the Phillies’ lineup. He had come over in August in a trade deadline deal with the Los Angeles Angels to strengthen the Phillies’ center-field defense and had shown improved ability as a hitter, bating .286 in 41 games. In this situation, a fly ball, a ground ball, any kind of contact, was all that was needed to give Stott a chance to score the tying run. Pressly started Marsh with an 88 mph cutter up in the zone. Marsh swung mightily and missed. The second pitch was another cutter, this time a little low and in. Again, Marsh took a big swing and missed.
At this point, FOX Sports analyst John Smoltz said, “Marsh needs a short swing. He has to find a way to put the ball in play.” Marsh could not. On the next pitch, another low cutter in the strike zone, Marsh again took a big swing and missed. Two outs. Pressly wriggled out of the inning when Schwarber smashed a grounder down the first-base line that Trey Mancini snagged for the final out of the inning. Pressly finished off the Phillies in the ninth with the help of a great running catch by Chas McCormack in center field on a J.T. Realmuto drive and the Astros had taken the critical Game 5 and were well on their way to a Series win.
What if Marsh had gotten his bat on the ball? There was no guarantee that the Phillies would score and certainly no guarantee that they would go on to win the game. But that one at-bat, that one great chance to tie Game 5, was the Phillies’ last realistic chance, I believe, to take the World Series.
Game 6 played out pretty much as I expected. The Phillies still could not hit Valdez and, while Wheeler pitched better than he had in Game 2, he was lifted for lefty José Alvarado with two on in the sixth and Alvarez coming to the plate. Alvarez’ dramatic home run essentially ended the competition.
Even with the Game 6 loss, if the Phillies could have somehow eked out a win in Game 5, the Series would have moved a winner take all Game 7. I would have liked to have seen what the Phillies could have done in a Game 7 with Suárez on the mound against McCullers. It was not to be.
The better team won the Series, which is a good thing, I suppose. The Phillies improbably sent their fans on a wild postseason ride with a glorious run. All is right and in balance in the baseball world. And yet, I am left with this nagging feeling, that if Marsh could have made contact in that one crucial Game 5 at-bat, the Series might have concluded with a parade down Philadelphia’s Broad Street.
Ah, well. Wait ‘til next year!
Russ Walsh is a retired teacher, diehard Phillies fan, and student of the history of baseball with a special interest in the odd, quirky, and once in a lifetime events that happen on the baseball field. He writes for both the SABR BioProject and the SABR Games Project and maintains his own blog The Faith of a Phillies Fan. You can reach Russ on Twitter @faithofaphilli1.